EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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Aric Dunn
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1181 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:46 pm

ozonepete wrote:Just so everyone here gets the meteorology right going forward, here it is directly from the NHC:

Image

Here's the accompanying text:
Hurricane Approach To Port
In general, hurricanes forecast to make a perpendicular landfall tend to have the smallest amount of FTE. Conversely, systems that are forecast to parallel the coast, as is often noted in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, tend to have larger track errors. Additionally, hurricanes that make landfall within 50-100 NM of a particular port tend to be more destructive than those that approach the port from over land or parallel the coast in the vicinity of the port. Also, ports located in the right front quadrant, based on direction of movement of hurricanes during landfall tend to have higher winds, seas, and storm surge.

Full link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/marine.php


Yes that is true when adding surge to it. since the mean wind /wave/water motion would be perpendicular to the coast... however

the strongest winds would be 45 degrees on either side of the 90 degree from the center relative to the forward motion :P

this is fun lol
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Re:

#1182 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:46 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:12:49:50am EDT: 894mb, 25 knots ... 892mb
02:04:20am EDT: 890mb, 40 knots ... 886mb
02:49:00am EDT: 885mb, 57 knots ... 880mb

No recon period

01:35:53pm EDT: 883mb, 45 knots ... 879mb
04:37:34pm EDT: 910mb, 68 knots ... 900mb

There's no telling what it was inbetween.

The pressure is so obvious to have fallen below 879mb earlier that NHC surely will do something about it in post season. Perhaps 875mb on TCR
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TimeZone

#1183 Postby TimeZone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:51 pm

It really is a shame the weakening couldn't have started sooner. :(

Latest loop looks like landfall within the next halfhour or so.
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Re: Re:

#1184 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:54 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Chris_in_Tampa wrote:12:49:50am EDT: 894mb, 25 knots ... 892mb
02:04:20am EDT: 890mb, 40 knots ... 886mb
02:49:00am EDT: 885mb, 57 knots ... 880mb

No recon period

01:35:53pm EDT: 883mb, 45 knots ... 879mb
04:37:34pm EDT: 910mb, 68 knots ... 900mb

There's no telling what it was inbetween.

The pressure is so obvious to have fallen below 879mb earlier that NHC surely will do something about it in post season. Perhaps 875mb on TCR


It was falling at a rate of 5.5mb/hr (admittedly measured over a very short time period) when they left last day after the 880mb reading. It almost certainly continued to drop thereafter.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1185 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:56 pm

Hi-res AVHRR imagery of Patricia today

Image

Image
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#1186 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:58 pm

:uarrow:

Speechless.
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#1187 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:01 pm

we have a Darwin Award candidate in La Manzanilla
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1188 Postby tatertawt24 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:02 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Hi-res AVHRR imagery of Patricia today

Image

Image


omg, that second picture doesn't even look real.
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TimeZone

Re:

#1189 Postby TimeZone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:02 pm

Alyono wrote:we have a Darwin Award candidate in La Manzanilla


Link?
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Re:

#1190 Postby Bunkertor » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:03 pm

Alyono wrote:we have a Darwin Award candidate in La Manzanilla

Orr
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Re: Re:

#1191 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:03 pm

TimeZone wrote:
Alyono wrote:we have a Darwin Award candidate in La Manzanilla


Link?


some moron walking in the incoming tidal surge at La Manzanilla. Was shown live on TWC
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TimeZone

#1192 Postby TimeZone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:03 pm

Landfall occurring as I type this.
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#1193 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:04 pm

Incredible beach video in Manzanillo

https://twitter.com/MaxitoCastaneda/sta ... 1776574464

MAJOR surge
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#1194 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:07 pm

Looks like 2215Z or 2230Z for landfall time. I'd put the landfall intensity at 145 kt.
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#1195 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:12 pm

I am completely stunned by this. I can't describe how shocking it is, having just been a tropical storm just 2 days ago. Is this the strongest tropical cyclone ever to make landfall in recorded history or was there one stronger in the past?
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#1196 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:13 pm

Radar loop through 5:41pm EDT:
http://imgur.com/z29u0lm

Radar loop through 5:51pm EDT:
http://imgur.com/ZhBGHjB
Last edited by Chris_in_Tampa on Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1197 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:15 pm

Guys, this guy is manning a cam RIGHT at landfall on the beach.

He seriously needs to get the hell out of there. He will die if he stays.

He just righted the camera after it fell over. Debris everywhere.

http://myearthcam.com/lamanzanilla
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Re:

#1198 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:16 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Radar loop through 5:41pm EDT:
http://imgur.com/z29u0lm


That inner core is still very intense... Icyclone guys where ever they are hopefully are safe and get some good readings.
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#1199 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:21 pm

Arroyo Seco, a small town about 50 miles WNW of Manzanillo, looks like the landfall point.
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TimeZone

Re:

#1200 Postby TimeZone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:21 pm

windnrain wrote:Guys, this guy is manning a cam RIGHT at landfall on the beach.

He seriously needs to get the hell out of there. He will die if he stays.

He just righted the camera after it fell over. Debris everywhere.

http://myearthcam.com/lamanzanilla


Looks like he left.
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