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cycloneye
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#161 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:22 am

4th of June run of 12z GFS

Looks like a bullish run.I will post timeframes of the run to not make many posts.

102 hours=It starts to develop a low pressure.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

126 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

144 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

162 hours=Below 1000 mbs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

180 hours=997 mbs just north of Cuba and SE of Miami.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif
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#162 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:25 am

their say here that we going rainy weekend the weatherman here in miami are picking up on gfs because their say we could have rainy next week
Last edited by floridasun78 on Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#163 Postby boca » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:26 am

I wonder if the trigger mechanism will be the wave in the Atlantic or that area south of Panama.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#164 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:26 am

boca wrote:I wonder if the trigger mechanism will be the wave in the Atlantic or that area south of Panama.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg


See my post about that at page 8.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#165 Postby boca » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:35 am

At 162hrs it looks like the low is 150 to 200 miles west of the 06z run. A member on another board said the GFS is too far east and will adjust west as time goes by.
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#166 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:38 am

12z GFS is quite aggressive in forming the low and it looks quite strong by GFS standards...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#167 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:39 am

ok so we start believing gfs that low is going form nw carribbean??? by when will we see storm forming in that area???
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#168 Postby boca » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:41 am

At 180 to 192 hr timeframe the low is over Andros Island on the 12z run.The 06z run that the low moving thru the Central/SE Bahamas. That's a big jump.Once it forms the run to run inconsistencies will resolve itself.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#169 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:41 am

I think I will stop at 180 as you can see at my post at the top of page 9,because after that is fantasyland. or guessing game.A new thread will be made about this soon so the members can discuss about this.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#170 Postby boca » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:42 am

Gatorcane would be all over this a week ago, where is he?
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#171 Postby N2Storms » Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:46 am

12z GFS is quite aggressive in forming the low and it looks quite strong by GFS standards...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


From that run it would appear that it could ultimately end up being a threat to the Carolinas
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#172 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2009 5:52 pm

I am posting this loooooooong range run of GFS in a loop only to let the members see a EPAC development after 300 hours and then it crosses to the Caribbean.I give this 0% chance until it gets to 144 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#173 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 04, 2009 6:18 pm

Why 2 threads on this possible low development? We don't need a model discussion thread for next week's possible low and another thread to discuss the possible low development in the Caribbean. What else is there to talk about but model projections this far out, anyway?
Last edited by wxman57 on Thu Jun 04, 2009 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#174 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2009 6:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:Why 2 threads on this topic? If we're posting what this or that model says on the possible Caribbean Threat thread, then we don't need to post here, too.


This is a different system with the time frame after 300 hours vs the other one that we are posting at the other thread in much less time.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#175 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 04, 2009 6:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Why 2 threads on this topic? If we're posting what this or that model says on the possible Caribbean Threat thread, then we don't need to post here, too.


This is a different system with the time frame after 300 hours vs the other one that we are posting at the other thread in much less time.


I don't see a second system forecast by the GFS, cycloneye. The 12Z GFS develops a low east of Nicaragua on the 8th (Monday), takes it across Cuba on the 11th, then off the east U.S. Coast on the 15th and out to sea the 16th. Where's the 2nd development after the 16th? The posts here all (except your one post) talk about the development between 100-180 hrs (the Caribbean low next week).
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#176 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2009 6:30 pm

:uarrow: 57,this models thread was used to post all about the Caribbean system including model runs.But DESTRUCTION5 started a new thread about it and after that the members are now posting all about the Caribbean by next week in the other thread.That is why you see comments about it here until the new thread opened.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#177 Postby xironman » Sat Jun 06, 2009 3:35 am

First time I have noticed the GFS holding something together off the African coast. Sure it is the la-la land time frame, but that is what this thread is about.

Image
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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#178 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 07, 2009 11:55 am

We may see the first named system (Andres) in the Eastern Pacific if GFS is right in the long range,of course this is fantasyland.But if other models join by 144 hours,then this may come to fructition.

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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#179 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 09, 2009 7:25 am

What is that thing rolling off Africa? I know,I know the drill. :)

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Re: Long / Medium Range Models Thread

#180 Postby xironman » Fri Jun 12, 2009 6:21 am

The low that comes off the Carolina seems to detach and stick around for a while near the GS next week.

Image
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