windnrain wrote:wxman57 wrote:All models are shifting farther south for landfall - North Carolina vs. Virginia. All models, that is, except the Eurpoean which takes it north of Bermuda and near Ireland at day 10. NHC is still wondering if the EC is right, so they likely won't make any significant track shift this afternoon - splitting the difference between most of the models and the EC. That pretty much guarantees their track will be wrong, but not as wrong as if they indicated a U.S. landfall and the EC track was right.
I hate this. This will be statistically "more correct" but in reality, less correct. We have models and we have humans who are paid to understand weather and who studied it all their lives. I'd love to see humans begin to commit to solutions here... and the ones who consistently get it right, should be rewarded.
Note that the NHC's primary mission relates to public safety. It doesn't do the public any good to show a 5-day track striking the coast when they're not very confident it will impact that area and the landfall point (if any) will likely change, perhaps considerably. Think back to Erika earlier this season. Florida was in a panic when track confidence was still low. The NHC forecasters have seen the evidence shift more strongly into the east coast hit scenario over the past 2-3 model runs and they've decided to commit. I thought they might hold off until tomorrow since the ECMWF is so far east and a few more of the EC ensembles shifted east as well.
Private companies, like the one I work for, deal with businesses, not the general public. These businesses have specific hurricane response plans that require actions to be taken 5-7 days prior to possible (not guaranteed) impact. We don't have the luxury of waiting until we're sure of landfall before committing. Believe me, I got into the office yesterday morning and saw how the models were diverging and I wished I could just issue a 48-72 hour track vs. the 7-day track we've been producing for years. I worked on the track for over 3 hours and came up with an east coast hit after first taking it out to sea past Bermuda.
