EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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Aric Dunn
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1161 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
alright to put this to an end. to be "right front" it has to be at a 90 degree angle otherwise it would not be right front its all relative directions.. see image below..


[img]http://s17.postimg.org/6ts6mo28f/wind_bln1.gif[img]


Ha ha you're agreeing with me. The area you outlined is the right front quadrant along the direction of motion which is what they teach in Meteo classes. That is not the NE or SE quadrant. If you insist on using directional compass terms it's the NNE-ESE quadrant. Why not just say right front?



Agreed on the quad part.. however the area that would have the theoretical maximum winds would be "ESE" of the center if moving NNE. Same concept two different relations.


to make it clearer, the right front with a nne motion would be from the ENE to SSE "quad" with the max possible winds at ESE. of course its not perfect in a hurricane to define an exact spot.. lol

SO outlined in yellow is the right front in this case. the red depicts the right angle ( or 90 degrees) to the forward motion not the actual right front quad in this case.

Image

SouthDadeFish wrote:Aric, thanks for the diagram. That's what I was trying to get across. The theoretical location where the cyclonic winds align most with the motion vector is in the SE quadrant (technically ESE, as you say). Yes the right front quadrant features convective asymmetries and largest storm surge among other effects, but my point was where the motion vector was most aligned with the storm's primary circulation. Regardless, there are other factors at play such as the shear vector, potential land interaction, and the secondary eyewall itself. This isn't a textbook case.




Not a problem... :P
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#1162 Postby TimeZone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:20 pm

That is some extremely impressive weakening. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't a cat 5 at landfall.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1163 Postby mpic » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:22 pm

Video still up here but struggling http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP5Y4lISF0s
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#1164 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:24 pm

Looks like the NE inner eyewall is beginning to weaken:

L. WEAKER WALL N-NE

You can see this on radar as well.
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#1165 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:24 pm

It is 190 mph, don't overplay the weakening.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1166 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:26 pm

The landfall advisory maybe around 145kt
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1167 Postby Kennethb » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:27 pm

Could the mountains of Mexico be causing some impacts for the weakening?
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1168 Postby linttrap » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:27 pm

Only webcam in that region I can find.

http://myearthcam.com/lamanzanilla

It's been glitching a lot with the wind gusts.
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#1169 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:29 pm

Even though Patricia is weakening a bit, this is still a very powerful hurricane. Some of the "shelters" I saw on Twitter today gives me a great reason for concern. This is why I'm quite excited to see any possible signs of weakening. I'll be curious to see what pressure readings are observed on the Mexican mainland.
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#1170 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:29 pm

Given undersampling, this was likely around 150 knots. Seeing a big degrade isn't too shocking. Very typical of most landfalling EPAc hurricanes, or really any worldwide system that is moving north at landfall.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1171 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:30 pm

Kennethb wrote:Could the mountains of Mexico be causing some impacts for the weakening?


oooh yes.. they cause many issues mostly the lack of inflow as well as the major turbulent flow that sends pressure waves through the system and having a varying pressure field when it should be a consistent gradual lowering causes many issues.
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#1172 Postby TimeZone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:30 pm

Looks to be making landfall any minute.
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Re:

#1173 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:31 pm

TimeZone wrote:Looks to be making landfall any minute.


Still a few frames away if I had to guess.
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#1174 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:33 pm

Don't forget about the inland rainfall threat, especially in regions of prolonged upslope flow.
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Re:

#1175 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:33 pm

NDG wrote:I've been watching live web cams, unfortunately none from Manzanillo or La Manzanilla, traffic is a mess in Gualdalajara, I guess people making preparations for the hurricane, it is insane their traffic.



Start to lose the feed from Manzanillo but Colima is still up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP5Y4lISF0s
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#1176 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:38 pm

12:49:50am EDT: 894mb, 25 knots ... 892mb
02:04:20am EDT: 890mb, 40 knots ... 886mb
02:49:00am EDT: 885mb, 57 knots ... 880mb

No recon period

01:35:53pm EDT: 883mb, 45 knots ... 879mb
04:37:34pm EDT: 910mb, 68 knots ... 900mb

There's no telling what it was inbetween.
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TimeZone

#1177 Postby TimeZone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:38 pm

Any live cams near where this is coming ashore?
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1178 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:38 pm

Just so everyone here gets the meteorology right going forward, here it is directly from the NHC:

Image

Here's the accompanying text:
Hurricane Approach To Port
In general, hurricanes forecast to make a perpendicular landfall tend to have the smallest amount of FTE. Conversely, systems that are forecast to parallel the coast, as is often noted in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, tend to have larger track errors. Additionally, hurricanes that make landfall within 50-100 NM of a particular port tend to be more destructive than those that approach the port from over land or parallel the coast in the vicinity of the port. Also, ports located in the right front quadrant, based on direction of movement of hurricanes during landfall tend to have higher winds, seas, and storm surge.

Full link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/marine.php
Last edited by ozonepete on Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#1179 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:38 pm

Periscope user in Manzanillo

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1DXxywEXkbnGM
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1180 Postby sunnyday » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:41 pm

Local radio met in So Fl said today, "When Patricia is through with Mexico, it is headed to So Fla. where extreme flooding is expected!"
What is that all about?
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