ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

Looks very impressive. A rare statement for this season.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Should be a tropical depression shortly.

[hurricanes1234]

I would say a TD by 5:00 PM, and I still think this would become a hurricane.

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[hurricaneCW]

91L looks like what forecasters believed the season would look like with powerful waves quickly developing.

I'm interested to see if it'll develop into a hurricane by the 11th and how strong it gets.

[cycloneye]

80%-90%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW WHILE THE
LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED IF A
DEPRESSION FORMS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY
TONIGHT.

[gatorcane]

systems in the eastern Atlantic do not garner public interest

Yes as we are seeing that now as I notice that the BOC "model" storm thread for a system that doesn't even exist yet is getting more hits than this thread

Lastest saved vis loop below. System heading west and definitely organizing:

[Sanibel]

Will it beat the deadline?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know. I can understand this not getting much attention but the gulf has nothing. Been trying to set people straight over in that thread today

[supercane4867]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 19.5W TO 14.5N 22.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091242Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 18.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PRAIA, CAPE VERDE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OVSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLOSED CIRCULATION IS PRESENT. DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AS THE
FEATURE MOVES INTO AN AREA OF LOWER WIND SHEAR.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 101230Z.//

[brunota2003]

I am here...I'm just watching from the sidelines. I not holding my breath on this system, seen a couple this year that formed and looked good...made it to TS and then suddenly (against predictions) POOF! So I'm going with the Missouri state motto "Show Me".

[CrazyC83]

Almost a closed circulation. Unflagged 35+ kt barb as well SE of Cape Verde.

[HenkL]

Visible 18Z (from http://wolken.buienradar.nl/nl/wa?ir=false):

[supercane4867]

Almost a closed circulation. Unflagged 35+ kt barb as well SE of Cape Verde.

Notice that OSCAT has a very high bias on surface windspeed

[HurricaneDREW92]

TD at 5pm.

[HURAKAN]

looks quite impressive

[TheStormExpert]

People are assuming that this will become a hurricane, but are any of the models like the GFS and Euro. showing a hurricane out of this still?

[cycloneye]

08/1745 UTC 13.1N 21.1W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

[supercane4867]

TAFB at T2.0/30kt
May get the upgrade soon

AL, 91, 201309081745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1350N, 2120W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, EC, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , MET10, CSC, T, FT based on Data T and PT.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013090818, , BEST, 0, 130N, 202W, 25, 1007, LO,

[gatorcane]

People are assuming that this will become a hurricane, but are any of the models like the GFS and Euro. showing a hurricane out of this still?

GFS brings this down to 992MB by 90 hours. CMC brings this to 990MB. Euro only shows 1004MB but the Euro is usually more conservative.