ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[windnrain]

All models are shifting farther south for landfall - North Carolina vs. Virginia. All models, that is, except the Eurpoean which takes it north of Bermuda and near Ireland at day 10. NHC is still wondering if the EC is right, so they likely won't make any significant track shift this afternoon - splitting the difference between most of the models and the EC. That pretty much guarantees their track will be wrong, but not as wrong as if they indicated a U.S. landfall and the EC track was right.

I hate this. This will be statistically "more correct" but in reality, less correct. We have models and we have humans who are paid to understand weather and who studied it all their lives. I'd love to see humans begin to commit to solutions here... and the ones who consistently get it right, should be rewarded.

[Aric Dunn]

Joaquin looks to be wobbling south quite a bit now, looks to be heading south long 73W.

Yet again off the NHC track...

lets not start the wobble wars yet

also I still see it dead on the track..

[Hammy]

Joaquin looks to be wobbling south quite a bit now, looks to be heading south long 73W.

Yet again off the NHC track...

There's still a good deal of mid level shear, watch on WV you can see cloud tops to the north and east blowing south, underneath the outflow. This is probably also behind the continued southward movement.

[EquusStorm]

The symmetry is amazing on visible. Not as impressive on IR but still pretty robust, with an eye quite visible on microwave. The convective envelope seems to have lurched southward in the last few frames but not sure if that's an illusion, a result of slightly drier air in a narrow wedge to the NW, the bit of shear present, or actually the case with a southward jog. It is definitely trying hard to organize further; sub-970 now.

[blazess556]

If Joaquin continues to move more south during the next 24-48hr like the EC, a mid-ocean trough in the central Atlantic under the strong ridge will likely cause an out to sea track.

[windnrain]

I'm wondering if the "more south" favors an out to sea solution, because it's not gaining any western component before it makes its turn.

[tolakram]

I hate this. This will be statistically "more correct" but in reality, less correct. We have models and we have humans who are paid to understand weather and who studied it all their lives. I'd love to see humans begin to commit to solutions here... and the ones who consistently get it right, should be rewarded.

Were they right because of forecasting skill or because of better guesses?

Using all the tools we have available I'm not sure anyone knows exactly where this is going, so for my money a track down the middle with the cone impacting the US is the perfect way to present it at the moment. Every time the track shows a landfall and a storm misses we hear howls of complaints about how this will make people complacent. Show a track out to sea and it turns back toward the coast the response is not going to be that much better.

NHC is not a commercial forecaster and live by a different set of rules.

In my opinion, anyway.

[Aric Dunn]

If Joaquin continues to move more south during the next 24-48hr like the EC, a mid-ocean trough in the central Atlantic under the strong ridge will likely cause an out to sea track.

there is still one big factor that the euro does the rest dont..the cut off low drops much farther ese nearly off the SE coast according to the euro that of course would swing it NE the rest of the models and earlier runs of the Euro keep that cut off low fairly in place or moves slight south allowing the cane to move north then back nw.. im not buying the Euro yet as it has multiple interactions that are not present yet.

[cycloneye]

wxman57,do you think Joaquin's track may be influenced by whatever 90L becomes?

[Aric Dunn]

I hate this. This will be statistically "more correct" but in reality, less correct. We have models and we have humans who are paid to understand weather and who studied it all their lives. I'd love to see humans begin to commit to solutions here... and the ones who consistently get it right, should be rewarded.

Were they right because of forecasting skill or because of better guesses?

Using all the tools we have available I'm not sure anyone knows exactly where this is going, so for my money a track down the middle with the cone impacting the US is the perfect way to present it at the moment. Every time the track shows a landfall and a storm misses we hear howls of complaints about how this will make people complacent. Show a track out to sea and it turns back toward the coast the response is not going to be that much better.

NHC is not a commercial forecaster and live by a different set of rules.

In my opinion, anyway.

Exactly why a series of smaller short term forecast to make adjustments is what the nhc does. short term affects long term.. you dont see them drastically changing their forecast every model run.. looking past 48 hours for absolutes is silly..

[Ivanhater]

Very cold cloud tops

[Aric Dunn]

Very cold cloud tops

yeah, also to note large convective burst tend to lead to erratic motion especially in the deepening stage and even more so in the development of the higher levels of a developing eye. its going to look like its going all over the place but the low the mid level circ typically is fairly steady. once recon gets out there then we will know its motion.

[tropicwatch]

Very cold cloud tops

yeah, also to note large convective burst tend to lead to erratic motion especially in the deepening stage and even more so in the development of the higher levels of a developing eye. its going to look like its going all over the place but the low the mid level circ typically is fairly steady. once recon gets out there then we will know its motion.

Appears to be still moving at a pretty good clip sw.

[AutoPenalti]

It's inching ever so closely and media outlets here in Florida has reassured everyone that a Florida threat is no longer possible. The silence and assurance shows compared to Ericka when it was projected to hit SFL within 128 hours and everyone started to hype it up.

[ronjon]

All models are shifting farther south for landfall - North Carolina vs. Virginia. All models, that is, except the Eurpoean which takes it north of Bermuda and near Ireland at day 10. NHC is still wondering if the EC is right, so they likely won't make any significant track shift this afternoon - splitting the difference between most of the models and the EC. That pretty much guarantees their track will be wrong, but not as wrong as if they indicated a U.S. landfall and the EC track was right.

Your going with the Euro???

Weatherwatcher98, several pages up thread wxman57 predicted a NC outer banks then Virginia beach landfall on Sunday as a CAT 2 storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Some updated microwave images would be nice.... but noooooo :p

[Kingarabian]

Some updated microwave images would be nice.... but noooooo :p

Seems like the microwave images are usually slow when they're really needed. Watch the passes come in with 20-30% coverage.

[ronjon]

Huge eye according to Jeff Masters blog today.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft made two penetrations of Joaquin's center on Wednesday morning, and found top surface winds of 80 mph, a central pressure of 971 mb, and a huge 54-mile diameter eye with a fully closed eyewall.

[Aric Dunn]

Some updated microwave images would be nice.... but noooooo :p

Seems like the microwave images are usually slow when they're really needed. Watch the passes come in with 20-30% coverage.

yeah out of all the satellites in orbit and all the money... only a tiny fraction is for weather and science.. lol

[Kingarabian]

Here's an hour old ATMS pass: