ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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drezee
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#141 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:22 pm

The simulated IR look like Sandy on the CMC... not much convection left at landfall

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_21.png
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#142 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:30 pm

HWRF has this down to 927MB by hour 90. This is the strongest run yet of the HWRF. Yikes

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#143 Postby Siker » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:31 pm

HWRF looks like it may end up similar to the UKMET in track this run.
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#144 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:38 pm

gatorcane wrote:HWRF has this down to 927MB by hour 90. This is the strongest run yet of the HWRF. Yikes

http://i.imgur.com/X5PjeY5.png


a 927mb storm would usually be approaching Cat 5 right?
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Re: Re:

#145 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:39 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
gatorcane wrote:HWRF has this down to 927MB by hour 90. This is the strongest run yet of the HWRF. Yikes

http://i.imgur.com/X5PjeY5.png


a 927mb storm would usually be approaching Cat 5 right?


Given the large size of this, 927 would be a Cat 4 - also that shows about 120 kt surface winds.
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#146 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:39 pm

Look out as the 12Z HWRF has shifted south and is in line with the UKMET. Wow: :eek:

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Re: Re:

#147 Postby tatertawt24 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Can someone please post the 12z UKMET?


Here it is. It's in line with the EC & GFS ensembles.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/UK.JPG


Wow, imagine if this actually panned out. I can't think of any hurricanes off the top of my head that actually made landfall in Virginia.
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#148 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:41 pm

The 12Z HWRF landfall. 939MB.

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#149 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:43 pm

Holy smokes! Has Norfolk ever been hit by a hurricane?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#150 Postby tatertawt24 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:49 pm

ronjon wrote:Holy smokes! Has Norfolk ever been hit by a hurricane?


I honestly can't think of anything! 1821 maybe? But I think that was a direct hit and not a landfall. A Virginia landfall would be insane. :eek:
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#151 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:51 pm

I wonder how long it will take to get the ships moved out to sea if this were to pan out?
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ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#152 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:52 pm

Euro will start shortly this should be interesting...


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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#153 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:55 pm

ronjon wrote:Holy smokes! Has Norfolk ever been hit by a hurricane?


That hit would be a disaster beyond question, the region is not called the Tidewater without reason. Luckily it is the HWRF.
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#154 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:56 pm

12Z Euro 75 miles SE of 0Z run at hr 36. Some northerly shear up to this point but not strong.
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#155 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:00 pm

12Z Euro still has a significant system impacting the eastern Bahamas in 48 hours. :eek:

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#156 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:05 pm

980 mb per my hr 60 12Z Euro map. It is right on top of 0Z hr 72 in Bahamas.
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#157 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:06 pm

Likely another recurve with the Euro IMO.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#158 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:07 pm

lets hope but who knows
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#159 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:09 pm

Maybe warrnings for Bahamas if Euro is right?

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#160 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:13 pm

cycloneye wrote:Maybe warrnings for Bahamas if Euro is right?

http://i.imgur.com/m5Ac8Tp.png


If Joaquin gets that far south, could it just get captured into Florida on the base of the cutoff ex-99L low?
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