ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

What exactly is an anti-cyclone?

Anti-cyclone is high pressure (and clockwise in the northern hemisphere) and if situation over top of a tropical cyclone at upper levels, can aide in ventilation and strengthening.

Speaking of, if you watch the high cloud elements west of the center and south of Puerto Rico, they are now out of the southeast, whereas they were out of the south earlier.

[Aric Dunn]

I agree the system appears to be organizing this afternoon, albeit from a poor baseline. it will be very interesting to see if this can persist as we head toward Dmax.

first time in its life that convection has actually developed over the center and not just being covered by high clouds lol..

[ozonepete]

What exactly is an anti-cyclone?

A high pressure area where winds blow in a clockwise direction around the center. A hurricane is a large cyclone where winds blow counterclockwise around the center. But up at around 200 - 300 mb or 30,000 feet and up, a well developed hurricane has an anti-cyclone (high pressure) are above it. That anti-cyclone takes all of that extremely fast uprushing air and blows it out away from the storm. So it's the exhaust system. Without it the hurricane would be like a fireplace where you covered over the chimney - the fire would die out.


Fixed "hurricane is large cyclone" lol

[adam0983]

Does anyone think Florida can't get hit with Tropical Storm Erika at all and it goes how to sea. What kind of conditionals can we expect in Miami,Broward,Palm Beach County based on the current track.

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone think Florida can't get hit with Tropical Storm Erika at all and it goes how to sea. What kind of conditionals can we expect in Miami,Broward,Palm Beach County based on the current track.

based on projected path hurricane force gust at least on the coast and possibly tropical storm forc gust on the west coast of Florida but that could change in later outlooks

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[summersquall]

Greetings all, so good and comforting to see all the familiar names and some new folks. Was thinking of Aric Tuesday night and am so glad to see him. Denver. Wow.

Getting a little anxious here. Lol. Better organized and quite large. Always a good time to reiterate that hurricanes aren't points on a map.

My best to all in the islands and PR.


N

[NDG]

Does anyone think Florida can't get hit with Tropical Storm Erika at all and it goes how to sea. What kind of conditionals can we expect in Miami,Broward,Palm Beach County based on the current track.

Going out to sea (Atlantic Ocean) is looking less and less likely, best option if it dies out which no model supports that right now.

[Hurricaneman]

I live in Florida near Clermont and am watching this as I'm expecting anything from 45mph wind to 115mph wind depending on path and potential intensification but am leaning towards the low end from the NHC path but as has been said things could change and likely will

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[USTropics]

To further illustrate that (and because everything is better visually enhanced!):

Anticyclones (Highs):


Tropical systems have converging air at the surface that rises:


So with Erika, when you see increasing divergence, it's a good indication an anticyclone is building:

[AutoPenalti]

Thanks guys, I learned more here in 3 hours than I ever had in my 6 months studying for myself. lol.

[Evil Jeremy]

It's safe to say by now that South Florida will be impacted by Erika, and likely most of the peninsula will be as well. I think the model flops are ending, or will end with the 00z runs with Gulfstream data.

Post 4444!

[rolltide]

It will interesting to see if the convection building over the center continues or if it gets blown off by shear again.

[hurricanedude]

so question for anyone who wants to go even further into the future......once Erika is done with florida...assuming it takes the northern track how far up the east coast does it ride b4 getting kicked out or is this one that could ride the whole coast all the way to maine?

[TheStormExpert]

It's safe to say by now that South Florida will be impacted by Erika, and likely most of the peninsula will be as well. I think the model flops are ending, or will end with the 00z runs with Gulfstream data.

Post 4444!

It's not 100% certain but with the 3-Day cone slowly creeping north it's becoming more likely right now.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the divergence maps it looks like an anticyclone is popping up over Erika, could lead to more intensification than expected before Puerto Rico so those in PR need to keep tabs on recent developments of Erika

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TAD]

How do models treat southern Florida? There's a lot of warm water from Okeechobee & south. Is that taken into account or is it considered land? The further south the easier it is to tap into the warm GOM, too. I think this storm will be strengthening as it rolls up the FL east coast.

[CronkPSU]

I live in Florida near Clermont and am watching this as I'm expecting anything from 45mph wind to 115mph wind depending on path and potential intensification but am leaning towards the low end from the NHC path but as has been said things could change and likely will

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I will never say never after Charley but doubtful we see anything over high tropical force winds in the Orlando metro area...I am bit closer to the East Coast (Avalon Park) so we are definitely monitoring it and making our preps for a Cat 1-2 just to be on the safe side

[SunnyThoughts]

This is just heartbreaking.


Authorities in Dominica continue to await the arrival of two rescue helicopters from Trinidad to assist in evaluating the situation in Petite Savanne where there are reports of scores of casualties; which are yet to be confirmed.

[JGrin87]

What exactly is an anti-cyclone?

A high pressure area where winds blow in a clockwise direction around the center. A hurricane is a large cyclone where winds blow counterclockwise around the center. But up at around 200 - 300 mb or 30,000 feet and up, a well developed hurricane has an anti-cyclone (high pressure) are above it. That anti-cyclone takes all of that extremely fast uprushing air and blows it out away from the storm. So it's the exhaust system. Without it the hurricane would be like a fireplace where you covered over the chimney - the fire would die out.


Fixed "hurricane is large cyclone" lol

Is this (i.e. the high pressure area above the cyclone) the reason an eye develops or clears out all convection/clouds in the center?

[Hurricaneman]

I live in Florida near Clermont and am watching this as I'm expecting anything from 45mph wind to 115mph wind depending on path and potential intensification but am leaning towards the low end from the NHC path but as has been said things could change and likely will

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I will never say never after Charley but doubtful we see anything over high tropical force winds in the Orlando metro area...I am bit closer to the East Coast (Avalon Park) so we are definitely monitoring it and making our preps for a Cat 1-2 just to be on the safe side

yep, I have a lot of non perishable foods and lots of water and batteries just in case and if nothing happens we don't have to buy that stuff for a while