ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[caneman]

So, what are we looking at here WXMN57? Will it develop? If so, where? Where will it head? Would love your thoughts.

[ravyrn]

CNN's Chad Myers overhyping this system. Sigh.

[tailgater]

Props to OzonePete and Dean4Storms, as they saw this new center taking hold ahead of time. I believed it was too just never posted it. Looks pretty clear now that if this where (a big if) to get going, it would be further North.

I would have to argue that, I think the National Hurricane Center has it right where they have it placed at.

[Calin1171]

Lots of discussion over the past couple of days about LLC's, MLC's, naked swirls, etc. Can someone explain what you all are looking at in the imagery that is defining that? Are you looking at visible imagery or IR? And what are you looking for? I guess I'm really asking for the remedial class here - mostly I can look at a visible image and see a bunch of clouds rotating counterclockwise around a dark dot and figure we have a tropical system to talk about, but have no idea whether what I'm seeing is at the "mid level" or "upper level", etc. Can someone help me out?

[wxman57]

Just got 12Z models in. Don't know why NHC initialized it at 20.7N/92.8W. Can't see anything there. Of course, the far south initialization means most of the models shifted south into Mexico. Appearance on satellite (with sfc obs plotted) is looking quite frontal now. Dry air flowing south off the TX coast. Frontal boundary, weak as it is, extends SW off the mid Gulf coast then what looks like a trof axis extending south to the BoC. Looks just like a frontal wave up around 26N or so. Here, take a look:

[wxman57]

Props to OzonePete and Dean4Storms, as they saw this new center taking hold ahead of time. I believed it was too just never posted it. Looks pretty clear now that if this where (a big if) to get going, it would be further North.

I would have to argue that, I think the National Hurricane Center has it right where they have it placed at.

Based on what? They probably made the estimate before the first visible imagery. I'm not seeing anything to monitor way down there.

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 26N90W
THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 21N93W TO S MEXICO NEAR 17N94W.
A MID/UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE NEAR 22N90W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDING AN AXIS E OF THE LOWS
THROUGH THE GULF TO ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA DRAWING THE
MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NE OF THE LOW LEVEL
SYSTEM. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W ALONG 26N87W TO OVER
NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[chrisnnavarre]

What's going on around 21.5N 93W ?

[Dean4Storms]

Strange, wind shift at this buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Squalls moving in from the south - outflow boundary.

Prolly right. Thanks!

[Gustywind]

Here is a SSD recap for 92L.


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/1145 UTC 20.9N 92.7W TOO WEAK 92L
17/0545 UTC 20.7N 92.6W TOO WEAK 92L
16/2345 UTC 21.0N 91.6W TOO WEAK 92L
16/1745 UTC 21.4N 91.5W TOO WEAK 92L
15/1745 UTC 18.8N 87.5W TOO WEAK 92L
15/1145 UTC 18.8N 85.5W T1.0/1.0 92L
15/0545 UTC 18.0N 84.9W T1.0/1.0 92L
14/2345 UTC 17.5N 84.3W T1.0/1.0 92L
14/1745 UTC 17.7N 84.8W T1.0/1.0 92L
14/1145 UTC 17.6N 82.6W TOO WEAK 92L

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171135
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

[tailgater]

Props to OzonePete and Dean4Storms, as they saw this new center taking hold ahead of time. I believed it was too just never posted it. Looks pretty clear now that if this
where (a big if) to get going, it would be further North.

I would have to argue that, I think the National Hurricane Center has it right where they have it placed at.

Based on what? They probably made the estimate before the first visible imagery. I'm not seeing anything to monitor way down there.

just the weak LLC that was shown on shortwave

[Dean4Storms]

Maybe a circulation near 24N 90.5W

[Portastorm]

One thing is for certain -- and a glance at water vapor shows this -- there is a LOT of dry air on the back side coming in. Very typical of this time of year in the WGOM.

[Dean4Storms]

Right at 4 inches of rain at my house overnight and still pouring!

[Gustywind]

Update

Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel

Aug 17, 2013 5:14 am ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/


- Still watching Invest 92-L in the southern Gulf of Mexico.



- Some development possible, but significant U.S. impacts appear unlikely.



- Tropical moisture will enhance rainfall across the northern Gulf Coast this weekend.

GULF OF MEXICO

The low level circulation associated with Invest 92-L has waned again and remains separated from the deepest thunderstorms to the north. A mid to upper-level low is still spinning closer to these thunderstorms and persistent storms could warm the environment sufficiently to weaken the upper low and allow a new low level circulation to form. Latest surface observations and microwave satellite, however, continue to show the surface low to the south but pressures over the Gulf remain high. Bottom line: despite its impressive comma appearance on satellite this evening, 92-L remains disorganized.

The forecast remains unchanged and 92-L will move west-northwest this weekend. Abundant moisture from the northern end of the disturbance will feed northward and focus along a frontal boundary across the Gulf Coast. Heavy rainfall and flooding will be the primary U.S. impact from 92-L.

[Portastorm]

Right at 4 inches of rain at my house overnight and still pouring!

How about sending some of that liquid gold over to your friends in Texas?!

[Dean4Storms]

Right at 4 inches of rain at my house overnight and still pouring!

How about sending some of that liquid gold over to your friends in Texas?!

I'm really hoping you guys get a good dose of the rain from this. We've had way too much. I had a little over 18 inches in July and this month looks like it might repeat!

[Bailey1777]

i never wishcast but really wanted this and the rain involved. doesnt take a pro to see this mess is on life support---imo---

[jasons2k]

There's enough images in now for a visible loop, and there is still a swirl down there to the south. But the whole thing does look like a long trough at this point. Just a slopfest.