ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Alyono
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#1221 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:54 pm

pressure close to 950mb, surface winds near 90 kts from latest recon
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#1222 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:54 pm

Definitely intensifying.

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#1223 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:55 pm

SFMR 102kts
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#1224 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:55 pm

There was a 102 kt SFMR at the end too.

Given the other data, I would go with a 95 kt intensity.
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#1225 Postby TimeZone » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:55 pm

Heavy thunderstorms FINALLY on the western side of the storm.

Lets see if they last or fizzle again.
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#1226 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:55 pm

The 102kt sfmr seem suspect but pressure looks like it will be low 950s
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#1227 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:55 pm

949 mb extrap... Holy smokes. WOW.
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#1228 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:55 pm

102 knt SFMR looks rain-inflated to me.
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#1229 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:56 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:102 knt SFMR looks rain-inflated to me.


8 mm of rain isn't really inflated much.
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#1230 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:56 pm

Wow that was a huge drop in 10 hours.
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#1231 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:56 pm

Based on Recon, I'd go 90/950.
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Re:

#1232 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:57 pm

drezee ed Sep 30, 2015 9:44 am wrote:There's my fist...typically RI comes quickly afterwards...


23mb drop unless than 10 hours
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#1233 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:57 pm

Special advisory, anyone?
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#1234 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:57 pm

We are at D-Max now.
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Re:

#1235 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:58 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Special advisory, anyone?

The 8pm Intermediate advisory is coming in late.
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Re: Re:

#1236 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Will it still be purely tropical at landfall?


Looks like that will be the case. However, the gradient between high pressure to the north and the center of Joaquin will produce a large area of 25-35 mph winds well north of landfall, through Long Island and possibly up to Cape Cod.


Now you lie at the end of a 4-day track, which is only marginally worse than being at the end of the 5-day track. Odds are it will miss you to one side or the other, perhaps farther south a tad more likely than farther north.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1237 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:58 pm

105Mph at 8pm
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Re:

#1238 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:58 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Also, eyewall convection is quite vigorous in all quadrants now. Definitely seem like an intensification phase is underway. I hope the residents of the Bahamas in the path of the storm have prepared for a possible major hurricane.


They might be spared if this stall is a sign of a northward turn.
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#1239 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:58 pm

Cat 2, 105mph. This keeps on escalating.
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#1240 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:59 pm

Surprised they didn't go with a Special Advisory there and update the intensities.
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