EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 11:54:22 N Lon : 113:00:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 995.0mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -58.7C Cloud Region Temp : -52.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.0 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 11:41:49 N Lon : 113:08:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 983.0mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -16.9C Cloud Region Temp : -58.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.8 degrees

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

Andres is continuing to intensify. Although the cloud tops
near the center have recently warmed, the latest microwave and
conventional satellite images are now showing the formation of a
ragged eye. An average of the latest intensity estimates is just
below hurricane strength, so the initial wind speed is set to 60
kt.

The storm appears to be moving to the west-northwest at about 9 kt,
a bit slower than before. Andres should turn northwestward
tomorrow as a result of a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge.
In a few days, the ridge restrengthens, which should then steer
Andres more toward the west-northwest and west. The latest models
have again shifted to the left, apparently due to a stronger ridge
than originally predicted, and the official forecast follows the
westward trend in the model consensus.

Although it seems clear that the cyclone should strengthen over the
next couple of days with generally favorable environmental
conditions, the amount of shear is a wild card for this forecast.
Most of the global models are showing shear values that are higher
than ideal for rapid intensification, and the shear is the biggest
inhibitor in the latest SHIPS RI index. Andres has been moving
left of expected, however, which has been prolonging the lower shear
and warmest water conditions. Thus, the new NHC wind speed forecast
will remain above most of the guidance, similar to the previous
prediction, and it would not be surprising if this forecast is too
low for the reasons given above. After 48 hours, Andres should
begin to weaken when it encounters cooler waters and a more stable
air mass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 11.8N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 12.5N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 13.5N 115.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 14.4N 116.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 15.3N 116.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 17.5N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

NHC disco mentions shear for the first time, but then again, SHIPS doesn't have any higher shear than it did last package, and with a ridge keeping it south and west, it should protect it from an upper level trough around 30N and the subtropical jet of around 15-20N.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2015 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 11:36:54 N Lon : 113:11:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 983.1mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 5.0 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW AdjEnd
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.7 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2015 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 11:45:00 N Lon : 113:14:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 981.3mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 5.1 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -63.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.7 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

MVP!!

[Yellow Evan]

Sorry if I've been posting too many of these, but I care about there.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 11:50:07 N Lon : 113:21:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 979.4mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.2 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -24.6C Cloud Region Temp : -65.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.6 degrees

[dexterlabio]

i have a hard time processing that this is only a tropical storm..moreso a Cat1... And I don't think it's a hype to expect at least a Cat 4 out of this one...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Undeniably Andres esta un huracan.

[Cyclenall]

I didn't even know there was a named storm in the Epac (knew about an Invest but didn't look into it) and it already has Dvorak values of 4.6, 5.2, 5.5 .

[Ntxw]

i have a hard time processing that this is only a tropical storm..moreso a Cat1... And I don't think it's a hype to expect at least a Cat 4 out of this one...

Hype it! the past 12+ months hyping as verified in this basin! This is clearly already a Hurricane.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I hype that it would be a cat 5, or at least close.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Andres's intensification trend appears to have ceased for the
moment. Infrared satellite imagery suggests that the cyclone is
trying to develop a banded-eye structure, but the overall pattern
really hasn't improved much since the last advisory. In fact, the
Dvorak final-T number from TAFB decreased to 3.5, and remained at
3.5 from SAB, so the initial intensity is being held at 60 kt.

The storm is moving a little slower to the west-northwest, or 295/8
kt, to the south of the subtropical ridge. A slight weakness in the
ridge should allow Andres to move northwestward later today through
Saturday night. The ridge is forecast to rebuild, however, and the
cyclone will likely move west-northwestward and then westward on
days 3-5. There has been no apparent shift in the latest track
guidance as there had been in previous cycles, and therefore the
updated NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the
previous one.

The SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that a modest amount of north-
northeasterly shear is affecting Andres, which could be the reason
for the temporary hiatus in strengthening. SHIPS indicates that
the current level of shear should continue for the next 24 hours,
and after that the thermodynamic environment becomes gradually less
favorable for significant strengthening. Due to these less-than-
ideal conditions, the latest intensity guidance shows Andres peaking
at a lower intensity compared to previous cycles, and the updated
NHC intensity forecast has therefore been lowered a bit. Even with
this adjustment, however, the official forecast is still higher
than most of the models, especially at 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 12.0N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 12.8N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 13.8N 115.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 14.8N 116.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 17.0N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2015 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 12:11:06 N Lon : 113:57:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 985.5mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.2 4.2

Center Temp : -71.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.2 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

Convection appears on the rise. But with this storm, who knows what the NHC will do?

[euro6208]

I LOVE tracking EPAC and ATL storms with clear straight warnings with discussions from NHC who uses 1 min and the JTWC also uses 1 min also with discussions but the RSMC? uses 10 min with no discussion

How grateful

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I LOVE tracking EPAC and ATL storms with clear straight warnings with discussions from NHC who uses 1 min and the JTWC who uses 1 min also with discussions but the RSMC? uses 10 min with no discussion

How grateful

JMA has a discussion, it is not just released to the public

10 min winds actually are closer to reality than 1 min winds

Now please do not involve that in the ePac discussion, it is pointless

It has been going over and over again.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 12:13:29 N Lon : 114:00:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 985.5mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.2 4.2

Center Temp : -70.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.2 degrees

[talkon]

01E ANDRES 150529 1200 12.3N 114.4W EPAC 60 994

Huh? SAB is at 4.0
20150529 1200 12.2 114.2 T4.0/4.0 01E ANDRES