ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bizzles]

I have some local pictures from some islands in the Bahamas coming in. Can I post them in here or is there a different thread?

There is a local obs thread up now

[hawkeh]

Most of these are from Long Island a couple from Acklins I believe. Long Island feeling some flooding effects already and have not got the worst of it.

[EquusStorm]

I think we definitely got our visible eye developing now. The last couple of frames at least.

[CrazyC83]

This is a more vulnerable angle for the Bahamas as well since few storms come from the north? Meaning that less mitigation is likely to take place?

[northjaxpro]

The satellite presentation right now of Joaquin is just tremendous. A very well developed major tropical cyclone. Looks like we have a pinhole eye feature. Joaquin is a Cat 4 now in my opinion and I think he will make a run to attempt to reavh Cat 5 status in the next 12-24 hours before this long anticipated turn to the north finally happens.

[NDG]

wow the storm surge looks bad!

[terstorm1012]

This is a more vulnerable angle for the Bahamas as well since few storms come from the north? Meaning that less mitigation is likely to take place?

yes, especially long island. To my knowledge Samana Cay where the storm is right now is not inhabited but Long Island has a population of 6,000 people. Very concerned for them.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011412
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 37 20151001
140300 2235N 07225W 6961 03093 9992 +084 +079 162055 055 051 014 00
140330 2237N 07225W 6970 03078 9978 +087 +082 160056 058 051 013 00
140400 2239N 07225W 6963 03085 9990 +081 +081 161057 058 050 014 00
140430 2241N 07225W 6969 03080 9993 +081 +081 160056 057 051 013 00
140500 2244N 07225W 6970 03078 0000 +080 +080 159056 058 050 012 00
140530 2246N 07225W 6967 03080 0005 +082 +082 160049 053 052 013 03
140600 2248N 07225W 6966 03082 0001 +089 +089 168046 048 052 014 03
140630 2251N 07226W 6963 03087 9985 +092 +092 181045 046 053 012 03
140700 2253N 07226W 6973 03075 9987 +091 +091 172049 051 053 012 03
140730 2255N 07226W 6976 03072 0005 +084 +084 163054 056 051 018 03
140800 2258N 07226W 6960 03093 9999 +087 +087 165050 055 051 015 03
140830 2300N 07226W 6979 03069 9993 +091 +091 165055 058 054 012 00
140900 2302N 07226W 6962 03089 9980 +095 +095 167055 059 053 011 03
140930 2304N 07226W 6974 03074 9984 +096 +096 170058 061 055 013 00
141000 2307N 07226W 6959 03092 9982 +098 +098 167057 061 054 012 03
141030 2309N 07226W 6966 03085 9988 +095 +095 165052 055 055 011 00
141100 2311N 07226W 6961 03092 9971 +096 +096 164051 054 056 010 00
141130 2313N 07226W 6980 03068 9968 +096 +094 154060 064 057 009 00
141200 2316N 07226W 6968 03085 9957 +106 +090 146056 056 058 009 00
141230 2318N 07226W 6966 03086 9947 +113 +088 141054 056 058 008 00
$$
;

[Jevo]

Not for nothing but this was supposed to pass well East of Nassau.. That is a heavily populated island not really taking serious precautions right now. The brains at the NHC probably know a lot more than I do, but that seems a bit dangerous.

[EquusStorm]

Yeah that's definitely a pinhole developing. Thought it was just another weak spot in the convection but it is right over the center and shows up in all IR views. Amazing looking symmetric storm. Will be category four very soon.

[Frank2]

That might be storm surge, combined with lunar tides - we are still experiencing significant coastal flooding in Miami and Fort Lauderdale due to the lunar tides (and increases in ocean levels - everyone the media interviewed in the area agree this is the worst they've ever seen)...

Back to Joaquin...

Frank

[BobHarlem]

There's a personal weather station in Pitts town on Crooked island (SW of where Joaquin is now) reporting 76mph+ winds (And its still working.. right now anyway)

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... =ICROOKED2

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah that's definitely a pinhole developing. Thought it was just another weak spot in the convection but it is right over the center and shows up in all IR views. Amazing looking symmetric storm. Will be category four very soon.

I don't think so. I haven't looked at microwave imagery yet to determine what the storm's structure looks like, but from what I gather by looking at visible satellite, its probably about 20-30 mi across. It only looks like a pinhole eye because just a small portion of the eye briefly became cloud free.

[tolakram]

The higher rez euro shows Joaquin stopping its SW movement right on Long Island and turning north. The latest run has the center riding up Long island. I really hope those folks are prepared.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah that's definitely a pinhole developing. Thought it was just another weak spot in the convection but it is right over the center and shows up in all IR views. Amazing looking symmetric storm. Will be category four very soon.

I don't think so. I haven't looked at microwave imagery yet to determine what the storm's structure looks like, but from what I gather by looking at visible satellite, its probably about 20-30 mi across. It only looks like a pinhole eye because just a small portion of the eye briefly became cloud free.

Yeah , this is a good observation. The eye is somewhat still partially covered by clouds. Eventually, the eye will clear out imo. Extremely impressive tropical cyclone.

[NDG]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011422
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 38 20151001
141300 2320N 07226W 6973 03074 9943 +114 +088 144054 055 057 007 00
141330 2322N 07227W 6971 03079 9938 +118 +082 145058 059 058 008 00
141400 2324N 07227W 6970 03075 9936 +117 +084 150056 058 058 009 00
141430 2327N 07227W 6961 03086 9924 +127 +077 156053 056 054 010 00
141500 2329N 07227W 6964 03081 9915 +133 +077 161055 058 055 009 00
141530 2331N 07227W 6953 03090 9934 +113 +082 158063 067 051 008 00
141600 2333N 07227W 6983 03050 9958 +092 +087 152063 067 046 007 00
141630 2335N 07227W 6964 03067 9925 +113 +076 158072 073 042 004 00
141700 2338N 07227W 6969 03068 9946 +101 +076 157066 073 040 004 00
141730 2340N 07227W 6974 03056 9932 +109 +069 158067 069 041 005 00
141800 2342N 07227W 6954 03089 9938 +109 +066 155060 069 043 005 00
141830 2345N 07227W 6980 03057 9940 +110 +066 151053 055 048 005 00
141900 2347N 07227W 6963 03083 9954 +100 +067 149050 051 049 003 00
141930 2349N 07227W 6975 03062 9952 +100 +066 152051 053 045 004 00
142000 2351N 07227W 6963 03081 9966 +092 +070 144048 050 044 006 00
142030 2353N 07227W 6970 03073 9964 +094 +069 147048 050 043 005 00
142100 2355N 07228W 6969 03077 9965 +094 +068 146049 050 047 005 00
142130 2357N 07228W 6967 03082 9965 +098 +066 145050 051 046 006 00
142200 2400N 07228W 6968 03082 9961 +102 +062 145053 055 046 003 00
142230 2402N 07228W 6966 03084 9955 +108 +060 146055 056 042 004 00
$$
;

Someone else take over for now.

[Yellow Evan]

This eye is not a pinhole, but seems to be warming/clearing.

[OuterBanker]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

All hail the European! Apperently it has scored as the winner again. Now feeling better about an out to sea scenario. The nor'easter is another story.

[Ken Lucas]

All hail the European! Apperently it has scored as the winner again. Now feeling better about an out to sea scenario. The nor'easter is another story.

Isn't it way too early to say for sure?