ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[deltadog03]

Sometimes the NAM can be a precursor of what the next GFS run does and it is a BIG shift west. Perhaps some new data has caused this shift.

I know I shouldn't laugh, but WOW!! come on nam...

[pgoss11]

So with this run of the NAM, the negatively tilted trough captures Joaquin? WOW!

[txwatcher91]

The question is do the other models show a similar shift or do they stick to their guns?

[gatorcane]

The NAM, while not a good tropical model, has the new NCEP data injected and it is the same used by the GFS.

That cut-off low really grabs Joaquin and sends him right into South Carolina, almost as far south as Georgia.

[AdamFirst]

:uarrow: The NAM, while not a good tropical model, has the new NCEP data injected and it is the same used by the GFS.

That cut-off low really grabs Joaquin and sends him right into South Carolina, almost as far south as Georgia.

That would be the makings of a mega-disaster, with 9+ inches of rain forecast for South Carolina already NOT from Joaquin. Hopefully it does not verify.

[PTrackerLA]

I'd normally not really consider the NAM but the 18z GFS ensembles give a sliver of a doubt of an OTS scenario. Still, take with a grain of salt for now IMO.

[smithtim]

Some amazing track errors for the verified 48 and 72 hour points.

First three NHC forecasts have averaged a 900km track error at 72 hours.

which is why I am still worried about this thing...if it was so far off in the past, why should we NOW be so confident of its future

And small initial changes can have big effect down road ( perturbation ivc)


On that note what was the initial intensity at last model runs 105 or 120? As if 105 and they put 130 now might be interesting...not so sure how much intensity of storm will effect how it moves - will a cat 5 get moved same as cat 3 based on same surrounding environmental??

Geuss we'll see in runs shortly...I hope that NW not N is oddity and this thing goes bye bye out sea...

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well it looks like I am probably wrong on my prediction over the last couple days now as almost all reliable models are taking Joaquin away from the East Coast. This is definitely good news for areas that are already going to get soaked by heavy rains from another weather system. That's of course barring anything crazy and unexpected happening with a left hook like Sandy, which still can't completely be ruled out. Still, one thing I say again and again is the trend is your friend, and this time it really is looking that way. I don't recommend letting any guard down just yet, though.

But I really feel for the Bahamas, who are getting pummeled. Hopefully this will be gone tomorrow from there, but probably will last until Saturday or maybe late tomorrow night. And before anyone says fish from here on out, remember that Bermuda will still need to watch this, and the Maritimes aren't out of the woods by any means either.

That said, I am probably about done commenting on this storm while it is live. I will be traveling to California for the weekend for one thing, so I will want to enjoy my time there. But for another, like many of us, I have pulled my hair out and have lost sleep wanting to watch this storm. I need to catch up in areas such as sleep and hobbies during my time out of town, and most likely for the duration of the storm.

-Andrew92

[smithtim]

Just saying...it has the new data ingested. Not saying it's correct, but definitely need to see if the other models show something similar.

Aren't they running now??? Does anyone have 00z 48-72hrs screenshots


Thanks

[NDG]

Lol on the NAM, just 24 hrs ago it forecasted Joaquin it to be around 70 miles north of where it is now.

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS 24 barely west of 18Z GFS 30 moving NNE.

[Alyono]

slight west shift at 30 hours

[Alyono]

that was a short lived west shift though. basically on track at 36 hours

[smithtim]

Thanks : )

[Alyono]

half degree west shift at 48 hours

[Alyono]

big left shift at 66 hours

[windnrain]

GFS this run



GFS last run:



Trending noticibly west

[green eyed girl]

big left shift at 66 hours

What's causing the west shift?

[LarryWx]

Hour 72: ~100 miles west shift vs 18z

[Alyono]

big left shift at 66 hours

What's causing the west shift?

slightly weaker Ida it appears