SPAC: INVEST 96P

[jaguarjace]

9.0S 160.4E

[jaguarjace]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
162.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 163.1E, APPROXIMATELY 865 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND ELONGATED LLCC WITH
DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 220905Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND ELONGATED WITH NO
IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Extratropical94]

This was tropical depression 03F by the way.

From the archives:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 08.2S 162.0E AT
212100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANISED AND LIES EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.