ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

A center is now visible on this loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

If we can follow it and it rotates west then SW, etc then we know (I think) there are multiple vortices rotating around a larger center. Right now it appears to me moving NW, which would keep Erika close to track if this is the center.

If that center is the same one I circled in my image above, looks pretty much W to me on the movement.

That's the center, it was relocated this morning to the south...

IMO, going to go over PR and skirt DR... Keeps circulation center weak and goes farther west... Track west shift at 11am is my prediction... See my disclaimer below...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[BobHarlem]

anyone got a good radar link

I've been using http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?175 it has a long run loop which makes it easier to see movement (but not this crazy center reformation)

[shortwave]

either that or its opening up into a wave..

Given what recon is finding I'm thinking that may be occurring or will possibly occur around PR and DR. Either or it's poorly organized.

[msbee]

Dominica is reporting close to 9 inches of rain from Erika. They are in a state of emergency. Looks like lots of rebuilding will have to be done.

Sad and once again shows that it doesn't take a hurricane to mess up peoples lives. Any tropical system can mean business.

SFT

especially in the islands, where structures are not as solid. and Dominic has man many rivers which easily overflow with so much rain

[gatorcane]

That is a pretty big shift south, you got to think the models will shift west. The guidance is mostly just to the NE of Puerto Rico, doesn't look like it will come close to verifying. Of course there is land interaction now at play too.

[tolakram]

It should be poorly organized, most of the models show multiple centers and/or poor definition. What is the unknown, in my opinion, is if reorganization will pull Erika significantly off track.

[msbee]

anyone got a good radar link

Try this one.
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1440635457

this link also has radar

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

[Aric Dunn]

The fact that the center/vort is moving on a slight wsw vector leads me to believe there is multiple vorts in there somewhere or a reformation and that old center will die out... radar not showing much evidence of another center but the current one is rotating away from the convection.

[SouthFLTropics]

If that is the center then she is over a full latitude south of the 18z forecast point!!!

[drezee]

Based on recon, I almost feel like Erika has an elongated trough axis to the SW with an eddy "LLC" attached. She better get it right before the shear comes back. This is not a robust structure to tackle shear, let alone Hispaniola.

[tailgater]

Look where the convergence is and 850 vorticty

[ConvergenceZone]

either that or its opening up into a wave..

That would be pretty crazy to go from a 50 mph storm right to a wave. Not that it couldn't happen though I suppose.

[BucMan2]

what implications if any will this have on:
1. The Track ?
2. Intensity potential down the road?

[Aric Dunn]

being that its right over the radar.. watching the loops there might be another center/vort that developed (red circle) hard to be for sure but it would explain the current the motion of the present circ/vort. recon will be able to verify if they fly through this area.

[SouthFLTropics]

I do not envy the forecaster on duty at the NHC right now...tough call on the 11:00AM forecast and discussion.

SFT

[Aric Dunn]

also the center/vort shows up very nicely on here..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Dean4Storms]

@Dean4Storms: Dominica -- NOT Dominican Republic

Yes, Thanks! I caught that and edited my question to msbee.

[drezee]

I do not envy the forecaster on duty at the NHC right now...tough call on the 11:00AM forecast and discussion.

SFT

I would punt until the 5pm advisory. I would do a midpoint adjustment on the track between the previous position. I would need to know how the 12z models feel about the center reformation...

[BobHarlem]

I do not envy the forecaster on duty at the NHC right now...tough call on the 11:00AM forecast and discussion.

SFT

I would punt until the 5pm advisory. I would do a midpoint adjustment on the track between the previous position. I would need to know how the 12z models feel about the center reformation...

A situation like this is probably one ripe with internal disagreements, so punting is probably what they will do.

[Dean4Storms]

also the center/vort shows up very nicely on here..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Very disorganized and going to be a track shift westward, that isn't going north of PR!