ATL: KAREN - Models

[Dean4Storms]

essentially the same story as with every other system if we get a deeper system its quite likely a more east track.. similar to the runs a couple days ago into the big bend.. and if weak likely central LA

With the current trend of organization and deepening you can just about throw out the further west scenario's as none of those models hardly even close off a low much less
develop a TC near the Yucatan Channel.

[Stormcenter]

I thought the further west tracks also had something to do with the front arriving slower than anticipated and not just the strength of whatever develops. IMO

essentially the same story as with every other system if we get a deeper system its quite likely a more east track.. similar to the runs a couple days ago into the big bend.. and if weak likely central LA

With the current trend of organization and deepening you can just about throw out the further west scenario's as none of those models hardly even close off a low much less
develop a TC near the Yucatan Channel.

[ROCK]

I thought the further west trend also had something to do with the front arriving slower than anticipated and not just the strength of whatever develops. IMO

essentially the same story as with every other system if we get a deeper system its quite likely a more east track.. similar to the runs a couple days ago into the big bend.. and if weak likely central LA

With the current trend of organization and deepening you can just about throw out the further west scenario's as none of those models hardly even close off a low much less
develop a TC near the Yucatan Channel.

that is correct....also take into account the GOM is not all that favorable for development into a deep system. All globals keep this as a 1008ish TC if that....until they change I dont throw any model out the window...

[PTrackerLA]

It IS 2013 and I'm extremely hesitant to believe any of the models that make this much more than a very weak tropical storm. In a normal year I would be quite concerned for the Gulf Coast in this situation. Looking forward to the 50's though!

[ROCK]

It IS 2013 and I'm extremely hesitant to believe any of the models that make this much more than a very weak tropical storm. In a normal year I would be quite concerned for the Gulf Coast in this situation. Looking forward to the 50's though!

agreed, the front will be a nice change. The season has been so frustrating its almost a relief that it is almost over... less stress!...technically it is over for Texas so ready to move on to 2014 season.

[ROCK]

12Z NAM still into SW LA....deepens it to about 1005 but then weakens it to 1010...

[supercane4867]

12Z GFS running at 87HR
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013100212/gfsfull_pres_wind_watl_30.png

Near hurricane strength

[stormlover2013]

isn't over till that fat lady sings!!!!!!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hmm on that run GFS is still stronger with the system, but takes it further west than it showed earlier. Does ti slow up teh approachign front?

[Stormcenter]

Ok so what happened to the shear that was going to keep it in check?

12Z GFS running at 87HR
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013100212/gfsfull_pres_wind_watl_30.png

Near hurricane strength

[deltadog03]

It appears that the GFS tries to move the upper high, thats over it now, northward with the system.

[tropicwatch]

Ok so what happened to the shear that was going to keep it in check?

12Z GFS running at 87HR
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013100212/gfsfull_pres_wind_watl_30.png

Near hurricane strength

Ouch!

[Alyono]

987mb at landfall as per the GFS

[cajungal]

Looks like a westward trend taking place with the models?

[deltadog03]

Looks like a 55-60kt at landfall….somewhere around there?

[ronjon]

If the GFS continues this trend and organization ramps up today, we could have our first FL hurricane LF in what 7 years?

[deltadog03]

I am interested to see if the models will keep moving the upper high northward with this into the northern gom. 12z GFS did, i.e. stronger system. I think its going to be a race btwn this moving northward, and the huge trof incoming from the west.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a westward trend taking place with the models?

GFS came east quite a bit this run.

[chaser1]

I am interested to see if the models will keep moving the upper high northward with this into the northern gom. 12z GFS did, i.e. stronger system. I think its going to be a race btwn this moving northward, and the huge trof incoming from the west.

I'll be honest, at first glance today I fully expected nearly all convection gained from last night to be gone. Though I am not overly impressed given what past storms/past years have looked, it certainly attaining a better look and looks to be organizing slowly at the lower levels. It just seems that its not nearly firing on all 8 cylanders and what seems to be still lacking is that explosive bursting and quicker development of a CDO. One cant really blame the upper level conditions and in fact is now showing better outflow to the west. Therefore while looking at the GFS as previously stated, I have a couple problems with "it" verses the NAVGEM. Looking at the 500mb ridge in place, I just dont see how the 12Z GFS run has this E.Gulf ridge eroded so quickly (like 6-12 hours??), thus allowing a deepening low to better turn more poleward. I suppose that if more significant deepening were presently occuring, this might seem a bit more plausible, but I'm just not buying into any quick development - I just dont see it.

Meanwhile the GEM (or NAM) just seems way to quick for me to buy into this low being on the N. Gulf Coast in 60 hours. The NAVGEM seems like a more reasonable outcome by 1) indicating that little significant development is to occur in the near term, thus allowing the low to have less of a NNW motion and move more Northwest to a position of just north of W. Yucatan as a 1009 low. 2) Because this relatively weak system isn't able to better develop any decent core thus helping the upper anticyclone to build over it, this is where upper level conditions will deteriorate due to southerly shear from the aforementioned upper anticyclone (now to its East). The only thing I could see perhaps might be some deepening (baroclinic?) nearly along the front while sliding more eastward from near Louisiana towards Pensacola, but that would be based on timing at that point. So at least the way I see it, just another bust in a season striving to suck

[Dean4Storms]

That 12z GFS run has my full attention. Looks like a Panama City landfall.