ATL: DANNY - Models

[South Texas Storms]

No love for the UKMET, it has been the most consistent with this system (consistently bullish) showing development for days now? Now it seems other models are catching up to it.

Yep, I think the UKMET is one of the top computer models we have, along with the Euro and GFS. I definitely watch that model closely.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

You talking development or intensity wise? Or both?

[cycloneye]

This is telling.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 6m6 minutes ago
Only ~5 out of 51 ECMWF ensemble members at 12Z have 96L making it to the Lesser Antilles intact. 12Z operational run huge outlier for now.

[northjaxpro]

This is telling.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 6m6 minutes ago
Only ~5 out of 51 ECMWF ensemble members at 12Z have 96L making it to the Lesser Antilles intact. 12Z operational run huge outlier for now.

Hmm... Interesting indeed. Well, we will find out later this week if 96L can stay intact approaching the Caribbean .

[CrazyC83]

HWRF still thinks this is the W-PAC...

Honestly right now I don't think that it is unreasonable. West of 50W is when conditions become especially hostile. It may be like Fred 2009 (at a lower latitude) perhaps?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC TUE AUG 18 2015

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962015) 20150818 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
150818 0000 150818 1200 150819 0000 150819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 33.2W 10.0N 35.9W 10.2N 38.4W 10.1N 40.7W
BAMD 9.8N 33.2W 10.1N 35.3W 10.3N 37.3W 10.4N 39.1W
BAMM 9.8N 33.2W 10.1N 35.4W 10.3N 37.3W 10.4N 39.0W
LBAR 9.8N 33.2W 9.9N 35.6W 10.5N 38.1W 11.0N 40.6W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS 63KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
150820 0000 150821 0000 150822 0000 150823 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 42.4W 8.5N 44.3W 7.6N 44.9W 7.8N 45.2W
BAMD 10.6N 40.5W 10.5N 43.2W 10.4N 46.7W 10.1N 50.6W
BAMM 10.5N 40.2W 10.4N 41.4W 10.3N 42.7W 10.3N 44.8W
LBAR 11.8N 42.6W 13.9N 46.0W 15.9N 48.6W 17.8N 51.6W
SHIP 75KTS 90KTS 95KTS 95KTS
DSHP 75KTS 90KTS 95KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 33.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 31.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 29.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[SFLcane]

12z ECMWF ensemble

[TheStormExpert]

00z Intensity Guidance

[CrazyC83]

12z ECMWF ensemble

Hispaniola will tear it to shreds on that track...

[Blown Away]

Back in the old days, 96L at this position was a sure fire hurricane this time of the year... Oh how times have changed, now there is generally little confidence a system can survive for an extended period in the MDR...

[blp]

None. Doesnt matter if it has been showing it developing for a week straight. For years its been as bad as the Canadian blowing everything up to a cat 5 and beyond

And it continues

That is factually incorrect. To make that statement is like comparing apples and oranges. UKMET is historically one of the most conservative models. Rarely will you see a CAT 5 depicted. This year with Cyclone Pam it showed it's lowest pressure ever of 916mb and that was because of the recent upgrade. I have never heard it record a CAT 5 in the Atlantic. And track wise it is consistently rated in the top three.

[Brent]

12z ECMWF ensemble

Hispaniola will tear it to shreds on that track...

If it's even alive when it gets there... I have serious doubts.

[WPBWeather]

For the person(s) who follow JB, he is now paying attention to this one. He was busy with non weather matters in Texas for the last 48 hours, not that it really matters.

[South Texas Storms]

You talking development or intensity wise? Or both?

I think the UKMET ranks up near the top in terms of forecasting the track of tropical systems. It's normally on the conservative side of forecasting intensity. So whenever it blows a system up into a strong storm, it certainly has my attention.

[floridasun78]

12z ECMWF ensemble

i wont look those untill bget near islands see shape it in and see how Models change i seen too many Models like see

[OuterBanker]

JB did say that it could slip just below Hisp/DR and wind up in the Gulf. Just a fantasy right now.

[NDG]

You talking development or intensity wise? Or both?

I think the UKMET ranks up near the top in terms of forecasting the track of tropical systems. It's normally on the conservative side of forecasting intensity. So whenever it blows a system up into a strong storm, it certainly has my attention.

It has not been conservative at all this season in the Atlantic, it has very bullish with just about every disturbance in the Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF ensemble

The time of the year and possible track just N of the islands is a classic path to strike the US... Fortunately it's an El Nino year and conditions for many years now generally don't support numerous long trackers anymore like they did in the old days...

[WPBWeather]

12z ECMWF ensemble

The time of the year and possible track just N of the islands is a classic path to strike the US... Fortunately it's an El Nino year and conditions for many years now generally don't support numerous long trackers anymore like they did in the old days...

From your mouth (or keyboard) to God's ear...

[tropicwatch]

It seems kind of unusual to have a tight consensus of model tracks with a developing system isn't it?