ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

alienstorm · #1261 Postby **alienstorm** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:05 pm

You can clearly see on this loop that it is still moving SW
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

#1262 Postby **drezee** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:06 pm

More SFMR at 102kts and flight level is 113....

#1263 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:06 pm

Based on Recon, this may be nearing 105, and is likely at least 100 knots.

#1264 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:07 pm

113 knots at flight level and believable 100 knot SFMR readings suggest to me that Joaquin may already be a major hurricane.

#1265 Postby **terstorm1012** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:07 pm

Hammy wrote:I think my forecast just busted big time. Will we be getting any overnight flights?

Happens to the best of us Hammy!

Aric Dunn · #1266 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:08 pm

Well given recon.. we might already be looking at a minimal cat 3.. wonder what the n/ne quad isnlike..

#1267 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:08 pm

All that data and I agree with 100 kt for the intensity.

#1268 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:08 pm

BTW thats a 23 hPa drop in 12 hours (if the 949 hPa reading is correct).

EquusStorm · #1269 Postby **EquusStorm** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:08 pm

Unreal. We were at at 988 on the 11pm advisory last night... that's a really steep pressure drop. And with the eye already peeking out of the clouds to say hello, dare I suggest those outlandish model suggestions of sub-940 are very well probably going to verify at this point.

We can hope for the sake of those in its path that the winds don't catch up to the pressure, but since it's already a category two...

TheStormExpert · #1270 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:08 pm

Joaquin is really taking off now!
:double:

Looks like she found the sweet spot of this strong El Niño season! :eek:

#1271 Postby **drezee** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:09 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:113 knots at flight level and believable 100 knot SFMR readings suggest to me that Joaquin may already be a major hurricane.

Agreed, cat 3 by the book...

Aric Dunn · #1272 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:09 pm

Well maybe cat 4 before leaves southdadefish lol

#1273 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:09 pm

AL, 11, 201509302345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 2400N, 7310W, , 1, 90, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, AS, IM, 1, 5050 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=5.5 BO EYE MET=5.0 PT=5.0 FTBO CON

SAB DT is 5.5, so the recon is in line with Dvorak.

#1274 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Well maybe cat 4 before leaves southdadefish lol

If they do 3 center fixes I wouldn't write it off, considering recent satellite trends.

#1275 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:12 pm

I would think at this point, we will have round the clock flights considering the threat to the US and closeness of the storm

#1276 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:12 pm

000
UZNT13 KNHC 010008
XXAA 51007 99239 70729 08032 99952 27608 10013 00937 ///// /////
92258 25606 11018 85003 24450 09512 70698 18458 15506 88999 77999
31313 09608 82348
61616 AF309 0511A JOAQUIN OB 14
62626 CENTER MBL WND 10516 AEV 07775 DLM WND 11012 952697 WL150 1
0015 084 REL 2392N07292W 234827 SPG 2393N07294W 235216 =
XXBB 51008 99239 70729 08032 00952 27608 11865 22809 22850 24450
33837 25057 44768 23260 55697 18058
21212 00952 10013 11922 10518 22895 11013 33860 12012 44850 09512
55817 13514 66771 11514 77743 08012 88697 16507
31313 09608 82348
61616 AF309 0511A JOAQUIN OB 14
62626 CENTER MBL WND 10516 AEV 07775 DLM WND 11012 952697 WL150 1
0015 084 REL 2392N07292W 234827 SPG 2393N07294W 235216 =
;

952mb / 13 kt wind. Supports a 951 pressure I believe.

Aric Dunn · #1277 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:13 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Well maybe cat 4 before leaves southdadefish lol

If they do 3 center fixes I wouldn't write it off, considering recent satellite trends.

Though im not surprised. Given the eye contraction that happened today from 57 miles to clearly much much smaller..

I wonder if the large eye was giving it convective issues today. ? Must have reached a critical point where convection was finally able build in all quads

#1278 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:14 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 010011
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 28 20151001
000200 2321N 07219W 6942 03067 9938 +106 +106 240056 065 054 026 00
000230 2320N 07218W 6990 03019 9964 +103 +103 239069 073 053 019 00
000300 2319N 07216W 6936 03082 9969 +099 +099 231066 069 054 024 00
000330 2318N 07215W 6976 03038 9980 +095 +095 223063 065 052 018 03
000400 2316N 07214W 6968 03057 9984 +093 +093 220059 063 054 013 03
000430 2315N 07212W 6965 03064 9980 +094 +094 222052 056 051 013 03
000500 2315N 07212W 6965 03064 9977 +098 +098 222056 056 052 017 03
000530 2313N 07210W 6954 03081 9979 +100 +100 229058 060 052 017 00
000600 2311N 07208W 6973 03061 9983 +103 +103 218058 060 050 026 00
000630 2310N 07207W 6967 03065 9983 +102 +102 219059 061 048 024 00
000700 2309N 07206W 6963 03072 9986 +100 +100 213047 056 047 022 00
000730 2308N 07205W 6963 03075 9994 +098 +098 211041 046 045 020 00
000800 2307N 07203W 6971 03070 9999 +096 +096 208038 040 045 013 03
000830 2306N 07202W 6957 03087 0003 +094 +094 205039 040 048 011 03
000900 2304N 07201W 6958 03088 0000 +097 +097 209043 046 050 010 33
000930 2303N 07159W 6966 03082 9996 +095 +095 219038 043 048 008 00
001000 2302N 07158W 6969 03082 0006 +094 +094 216043 046 047 008 00
001030 2301N 07157W 6967 03086 9994 +095 +095 222043 045 047 006 00
001100 2300N 07155W 6961 03094 9997 +094 +094 226044 046 046 007 00
001130 2258N 07154W 6967 03089 9998 +095 +095 224043 046 045 007 00
$$
;

#1279 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:14 pm

Considering the 5 pm NHC advisory had a peak intensity forecast of 100 knots, which is most likely the current intensity, I think a special advisory is warranted.

TheStormExpert · #1280 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:15 pm

Latest Video Discussion from Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

@TropicalTidbits: Wednesday evening video discussion on Hurricane #Joaquin: http://t.co/jejQmCdfak

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