ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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1900hurricane
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#1181 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:23 pm

Joaquin is also modeled to open up a second outflow channel to the NW as the trough draws nearer. What we see right now is not the "final product" intensity-wise. Still lots of room to grow.
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#1182 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:23 pm

Image
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#1183 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:23 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 302321
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 23 20150930
231200 2530N 07429W 6969 03112 9984 +113 +052 040029 029 024 000 00
231230 2529N 07428W 6965 03117 9984 +114 +052 040029 029 022 000 00
231300 2528N 07426W 6967 03112 9983 +113 +051 038030 031 021 000 00
231330 2526N 07425W 6966 03113 9982 +114 +049 037030 031 023 000 00
231400 2525N 07423W 6967 03112 9980 +114 +048 038030 030 023 000 00
231430 2524N 07422W 6965 03113 9981 +115 +041 038030 031 024 000 00
231500 2522N 07421W 6965 03112 9981 +115 +040 036032 032 024 000 00
231530 2521N 07419W 6970 03106 9976 +117 +036 037033 033 024 000 00
231600 2520N 07418W 6965 03109 9975 +112 +064 036033 034 026 000 00
231630 2519N 07416W 6967 03104 9982 +104 +082 032034 035 027 000 00
231700 2517N 07415W 6967 03104 9985 +103 +066 035034 035 026 000 00
231730 2516N 07414W 6966 03103 9988 +100 +053 032034 034 024 000 00
231800 2515N 07412W 6966 03103 9986 +103 +050 032034 035 023 000 00
231830 2513N 07411W 6967 03102 9979 +106 +049 037036 037 024 000 00
231900 2512N 07409W 6969 03100 9979 +105 +047 041035 037 027 000 00
231930 2511N 07408W 6963 03106 9982 +102 +058 039036 036 028 002 00
232000 2509N 07407W 6965 03101 9978 +106 +079 038036 038 027 000 00
232030 2508N 07405W 6967 03097 9978 +105 +050 040035 037 026 000 00
232100 2507N 07404W 6966 03098 9978 +102 +049 038034 034 025 000 00
232130 2505N 07402W 6967 03096 9975 +105 +049 039035 035 027 000 00
$$
;
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#1184 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:24 pm

What are the chances of Joaquin being a major hurricane at landfall?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1185 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:24 pm

Image
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Re:

#1186 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Image

Nice pass. :roll:
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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#1187 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:25 pm

Not so sure i would bet against a major looking at that sat pic.


Please stay tuned to NHC for official information.
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#1188 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:25 pm

Its looking quite good. Models have done good so far. Probably looking at a bordeline cat 3 by morning.
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Re:

#1189 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:26 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:What are the chances of Joaquin being a major hurricane at landfall?


It's gonna come down to how stable the core is and how much dry air it inherits if it ERC's.

I'm leaning towards yes, however.
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#1190 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:28 pm

Awesome that we actually have recon on the scene with what looks to be a strengthening phase at this time. Looking forward to the next couple hours of obs.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1191 Postby Jevo » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:29 pm

18z HWRF ended up with a 932mb 105kt Joaquin into North Topsail Beach NC in 73 hours... Going to be interesting to see which model verifies.
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#1192 Postby emeraldislenc » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:31 pm

Hey 57, what are your thoughts about what we might expect at Emerald Isle NC. I value your opinion! Thanks!!
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Re:

#1193 Postby ozonepete » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:32 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Looks like it stalled out. Anyone can confirm this?


I mentioned earlier it's doing something weird. There is quite a good possibility it is stalling out since, as Aric said, it has slowed down to a crawl. Also, since it is expected to make a tight turn to the north it would be expected to stall out before the turn. RECON will clear that up for us soon.
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Re:

#1194 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:32 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Awesome that we actually have recon on the scene with what looks to be a strengthening phase at this time. Looking forward to the next couple hours of obs.

They are dropping their altitude to measure the hurricane as we speak...and way out already getting pressure reading of 997
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Re:

#1195 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Image


That image suggests the center is already just below the 24.0 N line...maybe as low as 23.9 N. But I don't know if that is an accurate reflection of the LLC due to perhaps some tilt?? Also, that looks like it may be from 20:17 Z or 4 PM EDT? Anyone know?
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#1196 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:33 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 302331
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 24 20150930
232200 2504N 07401W 6967 03095 9976 +101 +060 040034 035 027 000 00
232230 2503N 07400W 6967 03093 9979 +099 +062 042034 035 028 000 00
232300 2502N 07358W 6967 03093 9975 +099 +062 041034 035 028 000 30
232330 2500N 07357W 6965 03093 9969 +105 +059 047037 038 029 000 00
232400 2459N 07356W 6967 03089 9964 +105 +057 049040 041 030 000 00
232430 2458N 07354W 6967 03089 9960 +108 +053 050043 044 030 000 00
232500 2456N 07353W 6965 03089 9954 +110 +049 050045 045 031 000 00
232530 2455N 07352W 6970 03080 9954 +111 +049 048046 046 031 000 00
232600 2454N 07350W 6967 03082 9950 +113 +050 047046 047 031 001 00
232630 2453N 07349W 6966 03082 9944 +115 +051 048048 048 033 000 00
232700 2451N 07348W 6966 03079 9946 +111 +054 044048 049 034 001 00
232730 2450N 07346W 6967 03076 9939 +115 +047 045046 047 035 000 00
232800 2449N 07345W 6967 03075 9939 +115 +049 045048 049 035 000 00
232830 2448N 07344W 6969 03070 9939 +113 +052 046049 049 037 000 00
232900 2446N 07342W 6969 03067 9940 +109 +058 049050 050 037 002 00
232930 2445N 07341W 6967 03067 9934 +110 +056 051053 054 036 002 00
233000 2444N 07340W 6973 03059 9935 +107 +063 051050 052 036 001 00
233030 2443N 07338W 6965 03065 9934 +104 +072 048050 050 036 000 00
233100 2441N 07337W 6969 03058 9939 +097 +078 045052 053 038 000 00
233130 2440N 07336W 6967 03059 9937 +097 +084 045053 053 040 001 00
$$
;
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#1197 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:35 pm

:uarrow: LLC is around 24.2N above. Notice the warm spot which is the eye.
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Re: Re:

#1198 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:35 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:


That image suggests the center is already just below the 24.0 N line...maybe as low as 23.9 N. But I don't know if that is an accurate reflection of the LLC. Also, that looks like it may be from 20Z or 4 PM EDT? Anyone know?


3 hours old.
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#1199 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:37 pm

Still not at the center but its like 993mb and winds are 40-45kts only.
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Re:

#1200 Postby TimeZone » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:39 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Its looking quite good. Models have done good so far. Probably looking at a bordeline cat 3 by morning.


I can't see that happening until it wraps it's heaviest convection around the Western side.
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