EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Admittedly didn't pay much attention to that one because was never close to being a threat

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 12:15:00 N Lon : 123:56:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 939.4mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

[Ntxw]

[Yellow Evan]

My estimate for intensity is 115 knts. Looks somewhere around 130-135ish, but winds need to catch up.

[Yellow Evan]

ERC soon perhaps.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT leveling off.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 12:14:42 N Lon : 124:01:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 937.0mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Eye warming again.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 12:14:37 N Lon : 124:10:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 937.0mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +12.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

<3

WOW.

[Kingarabian]

Thinking SAB will go conservative with a 6.0.

[Yellow Evan]

Thinking SAB will go conservative with a 6.0.

W CDO (on Dvorak IR curve) with WMG in W would yield an eye number of 6.0 and eye adjustment of 1.0 for a total of 7.0. Constraints are an issue, but the 6 hour avg DT is likely around 6.5 maybe a little lower.

[Kingarabian]

Thinking SAB will go conservative with a 6.0.

W CDO (on Dvorak IR curve) with WMG in W would yield an eye number of 6.0 and eye adjustment of 1.0 for a total of 7.0. Constraints are an issue, but the 6 hour avg DT is likely around 6.5 maybe a little lower.

I honestly think it's AT LEAST a 6.5. It has to be. I also think winds should've caught up to at least 130kts before that ERC..

[Yellow Evan]

Thinking SAB will go conservative with a 6.0.

W CDO (on Dvorak IR curve) with WMG in W would yield an eye number of 6.0 and eye adjustment of 1.0 for a total of 7.0. Constraints are an issue, but the 6 hour avg DT is likely around 6.5 maybe a little lower.

I honestly think it's AT LEAST a 6.5. It has to be. I also think winds should've caught up to at least 130kts before that ERC..

I think T6.5 makes the most sense here, but the raw Data T value will likely be 7.0.

The ERC hasn't started. I really hope this will have the time to reach Cat 5 before an ERC starts.

[Kingarabian]

She's gorgeous.

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/BsDNhc4.gif

She's gorgeous.

Rivaling her 2009 version.

[Kingarabian]

http://i.imgur.com/BsDNhc4.gif

She's gorgeous.

Rivaling her 2009 version.

I was upset when the NHC didn't give Jimena 2009 her Cat. 5 status.

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/BsDNhc4.gif

She's gorgeous.

Rivaling her 2009 version.

I was upset when the NHC didn't give Jimena 2009 her Cat. 5 status.

I think Jimena 09 was a Cat 5, just there wasn't anything conclusive (Recon supported 130-135, eye warmed when Recon left but T-numbers didn't go past 6.5).

Pretty creepy that Jimena this year is also a Cat 5 wanna be.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT back on the rise.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 12:14:47 N Lon : 124:14:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 934.7mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

New frame. Eye still warming.

[Kingarabian]

I think Jimena 09 was a Cat 5, just there wasn't anything conclusive (Recon supported 130-135, eye warmed when Recon left but T-numbers didn't go past 6.5).

Pretty creepy that Jimena this year is also a Cat 5 wanna be.

I believe Dvorak under estimated because of the pin-hole eye.