ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF at 168 hours, ramping up near the SE Bahamas, might be trying to recurve:

[tolakram]

Looks like it has an escape route.

[Siker]

That trough is so weak at 168 hours.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

That trough is so weak at 168 hours.

Here is the image at 168 hours, while the trough is weak, there is an escape route opening up:

[WPBWeather]

That trough is so weak at 168 hours.

Here is the image at 168 hours, while the trough is weak, there is an escape route opening up:

Please show whatever it's name the exit door!

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 192 hours, heading north and recurve has started, really ramping up:

[TheStormExpert]

Still looks to be some ridging.

[Siker]

Big difference at 192 hours, no reinforcing trough over the Great Lakes. Will it swing out still?

[SFLcane]

Will likely take track similar to danny with large weakness there

[TheStormExpert]

Big difference at 192 hours, no reinforcing trough over the Great Lakes. Will it swing out still?

Trough looks to be situated over the upper Midwest/Plains region(Central U.S.).

[tolakram]

:uarrow: Still looks to be some ridging.

You can't see ridging on that map, that's surface pressure. The 500mb anomaly map best shows ridges that will effect tropical storms.

[TheStormExpert]

There is that cutoff low SE of Canada that will most likely create enough of a weakness for 98L.

[gatorcane]

216 hours ramping up big time:

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC SUN AUG 23 2015
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982015) 20150823 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
        150823  1800   150824  0600   150824  1800   150825  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  36.7W   14.7N  40.2W   15.9N  44.0W   16.8N  47.8W
BAMD    13.7N  36.7W   14.1N  39.8W   14.6N  42.7W   15.4N  45.3W
BAMM    13.7N  36.7W   14.3N  40.1W   15.1N  43.6W   15.9N  46.9W
LBAR    13.7N  36.7W   14.0N  40.1W   14.5N  43.7W   15.1N  47.3W
SHIP        30KTS          40KTS          50KTS          59KTS
DSHP        30KTS          40KTS          50KTS          59KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
        150825  1800   150826  1800   150827  1800   150828  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.4N  51.9W   18.2N  59.7W   18.9N  67.2W   20.6N  74.1W
BAMD    16.4N  47.7W   18.5N  50.6W   19.0N  52.3W   18.9N  54.5W
BAMM    16.8N  50.0W   18.4N  55.4W   19.5N  60.2W   21.0N  65.3W
LBAR    15.9N  50.9W   17.2N  57.1W   18.5N  63.2W    0.0N   0.0W
SHIP        64KTS          67KTS          65KTS          65KTS
DSHP        64KTS          67KTS          65KTS          65KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR =  36.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  13.5N LONM12 =  32.9W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  13.5N LONM24 =  28.5W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[tolakram]

Hmmm

[N2FSU]

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF, 240 hours: