ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[gatorcane]

Looks like no development on the 18Z GFS but the trough/ridge setup continues to show more ridging over the Western Atlantic and it seems to have dropped the trough it was showing in prior runs.

[Alyono]

Looks like no development on the 18Z GFS but the trough/ridge setup continues to show more ridging over the Western Atlantic and it seems to have dropped the trough that the ECMWF shows.

is it really worth worrying over the flow pattern when all that will be steered is trade wind cumulus showers?

[gatorcane]

Looks like no development on the 18Z GFS but the trough/ridge setup continues to show more ridging over the Western Atlantic and it seems to have dropped the trough that the ECMWF shows.

is it really worth worrying over the flow pattern when all that will be steered is trade wind cumulus showers?

Since we have the ECMWF showing development I look at the steering to figure out what if the GFS developed it too so I can compare with the ECMWF steering. The GFS no longer shows the big trough next weekend and this would open the door for 98L to head more west and possibly delay the recurve. The GFS has 98L going over a lot of land on this run again, so that probably helps not develop it:

700MB flow with quite a ridge late this week which would drive 98L further west:

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has 98L in the Eastern Gulf / West Coast of Florida in the long-range heading north (198 hours):

[gatorcane]

Another view of the 18Z GFS, 98L is a weak mess but it hooks up from south and into the West Coast of Florida as it hits a weakness over the SE United States:

[stormlover2013]

Will keep flip flopping

[ninel conde]

Looks like no development on the 18Z GFS but the trough/ridge setup continues to show more ridging over the Western Atlantic and it seems to have dropped the trough that the ECMWF shows.

is it really worth worrying over the flow pattern when all that will be steered is trade wind cumulus showers?

I have to agree. moving way too fast coupled with screaming westerlies and bone dry air.

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Ensembles recurve 98L but a significant shift west on this recurve for most of the ensembles. The closest point to the S.E. United States is below in the long-range. Also note the GFS operational is nothing like the GFS Ensembles as far as development of 98L. Look for the GFS operational to go back to showing development on one of the upcoming runs.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Track Guidance



00z Intensity Guidance

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL982015  08/24/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    33    38    42    46    56    62    67    71    72    72    71    72
V (KT) LAND       30    33    38    42    46    56    62    67    71    72    72    71    72
V (KT) LGE mod    30    33    36    39    43    51    60    69    77    80    81    80    80
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    11    14    11     8     6     4    18    16    20    20    25    23
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     2     3     1     0    -4     2    -4    -2    -3     0    -2    -1
SHEAR DIR         36    30    30    47    50   351   306   313   308   309   294   300   296
SST (C)         27.2  27.2  27.1  26.9  27.0  27.1  27.5  28.0  28.3  28.4  28.6  28.6  28.6
POT. INT. (KT)   130   130   129   126   127   128   132   138   142   144   147   146   146
ADJ. POT. INT.   134   133   131   128   128   129   131   135   138   141   142   139   138
200 MB T (C)   -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     8     9     9    10    11    12    11    12    11    12
700-500 MB RH     63    63    63    62    63    61    59    60    59    59    57    61    64
MODEL VTX (KT)    12    13    14    14    14    15    13    13    12    11     8     6     6
850 MB ENV VOR    99    89    79    67    66    52    18     0    -5   -18   -19   -16     3
200 MB DIV         3    31    14    25    16     7     2    -9     5     1     3     3    16
700-850 TADV     -10   -11   -14   -12   -10    -5   -11    -5    -9    -6   -14    -5    -9
LAND (KM)       1740  1597  1473  1363  1258  1140   965   758   680   403    97    69     7
LAT (DEG N)     13.8 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     38.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    20    20    19    18    18    18    16    14    13    14    13    12    11
HEAT CONTENT       7     6     7    11    26    11    17    32    48    40    12    64    40

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20      CX,CY: -19/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  527  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  41.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   1.   3.   6.  10.  15.  20.  23.  26.  28.  29.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   6.   7.   7.   6.   4.   2.   0.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.   6.   6.   5.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   0.   0.  -2.  -3.  -6.  -7.  -8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   8.  12.  16.  26.  32.  38.  41.  42.  42.  41.  42.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST     08/24/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  11.3 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  19.1 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  68.2 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 101.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  11.4 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  17.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    20% is   1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    11% is   1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     6% is   1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST     08/24/15  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST     08/24/2015  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

[Alyono]

look at the shear on SHIPS. Far higher than anything Danny encountered

[SFLcane]

look at the shear on SHIPS. Far higher than anything Danny encountered

yikes!

[Riptide]

look at the shear on SHIPS. Far higher than anything Danny encountered

Shear drops to 4kts in about 48hrs and stabilizes in the 20-25kt range post-72 hours. This is nothing a well developed TS can't handle.

Danny encountered much stronger shear approaching 35kts and had a smaller envelope. There is good reason to believe this will develop into a long-tracker baring land interaction.

[Blown Away]

look at the shear on SHIPS. Far higher than anything Danny encountered

Do the intensity models have any value? Nearly all the 00z models have a cane with a few that take off at end of forecast?

[Alyono]

look at the shear on SHIPS. Far higher than anything Danny encountered

Shear drops to 4kts in about 48hrs and stabilizes in the 20-25kt range post-72 hours. This is nothing a well developed TS can't handle.

Danny encountered much stronger shear approaching 35kts and had a smaller envelope. There is good reason to believe this will develop into a long-tracker baring land interaction.

Danny encountered 20 kts of shear at most. Not sure where you are getting 35 from

[Alyono]

look at the shear on SHIPS. Far higher than anything Danny encountered

Do the intensity models have any value? Nearly all the 00z models have a cane with a few that take off at end of forecast?

I'd pay attention to the global models as to when they develop this. Beyond 5 days. The wave needs to be monitored very closely then.

It could be upgraded tomorrow. I cannot rule it out. However, take off should occur beyond 5 days. May have a good chance at becoming a hurricane then

[Siker]

look at the shear on SHIPS. Far higher than anything Danny encountered

Do the intensity models have any value? Nearly all the 00z models have a cane with a few that take off at end of forecast?

I'd pay attention to the global models as to when they develop this. Beyond 5 days. The wave needs to be monitored very closely then.

It could be upgraded tomorrow. I cannot rule it out. However, take off should occur beyond 5 days. May have a good chance at becoming a hurricane then

Any thoughts on this being an East Coast / Bermuda threat this far out?

[Alyono]

Any thoughts on this being an East Coast / Bermuda threat this far out?

far too soon to say

[Hurricaneman]

Any thoughts on this being an East Coast / Bermuda threat this far out?

far too soon to say

I agree with that as it could just as likely smash into the Greater Antilles