WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

euro,are there big mountains in Saipan or is flat?

[Dave C]

sat. pic is 1.5 hrs old, should be over Saipan now. Can't wait for next Saipan ob!

[euro6208]

Big drop

960 mb in Saipan 54 gusting to 81 mph now...

Soudelor has a very small core...

[euro6208]

euro,are there big mountains in Saipan or is flat?

Highest mountain is only +1500 feet elsewhere mostly flat. It's been a long time since Saipan got a direct hit from a typhoon...Trying to find info in this vast active basin...

[Dave C]

Jim Leonard chased Keith there in 1997, got some awesome shots from the cliffs on north side of island. He missed the eyewall there but was impressive nevertheless, was 175 mph while passing through!

[euro6208]

79 knots gust at Saipan airport...

[euro6208]

23 min ago...

It's pinhole about the size of both island!

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the link to the Saipan airport data?

[Dave C]

1232 utc sat pic eye directly over Saipan! Where are you getting updated obs from Euro?

[euro6208]

958 mb...It's falling like a meteor...

[euro6208]

Does anyone has the link to the Saipan airport data?

1232 utc sat pic eye directly over Saipan! Where are you getting updated obs from Euro?

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/PGSN.html

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ61 PGUM 021320
TCUPQ1

TYPHOON SOUDELOR (13W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP132015
1100 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

...1057 PM CHST...1257 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

AT 1057 PM CHST...1257 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON SOUDELOR WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.8
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 130 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE GUAM
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AT ELEVATION 1.5 DEGREES AND A HEIGHT OF 27600
FEET. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON AN APPARENT 4NM DIAMETER EYE AT 1.5
DEGREE ELEVATION. A DISTINCT WARM SPOT ON INFRARED IMAGERY
REPRESENTS THE DEVELOPING EYE.

THIS POSITION IS ABOUT

5 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
15 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
80 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
255 MILES SOUTH OF AGRIHAN
205 MILES SOUTH OF PAGAN
180 MILES SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN AND
135 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

RADAR-DETERMINED MOTION OF THE EYE DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS IS
9 KT (10 MPH) AT 295 DEGREES...WEST-NORTHWEST.

SUMMARY OF 1057 PM CHST...1257 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 145.8E ELEVATION...27600 FEET ABOUT 130 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST...30 DEGREES...OF THE GUAM RADAR. MOVEMENT IS WEST-
NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES...AT 9 KNOTS (10 MPH) OVER THE PAST 2
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE EYE POSITION IS EXCELLENT AS IT SHOWS UP IN
THE SAME POSITION AT THE 2.4 DEGREE SLICE AT 38700 FEET.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[Dave C]

I hit refresh and bingo! thanks Euro! fog in the eye! must have been a wild last hr there!

[euro6208]

I hit refresh and bingo! thanks Euro!

Here's a link for the whole Marianas and Micronesia as we head deeper into the season...Better to bookmark it.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/weatherobs.php

[euro6208]

Eye over Saipan?

Obs indicating 1002 mb...a huge increase...

[Dave C]

The last ob said heavy snow at 2320 funny stuff!

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 021225

A. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 02/1132Z

C. 15.10N

D. 145.98E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS (-.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT) A DT OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A 4.5 BASED
ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT, WHILE PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO CONSTRAINTS
(CHANGE >1.0 IN 6HRS).

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

Direct hit as it made landfall near Laulau beach...

NWS

The eye of typhoon Soudelor has made landfall near Laulau Beach on Saipan. Expect sustained winds of 95 to 105 mph with gusts to 120 mph for the central and southern part of Saipan over the next few hours. Anticipate sustained winds of 65 to 80 mph with gusts to 100 mph for the northern part of Saipan and Tinian over the next few hours.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now expecting a cat 5

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.9N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.7N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.2N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.9N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 145.3E.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 8 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[cycloneye]