ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

well the gulfstream is out doing its synoptic run... 00z tonight should get a good boost.

[BobHarlem]

Joaquin is riding along the NHC track quite well, but seems to be ahead of schedule by about 4 hours (it's already at the 8PM plot point looking at the visible).

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Had a weird dream last night that Wilmington take a direct hit for some reason..

Gee. Thanks Aric!

[tatertawt24]

lol I had a dream about Joaquin too, but it made no sense. It was literally just an eye with no convection.

[crimi481]

The CDO becoming more round and eye may be reforming. Possibly trying to hulk up
Also have watching the cloudless swirl off N.E Coast Florida. Its been drifting south/stationary - not going N or N.E.?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-vis.html

I am not a Pro.

[AutoPenalti]

Models shifted west again?

[Hammy]

lol I had a dream about Joaquin too, but it made no sense. It was literally just an eye with no convection.

That would be mighty interesting to see happen

[emeraldislenc]

Will the models shift west at 5pm?

[stormlover2013]

nobody knows

[wxman57]

All models are shifting farther south for landfall - North Carolina vs. Virginia. All models, that is, except the Eurpoean which takes it north of Bermuda and near Ireland at day 10. NHC is still wondering if the EC is right, so they likely won't make any significant track shift this afternoon - splitting the difference between most of the models and the EC. That pretty much guarantees their track will be wrong, but not as wrong as if they indicated a U.S. landfall and the EC track was right.

[emeraldislenc]

what are the thoughts of people about a more west shift?

[Weatherwatcher98]

All models are shifting farther south for landfall - North Carolina vs. Virginia. All models, that is, except the Eurpoean which takes it north of Bermuda and near Ireland at day 10. NHC is still wondering if the EC is right, so they likely won't make any significant track shift this afternoon - splitting the difference between most of the models and the EC. That pretty much guarantees their track will be wrong, but not as wrong as if they indicated a U.S. landfall and the EC track was right.

Your going with the Euro???

[hohnywx]

All models are shifting farther south for landfall - North Carolina vs. Virginia. All models, that is, except the Eurpoean which takes it north of Bermuda and near Ireland at day 10. NHC is still wondering if the EC is right, so they likely won't make any significant track shift this afternoon - splitting the difference between most of the models and the EC. That pretty much guarantees their track will be wrong, but not as wrong as if they indicated a U.S. landfall and the EC track was right.

Your going with the Euro???

where on earth did he say that?

[Weatherwatcher98]

All models are shifting farther south for landfall - North Carolina vs. Virginia. All models, that is, except the Eurpoean which takes it north of Bermuda and near Ireland at day 10. NHC is still wondering if the EC is right, so they likely won't make any significant track shift this afternoon - splitting the difference between most of the models and the EC. That pretty much guarantees their track will be wrong, but not as wrong as if they indicated a U.S. landfall and the EC track was right.

Your going with the Euro???

where on earth did he say that?

I was asking him. Note the ???

[blazess556]

Sure the EcMWF is an outlier but I'm not convinced it is wrong until Joaquin stops moving to the south. The EuRO has led the way with SW jog/movement so far.

[Weatherboy1]

The CDO becoming more round and eye may be reforming. Possibly trying to hulk up
Also have watching the cloudless swirl off N.E Coast Florida. Its been drifting south/stationary - not going N or N.E.?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-vis.html

I am not a Pro.

Was wondering about that feature as well. Seeing as it's much closer to the front/trough over the Eastern U.S., I would've thought it would be getting dragged up and out to the N/NE ... and therefore signal an imminent turn for Joaquin. Wonder why it isn't?

Oh, and I'm a semi-educated amateur too. Listen to the experts!

[Weatherwatcher98]

Sure the EcMWF is an outlier but I'm not convinced it is wrong until Joaquin stops moving to the south.

Exactly. I don't live in the Notheast or Carolinas but I hope it is correct, like I posted before weird how some people want disaster.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Pretty storm, should ramp up fairly quickly. Here is my brief overview.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

00hrs - 85mph (strengthening)
12hrs - 90mph (strengthening)
24hrs - 100mph (strengthening)
*48hrs - 110mph (strengthening)
*72hrs - 120mph (steady), a few hundred miles off the SE coast
*96hrs - 100mph (weakening), landfall SE NC
*120hrs - 40mph (rapidly weakening), inland MidATL
Post 120-hrs: Remnants move northward, heavy rain and gusty winds over most of the northeast.

*Intensity forecast becomes somewhat difficult after 48hrs. If the storm strengthens more and or faster than expected, a strong category three is IMO not out of the question. I also think, again in my opinion, that it may wind down slightly slower than the models are suggusting, possibly staying as a strong category one or maybe even a weak category two up to landfall. Once inland, it should weaken rapidly to a tropical storm then tropical depression. This intensity forecast is likely to change. I will post another forecast tomorrow during the day.

[gatorcane]

Joaquin looks to be wobbling south quite a bit now, looks to be heading south long 73W.

Yet again off the NHC track...

[kunosoura]

Forgive me, as it's a little OT, but where is floridasun78? Frequent poster, last I saw. Hope he's OK. He's usually got some tidbit from his connection at NHC. Would love to hear if knows anything about how things are going down at the office