ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

As per recon, upper air pattern still looks favorable for at least the next 12 hours or so, so there's a chance it could peak again briefly if it can reorganize by then.

I have to agree, I was just looking at the Dropsones, immediately around Danny the UL conditions are not that destructive, certainly they are not perfect as they were earlier today when it was a Cat 3 but they are not that destructive to weaken it that fast, in fact the latest SHIPS model show shear to be below 15 knots immediately over Danny over the next 36 hrs or so and not above 20 knots until 96 hrs or so.

[ozonepete]

Danny's a very impressive little feller. I'm interested to see what happens in the next few days in regards of the shear, path and land reaction.

A fairly quick death is in Danny's future..time to look east

yes my friend look far east

Just remember a LOT of people on here who say Danny is done also said Danny would never be a hurricane just a few days ago. lol....

[Nederlander]

Just remember a LOT of people on here who say Danny is done also said Danny would never be a hurricane just a few days ago. lol....

Bingo.. I strongly disagree with writing Danny off so soon...

[tailgater]

This is the 5 day loop showing Danny brushing up against TUTT shear wall but it does seem to thinning and backing up almost as fast as Danny advances. Danny is forecast to speed up so that might change soon but I wouldn't write off the possibility of Danny remaining a Hurricane when it reaches the Leeward isles.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... tjava.html

[floridasun78]

Just remember a LOT of people on here who say Danny is done also said Danny would never be a hurricane just a few days ago. lol....

Bingo.. I strongly disagree with writing Danny off so soon...

wxman57 writing it off what i under stand

[JonathanBelles]

New Post for Danny and the rest of the tropics:

http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/21/tr ... ters-busy/

[ozonepete]

wxman57 writing it off what i under stand

You have to remember that's just one opinion among the many pro mets on here. Wxman and I go way back on here and I love and respect him (he's a maestro) but we don't always agree - that's just the nature of hurricane forecasting. But I'm sure even he would tell you that he's not right 100% of the time; at least I think he would.

So you should look for a consensus of the experts on here rather than follow just one person.

[johngaltfla]

Every week I DON'T have to board my house up is a good week.

Hopefully the islands do get some rain from Danny though and a lot of it.

[NDG]

This is the 5 day loop showing Danny brushing up against TUTT shear wall but it does seem to thinning and backing up almost as fast as Danny advances. Danny is forecast to speed up so that might change soon but I wouldn't write off the possibility of Danny remaining a Hurricane when it reaches the Leeward isles.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... tjava.html

The TUTT has not really moved the last couple of days, but it appears to be weakening a little or least thining out some today.

[northjaxpro]

I would not be too quick to dismiss Danny just yet. Granted there are two big obstacles ahead for Danny with southwesterly shear and dry air. But, folks this storm has already far exceeded what most thought it could do when this week started. The odds were stacked heavily against Danny from its birth and he had other ideas obviously lol..

Yes Danny will weaken the next 3-5 days and its possible it could degenerate into an open wave within five days with shear and dry air and potential interaction with the Islands. HOWEVER, there are other models depicting that Danny will survive the journey through the shear and miss PR, and Hispaniola to the north, where it is possible the environment in the vicinity of the Bahamas may be more conducive for Danny to re-generate if this scenario takes place after 120 hours from now.

I say its too soon to declare the demise of Danny. I respect this system too much after what its done these past 24 hours. Don't underestimate this system folks!

[Gustywind]

Maintains its numbers...


North Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/2345 UTC 14.9N 49.3W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/2315 UTC 14.9N 49.1W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.4W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
19/2345 UTC 11.9N 42.3W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY

[ozonepete]

This is the 5 day loop showing Danny brushing up against TUTT shear wall but it does seem to thinning and backing up almost as fast as Danny advances. Danny is forecast to speed up so that might change soon but I wouldn't write off the possibility of Danny remaining a Hurricane when it reaches the Leeward isles.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... tjava.html

The TUTT has not really moved the last couple of days, but it appears to be weakening a little or least thining out some today.

Haha I still think that's a poor excuse for a TUTT but I guess you can call it whatever you want...

All I'm sayin' is that the NHC is not calling it a TUTT

[CaliforniaResident]

Does anyone here still believe it has a chance of pulling off another Andrew after weakening briefly? If it misses the islands to the north, is there a chance of restrengthening to a cat 3, 4, or even a 5 and making landfall in the Southeastern U.S as a major?

How much advance notice or prep time do you think the national hurricane center would give folks in such a scenario?

Florida hasn't had any hurricane landfalls (let alone a major) in nearly 10 years; does that mean when they get hit again, it will be hit hard rather than with just a garden variety cat 1?

[gatorcane]

Well I still think it will ultimately get torn apart over the next few days with the best models we have in the world showing that solution. But I find it interesting that the high shear zone seems to be shrinking some out ahead of it (second graphic), plus look at that huge upper high that has formed just east of Florida (first graphic) with favorable upper-level winds north of the Greater Antilles.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

AL, 04, 2015082200, , BEST, 0, 146N, 493W, 95, 977, HU,

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015

HURRICANE DANNY CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 49.1W AT 21/2100 UTC OR 860
NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N QUADRANT
OF THE CENTER. DANNY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS DANNY WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A TROPICAL STORM STATUS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Danny has shrunk in size but keeping a very circular organization. Shear or no shear, impressive.

[WPBWeather]

Does anyone here still believe it has a chance of pulling off another Andrew after weakening briefly? If it misses the islands to the north, is there a chance of restrengthening to a cat 3, 4, or even a 5 and making landfall in the Southeastern U.S as a major?

How much advance notice or prep time do you think the national hurricane center would give folks in such a scenario?

Florida hasn't had any hurricane landfalls (let alone a major) in nearly 10 years; does that mean when they get hit again, it will be hit hard rather than with just a garden variety cat 1?

As a Florida resident hit by Andrew I would rather not explore the scenario you describe. And who ever heard of lightning striking twice.

[floridasun78]

Does anyone here still believe it has a chance of pulling off another Andrew after weakening briefly? If it misses the islands to the north, is there a chance of restrengthening to a cat 3, 4, or even a 5 and making landfall in the Southeastern U.S as a major?

How much advance notice or prep time do you think the national hurricane center would give folks in such a scenario?

Florida hasn't had any hurricane landfalls (let alone a major) in nearly 10 years; does that mean when they get hit again, it will be hit hard rather than with just a garden variety cat 1?

As a Florida resident hit by Andrew I would rather not explore the scenario you describe. And who ever heard of lightning striking twice.

andrew happen El Niño season

[tailgater]

I think Danny will start his more westerly course now. with the increased speed and more opposing direction the shear will likely increase. Lets see what the next 24 hrs bring.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html