ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Stormlover2012]

So u a rays Dan huh??? My cousin Buchholz usually shuts them down lol

[HurriGuy]

There is a big plume of dry air racing towards the western GOM shown on the water vapor. Is this pretty much the knockout blow?

[HurriGuy]

NHC sticking with 40/50 at 2:00.....goodnight

[caneman]

Props to OzonePete and Dean4Storms, as they saw this new center taking hold ahead of time. I believed it was too just never posted it. Looks pretty clear now that if this where (a big if) to get going, it would be further North.

[Hammy]

I am still not quite seeing any new center forming, as the low cloud elements are still moving towards the west at 22/92, and WV imagery still shows the ULL pretty well defined a tad northeast of 22/91.

[EastCoastlow]

Amen ^^^^^^

[HouTXmetro]

Yeah, convection is firing around the "old LLC" I stated earlier that people were confusing the ULL as a the LLC.

[caneman]

Yeah, convection is firing around the "old LLC" I stated earlier that people were confusing the ULL as a the LLC.

I don't think anyone is confusing it. The ULL looks to have worked down to a MLC and possible a LLC taking over. The old one will die off and/or move inland shortly IMHO. Honestly, the whole mess doesn't look any good right now. If anything were to get going, it looks like it would take awhile and would need to sit.

[HurriGuy]

The latest model runs are focused on what none of us think the potential LLC is. Where the models think it is way to far west to me. They have it at 92.5 W, 20.5 N. I would think if this organized with where we think the potential LLC is, all these models would drastically shift back north. Latest run has basically every one of them into Mexico.

[Airboy]

Would be interesting to see visual sat pictures of the 23.0N 90.5W area right now.

Pressure at the buoy NE of the area is going down:

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1012.2 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -2.2 mb ( Falling )

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[EastCoastlow]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/animvis.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

[HurriGuy]

Okay....is anyone giving this thing anymore hope?

[LSU2001]

I am watching but not expecting much. I figure if that old Upper Level Low gets all the way down to the surface then we might get a weak depression or storm. Things have a way of changing quickly in the gulf though.
Tim

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 081618.gif

[HurriGuy]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 081618.gif

What does this mean? Never seen this before?

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 081618.gif

What does this mean? Never seen this before?

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) is a bulletin released by the U.S. Navy-operated Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii or the Naval Maritime Forecast Center in Norfolk, Virginia, warning of the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming from a tropical disturbance that has been monitored. Such alerts are generally always issued when it is fairly certain that a tropical cyclone will form and are not always released prior to cyclone genesis, particularly if the cyclone appears suddenly. The TCFA consists of several different checks that are performed by the on-duty meteorologist of the system and its surroundings. If the condition being checked is met, a certain amount of points are given to the system.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_C ... tion_Alert

[EastCoastlow]

It's time to stop sitting on the fence IMO hurricane will develop and move towards the Louisiana/MS Gulf Coast.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

A TCFA has been out for this disturbance for days. This is just an update. It only means there is a good chance of TC formation, something we already know. It doesn't mean development/classification is imminent.

[Dean4Storms]

Strange, wind shift at this buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[wxman57]

Strange, wind shift at this buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Squalls moving in from the south - outflow boundary.