ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Alyono]

EC has a devastating hit on the central Bahamas. Looks to be a cat 3

[BobHarlem]

Watches and warnings should be up now for the Bahamas based on that Euro run.

[gatorcane]

EC moving it ENE away from Bahamas at hour 96

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like out to sea at 102 hours with a 996mb low over SC. Very odd looking again.

I always thought TC's liked to gravitate towards upper low's or areas of low pressure. I guess I don't know much .

[LarryWx]

Bahamas, Bermuda hits again by Euro

[Alyono]

EC doing same thing as the MU. Breaks off a piece of Joaquin and forms that into the new low on the East Coast

[gatorcane]

The GFS and Euro are in pretty good agreement then the past couple of runs. Good news as the two best models in the world do not show this impacting the U.S. - saved by a huge trough. Of course plenty of uncertainty but I don't remember with the consensus of those two models was wrong.

[Alyono]

The GFS and Euro are in pretty good agreement then the past couple of runs. Good news as the two best models in the world do not show this impacting the U.S. - saved by a huge trough.

lets wait and see what the ensembles say. If the ensembles are still for a landfall, then the deterministic runs are out to lunch

[Alyono]

The GFS and Euro are in pretty good agreement then the past couple of runs. Good news as the two best models in the world do not show this impacting the U.S. - saved by a huge trough. Of course plenty of uncertainty but I don't remember with the consensus of those two models was wrong.

oh I do, just last week with Dujuan. Had it turning NE south of Japan

[PTrackerLA]

It's literally amazing how lucky the United States is every time!

[ronjon]

It's literally amazing how lucky the United States is every time!

Don't sound the "all safe to return" yet bell! The two big globals have swung and missed plenty this tropical season.

[Alyono]

EC actually develops a new TS off of the east coast in 6 days...

[xironman]

I still think the 500mb pattern brings it in, al la the poor old CMC. Maybe it is because I have spent so much time watch Northeasters....

[TheStormExpert]

EC actually develops a new TS off of the east coast in 6 days...

Should we raise the BS flag?

[tolakram]

I think this Euro ensemble mean plot shows it best.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2015092900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Note how most (the mean) of the ensembles have the lowest pressure close to the coast? This is from the 0Z run, 12Z will be out once the run finishes.

[Hurricane_Apu]

I'm trying to figure out what exactly that Euro run is trying to depict.
I can understand a NNE track caused by a positively tilted trough. But a storm moving nearly due east near 25 or 30 north? That's positively Lenny-esque. What is supposed to be causing that? Is it interaction with the extratropical system to the north?

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS Ensembles.

[HeeBGBz]

I was looking at 99's model and saw that they have it crossing Florida into the Atlantic and then south. Would Joaquin absorb it and move north. Or move south and see it as a ridge or some such.

[TheStormExpert]

I think this Euro ensemble mean plot shows it best.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2015092900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Note how most (the mean) of the ensembles have the lowest pressure close to the coast? This is from the 0Z run, 12Z will be out once the run finishes.

http://i.imgur.com/fo18fvq.png

http://i.imgur.com/d7Dlp9w.png

Yes tolakram 12z Euro Ensembles will be key!

[Alyono]

the 12Z MU ensemble says there may be a ZERO percent chance of the operational MU verifying