EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

[Ntxw]

We're going to get some stunning visibles in the morning. Just wow, she deserves the cat 5 status, would be a shame not to have her make it.

[Yellow Evan]

I think Jimena 09 was a Cat 5, just there wasn't anything conclusive (Recon supported 130-135, eye warmed when Recon left but T-numbers didn't go past 6.5).

Pretty creepy that Jimena this year is also a Cat 5 wanna be.

I believe Dvorak under estimated because of the pin-hole eye.

During it's first peak, yes, Jimena probs reached 130-140 knts then IMO

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, looks like you have a new favorite!

[Kingarabian]

Considering just how thick the CDO is, if the gray wraps half way around, I expect a cat.5 classification.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, looks like you have a new favorite!

Yeah, it's awesome. Cat 5's are rare and even better when you can track one that isn't any harm to land then you just want to see one go as near to perfection as possible . Would also be cool when she racks up ACE like crazy and she'll be around for awhile like Yellow Evan said.

Speaking of ACE, Jimena will likely get the 2015 EPAC season ACE to near and probably above the yearly average.

[Yellow Evan]

No changes here.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 12:15:06 N Lon : 124:19:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 934.7mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +11.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

[Ntxw]

[Yellow Evan]

DT from SAB only 6.5.

EP, 13, 201508290600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1220N, 12440W, , 1, 115, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, AS, IM, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.5 BO EYE MET=5.5 PT=6.0 FTBO CON

[Extratropical94]

125 knots

13E JIMENA 150829 0600 12.2N 124.4W EPAC 125 943

[Extratropical94]

They went with 130 knots, category 5 is forecast for +24h (30/06Z).

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...JIMENA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 124.8W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Jimena is an impressive hurricane on satellite imagery tonight with
a symmetric central dense overcast, warm eye, and fanning cirrus
outflow in all quadrants. The current intensity estimate is 130 kt,
a blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS.
While large-scale environmental factors are still favorable for
further strengthening this weekend, Jimena will likely go through an
eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so, which can cause
fluctuations in intensity that are impossible to forecast. However,
Jimena is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane for the next
several days. A slow decay is forecast by late Sunday since oceanic
and atmospheric conditions will only gradually become less
conducive, with a more pronounced weakening expected by mid-week.
The new forecast is primarily a blend of the previous one and the
statistical models in the first two days, with a heavier weight on
the intensity consensus at days 3 to 5.

The initial motion estimate is 270/8. Jimena's heading should
become west-northwestward later today and continue in that general
direction for the next several days while it moves around the
subtropical ridge. As Jimena nears a break in the ridge around
140W, a significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96
hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new
track forecast has been moved only slightly southward, similar to
the adjustment made on the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 12.3N 124.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 12.5N 126.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 13.3N 128.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 16.2N 137.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 17.7N 141.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Cyclenall]

Wow that was fast, its already going downhill. Jimena is just a fierce sounding name, I guess its not that wild that 09 and 15 are CAT5's unofficially of course .

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS delays the trough and has it coming into the CPAC possibly increasing its lifetime.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 12:11:30 N Lon : 124:56:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 934.7mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +14.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Appears to about to undergo an ERC.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ21 KNES 291224
TCSENP

A. 13E (JIMENA)

B. 29/1200Z

C. 12.4N

D. 125.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY WITH DT=6.5 BASED ON WARM
MED GRAY EYE EMBEDDED AND SURROUNDED IN BLACK. MET=6.0 ON RAPID CURVE
BUT PAT=6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Yellow Evan]

Still 130.


EP, 13, 2015082912, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1251W, 130, 936, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 80, 100, 1008, 220, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JIMENA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 13, 2015082912, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1251W, 130, 936, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 30, 50, 1008, 220, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JIMENA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 13, 2015082912, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1251W, 130, 936, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1008, 220, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JIMENA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,

[Extratropical94]

Still 130.


EP, 13, 2015082912, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1251W, 130, 936, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 80, 100, 1008, 220, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JIMENA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 13, 2015082912, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1251W, 130, 936, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 30, 50, 1008, 220, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JIMENA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 13, 2015082912, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1251W, 130, 936, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1008, 220, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JIMENA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,

Makes her the strongest pacific hurricane this year both wind and pressure wise. Andres had a minimum pressure of 937 mbar.

[Ntxw]

Cloud tops aren't as cold as last night but still impressive. Sucks Himawari 8 doesn't look here in this part of the Pacific otherwise we could get some neat shots from that satellite.