SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TXPS21 KNES 121229
TCSWSP

A. 17P (PAM)

B. 12/1132Z

C. 14.3S

D. 169.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN CMG AND SURROUNDED BY CDG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

There is absolutely no bias for anything other than 140 knots based on the data.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPS41 PHFO 121117
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1117 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

A. Tropical cyclone Pam.

B. 12/1032Z.

C. 13.9°S.

D. 169.8°E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HR.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Ow eye temp with cmg surrounding shade with minimum width of 30 nm yields a data t of 6.5. No eye adjustment with cdg as surrounding ring temp. MET and pattern t agree. Final T based on data t.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Kinel.

CPHC preventing a Cat 5.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at the JTWC archives, only 9 cyclones have reached category 5 strength, 140 knots, in the South Pacific...

Last one was Cyclone Ului in March 2010...

Can Pam become the 10th?

Already is a cat5 best tracks is lagging look to 160+knots over next 24 hours and possibly the owning TIP officially.

It won't IMO pass Tip in pressure. 160 knt winds won't shock me though.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2015 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 14:20:21 S Lon : 169:51:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 908.9mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -16.4C Cloud Region Temp : -86.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.2 degrees

[euro6208]

Looking at the JTWC archives, only 9 cyclones have reached category 5 strength, 140 knots, in the South Pacific...

Last one was Cyclone Ului in March 2010...

Can Pam become the 10th?

Already is a cat5 best tracks is lagging look to 160+knots over next 24 hours and possibly the owning TIP officially.

It won't IMO pass Tip in pressure. 160 knt winds won't shock me though.

For all we know, Super Typhoon Haiyan at 175 knots likely was the record holder but no recon...895mb is too high...

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2015 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 14:20:21 S Lon : 169:51:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 908.9mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -16.4C Cloud Region Temp : -86.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.2 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC ADT:

2015MAR12 121400 7.0 904.5 140.0 6.8 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF -16.43 -86.08 EYE 19 IR 56.4 -14.34 -169.86 COMBO MTSAT2 33.2

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2015 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 13:50:40 S Lon : 169:55:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 909.0mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.0 4.8

Center Temp : -78.0C Cloud Region Temp : -86.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.0 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Already is a cat5 best tracks is lagging look to 160+knots over next 24 hours and possibly the owning TIP officially.

It won't IMO pass Tip in pressure. 160 knt winds won't shock me though.

For all we know, Super Typhoon Haiyan at 175 knots likely was the record holder but no recon...895mb is too high...

As what a promet said, Haiyan's winds may even be 180 kts but pressure is unlikely to beat Tip due to size, the STR presence and fast motion of movement

[Yellow Evan]

Hoping it can drift further east to to middle but unlikely.


http://imageshack.com/a/img538/3950/lCWSYy.gif

Pam has extreme negative 100c- cold top towers firing it's evident by AVN sat-pic its still getting the massive lift in the storms as the GFS and EC has been portraying in the sub 900mb runs. AVN tells the story atm this system has a lot more to give its still intensifying.

Agreed. A bit away from its peak IMO.

[euro6208]

Peak intensity of 150 knots just east of those islands

WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 169.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 169.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.0S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.7S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.3S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 32.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 169.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED EVEN
TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 20-NM EYE AS CENTRAL CONVECTION
DEEPENED FURTHER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND, PHFO.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
EASILY OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 150 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS,
AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL HAVE VERY INTENSE 80-KNOT WINDS WHEN IT
BECOMES A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Pam's earlier huge eye is becoming pinhole like...

[Yellow Evan]

Insanely cold cloud tops. Very close to T8.0 and is at minimum 7.5.

I'd post a picture but I'm on my phone.

Cycloneye, can we do the pictures on first page thing like we've done with intense TC's in the past.

[talkon]

Is Pam's eye a bit tilted?
BTW, AFAIK it is (as of 1332Z pic) still T7.0

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The part we've all been waiting for...

[Yellow Evan]

Is Pam's eye a bit tilted?
BTW, AFAIK it is (as of 1332Z pic) still T7.0

I'd give it a 1.0 eye adjustment due to the insane cloud tops embedded in the eye. Possibly start at 6.5 do due CMG cloud tops at least .5 degree.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 27 issued 1340 UTC Thursday 12 March 2015



The forecast path shown above is the Nadi's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.


Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM

Details:
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm March 12 5 14.2S 169.8E 55
+6hr 6 pm March 12 5 15.0S 169.6E 85
+12hr 12 am March 13 5 15.9S 169.4E 110
+18hr 6 am March 13 5 16.9S 169.3E 140
+24hr 12 pm March 13 5 18.0S 169.5E 165
+36hr 12 am March 14 5 20.6S 170.3E 225
+48hr 12 pm March 14 5 23.9S 172.3E 285
+60hr 12 am March 15 5 27.7S 175.4E 375
+72hr 12 pm March 15 3 31.6S 178.4E 465

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa


The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

[talkon]

PGTW is 7.0

TPPS10 PGTW 121517
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM)
B. 12/1432Z
C. 14.66S
D. 169.72E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0950Z 13.92S 169.83E MMHS
12/1036Z 13.92S 169.97E MMHS
BERMEA

[Yellow Evan]

Raw ADT from CMISS is 7.3.

[Yellow Evan]

8.1.4 ADT is at 7.5.