ATL: INGRID - Models

[Rgv20]

18zGFS has 93L meandering in the BOC thru 117hrs



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[Wx_Warrior]

Look at the 12z GFS and look at the 18z run today.

[Rgv20]

Look at the 12z GFS and look at the 18z run today.

We are talking 5 days out on a system that has not even formed yet....the 18zGFS is showing what some of the 12zGFS Ensemble Members were showing, a more southern track.

[South Texas Storms]

Look at the 12z GFS and look at the 18z run today.

We are talking 5 days out on a system that has not even formed yet....the 18zGFS is showing what some of the 12zGFS Ensemble Members were showing, a more southern track.

Actually not really Rgv. Through 147 hrs it's moving NNW.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013091018/gfsfull_pres_pwat_watl_50.png

[Rgv20]

By day 6 the GFS has it creeping up Northward...



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[PTrackerLA]

Well I spoke too soon, looks like a Brownsville hit.

[Rgv20]

Well I will be surprised 18zGFS ends up being the same as 12zGFS just 18 hours slower, Brownsville landfall moving NW by Monday late night.

[Wx_Warrior]

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[ROCK]

if its a stronger system more north....that 500mb flow is right into Mid-TX coast

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_46.png

[ROCK]

if you go out further it actually creeps by Brownsville some....another movement to the north on this run....now we need to see the EURO and tonights 0Z GFS...

18Z NAVGEM has sure changed from 12Z.... 84hours

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_15.png

[jeff]

18Z GFS is really wet for much of coastal/central and E TX. Easily 10 inches of rainfall +. While we are in drought this amount of rainfall would put us into flood on most river systems.

[stormlover2013]

What does the navgem end up showing ?

[bamajammer4eva]

Interesting how GFS model seems to be swinging from one climatologically favored track to another. The top map was the 18z GFS forecast from yesterday showing it staying west toward Mexico. The 2nd Map is tonight's 18z GFS showing a hefty right shifting trend as it hints that it may be getting picked up. Wonder if the trend will continue to shift to the right with time as NAVGEM hinted at earlier and to a more typical path common in the fall.

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting how GFS model seems to be swinging from one climatologically favored track to another. The top map was the 18z GFS forecast from yesterday showing it staying west toward Mexico. The 2nd Map is tonight's 18z GFS showing a hefty right shifting trend as it hints that it may be getting picked up. Wonder if the trend will continue to shift to the right with time as NAVGEM hinted at earlier and to a more typical path common in the fall.

http://i.imgur.com/cq88oW1l.png


http://i.imgur.com/ENoeeIkl.png

http://i.imgur.com/41lcJA3.gif

Usually in the fall you won't see TC's in the W. GoM, Wilma type tracks towards the E. GoM and FL are more common in the fall especially October.

[ROCK]

the 18Z NAVGEM did a 360 and went the other way than the 12Z..... Wide swing with that model. Usually its just a suttle shift but that was crazy. The 12Z basically obliterates the ridge with back to back short waves....able to dig Ingrid out from the SGOM which seems unlikely, IMO, with it being the only model that has showed such a scenario......

cant deny though trend has been up the coast with the GFS....need to see if the EURO is sniffing this as well tonight.

[jeff]

[quote="bamajammer4eva"]Interesting how GFS model seems to be swinging from one climatologically favored track to another. The top map was the 18z GFS forecast from yesterday showing it staying west toward Mexico. The 2nd Map is tonight's 18z GFS showing a hefty right shifting trend as it hints that it may be getting picked up. Wonder if the trend will continue to shift to the right with time as NAVGEM hinted at earlier and to a more typical path common in the fall.

Todays run is much stronger and a stronger system is going to move more poleward unless ridging is strong to its north. Intensity will play a key role in the track....but breaking down of the ridge over TX this weekend is concerning

[Tireman4]

Todays run is much stronger and a stronger system is going to move more poleward unless ridging is strong to its north. Intensity will play a key role in the track....but breaking down of the ridge over TX this weekend is concerning[/quote]

When you get concerned, I get concerned. I respect your ( and other pro mets here) opinion so much. We thank you for ALL you do. Taking time out of your busy day is much appreciated. So far, we wait and watch....

[stormlover2013]

Have y'all been reading what Levi Cowan been tweeting?

[Nikki]

Have y'all been reading what Levi Cowan been tweeting?

I haven't, I am not able to access Twitter right now. Do you mind sharing?

[cycloneye]

00z Guidance.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0113 UTC WED SEP 11 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932013) 20130911 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130911 0000 130911 1200 130912 0000 130912 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 86.8W 18.7N 88.9W 19.3N 90.8W 19.5N 92.7W
BAMD 18.0N 86.8W 18.5N 88.3W 19.1N 89.8W 19.6N 91.3W
BAMM 18.0N 86.8W 18.6N 88.5W 19.1N 90.3W 19.5N 92.2W
LBAR 18.0N 86.8W 18.3N 88.5W 19.3N 90.3W 20.4N 92.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130913 0000 130914 0000 130915 0000 130916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 94.3W 19.1N 97.4W 18.5N 100.0W 18.1N 101.5W
BAMD 20.0N 92.6W 20.6N 94.9W 21.2N 97.3W 21.7N 99.7W
BAMM 19.7N 93.8W 19.7N 96.7W 19.4N 99.4W 19.0N 101.3W
LBAR 21.5N 93.8W 23.5N 96.2W 25.8N 97.5W 28.3N 97.8W
SHIP 47KTS 57KTS 65KTS 73KTS
DSHP 42KTS 44KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 86.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 85.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 84.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$