ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

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ozonepete
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1261 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:33 pm

NDG wrote:And just as I said last night, Danny is starting to encounter the Great Wall of Shear and becoming less attractive by the hour on satellite presentation.


Just as you and the NHC and most other forecasters said, you mean... :wink:
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1262 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:39 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Danny going to miss the next forecast point to the north again... About to cross 15N...


Getting very clos to it and building some convection again.

Image
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1263 Postby blp » Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:57 pm

Microwave image confirms this should have crossed 15N.

Image
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#1264 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:01 pm

Hey what's up Rock. Nice you are still alive and around. Hoping for some late nights in September.
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#1265 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:01 pm

Hey what's up Rock. Nice you are still alive and around. Hoping for some late nights in September.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1266 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:02 pm

ozonepete wrote:
NDG wrote:And just as I said last night, Danny is starting to encounter the Great Wall of Shear and becoming less attractive by the hour on satellite presentation.


Just as you and the NHC and most other forecasters said, you mean... :wink:


For a minute I thought I was the only one ;)
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#1267 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:03 pm

Looks like Danny wants to regenerate deep convection within his inner core structure one last time before shear begins to weaken the system beginning tomorrow. Seeing convection building again currently and this should keep Danny at Cat 2 status for about another 6-12 hours, then southwrsterly shear will begin to beat Danny down over the weekend.

What a show Danny has given us these past 24 hours. It was very apparent late yesterday and last night Danny was rapidly intensifying with that impressive CDO and then the appearance of the near perfect pinhole eye as I went to bed. I was not surprised at all to see Danny reach Cat 3 status earlier this morning. Recon got in Danny just in the nick of time as the storm had just peaked at max intensity and was at the point of undergoing an eyewall replacement. I think it is possible Danny may have peaked as high as 115 kts imo. I will be very interested to see the post analysis of Danny.

Danny was as impressive as a tropical cyclone can get and it shows just how tiny tropical cyclones like this one can really ramp up extremely quickly. I have thoroughly enjoyed tracking and monitoring this storm, quite fascinating to be honest. Thankfully, the cyclone hsd stayed harmless out to sea, for now, while it became a major hurricane.
Amazing Danny, the tiny cyclone which really packed a big wallop!!!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#1268 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:08 pm

Danny is north of the forecast path and if that is the case the islands will not kill it. It is predicted to make it through the shear as a storm and the reason for it dying off was it encountering the islands. If it stays north what does the NHC do? It is going to have to start going due west soon to meet the forecast path. I would not write this storm off at all. This storm could very well make it through the very strong but THIN wall of shear ahead of it.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1269 Postby blp » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:21 pm

I know CIMMS map has 20kt of shear right now but I just don't think the shear is what is impacting it and those maps may not be correct. I don't see the cloud pattern looking sheared. But dry air might be a problem. Michael Ventrice thinks so. He posted it earlier.

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Note the abundance of arc clouds pushing out from the center of the storm. Dry air impeding its circulation
Last edited by blp on Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1270 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:22 pm

It's hard to tell where the center is now without a cleared out eye, and it's supposed to start to turn almost due west soon so give it a few hours.
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#1271 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:53 pm

As per recon, upper air pattern still looks favorable for at least the next 12 hours or so, so there's a chance it could peak again briefly if it can reorganize by then.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1272 Postby OURAGAN » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:57 pm

I don't now, but i think the Turn to the left has begun
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1273 Postby SouthFloridian92 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:01 pm

Danny's a very impressive little feller. I'm interested to see what happens in the next few days in regards of the shear, path and land reaction.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1274 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:03 pm

Danny should steadily weaken over the next couple of days as conditions get less favorable (more shear). You can already tell it's weakening. I don't think it will survive to reach the DR as a TS. BIG wall of shear west of there will likely prevent any threat to Florida or the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1275 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:Danny should steadily weaken over the next couple of days as conditions get less favorable (more shear). You can already tell it's weakening. I don't think it will survive to reach the DR as a TS. BIG wall of shear west of there will likely prevent any threat to Florida or the Gulf.


Why do the intensity models seem to always show these systems to be stronger than what Euro/GFS show? Intensity models have shown Danny making a comeback as TS @120 hours all day?
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1276 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:15 pm

wxman57 here to tell us DANNY dieing let look next invest their not thing look here
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1277 Postby ouragans » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:16 pm

As per the best track, Danny is back to cat.2 with 95 kts winds, pressure 977 mb
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ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1278 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:18 pm

SouthFloridian92 wrote:Danny's a very impressive little feller. I'm interested to see what happens in the next few days in regards of the shear, path and land reaction.

A fairly quick death is in Danny's future..time to look east
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1279 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:28 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
SouthFloridian92 wrote:Danny's a very impressive little feller. I'm interested to see what happens in the next few days in regards of the shear, path and land reaction.

A fairly quick death is in Danny's future..time to look east

yes my friend look far east
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Re:

#1280 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:29 pm

spiral wrote:northjaxpro been looking over your posts you have done a good job on this so far nothing you have posted has been unrealistic.

Good to see you also don't have the Expert id name tag, because self praise is no recommendation.


Well, let me just say that I am certainly not on here looking for any accolades or self praise that's for sure. I simply am a long time weather observer, going back to my days being a student and spending much time at the Love Building at Florida State during the late 80s - early 90s period. I just enjoy coming on here and sharing my analysis with the rest of you here on Storm2K. There are so many great pro mets and other great weather observers on this site who I respect and this is why this site is the best on the internet. I have been a member of this site approaching 5 years and I am happy to be a part of this community.

But, thank you spiral for your kind words about me regarding my analysis of Danny throughout this week. Again, I definitely was not expecting anyone to take that type of notice, so I appreciate that you took this time to let me know how you felt.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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