ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

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Tyler Penland
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#81 Postby Tyler Penland » Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:11 am

Of note the CMC initialized that energy in the Caribbean as a giant blob instead of two distinct pieces. JMO of course but that could account for part of that weird run. The GFS was spot on with the latest CIMMS analysis.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#82 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:13 am

RGV....plenty of ridge there with weakness along the TX coast....this might ride up the coast...the NAVGEM had a simialr solution a few days ago
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#83 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:20 am

CMC reminds me of Claudette 2003

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#84 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:22 am

Rules should be when posting any cmc model run should have to include disclaimer... For entertainment purposes only :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#85 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:24 am

yeah Claudette really got her act together quickly as it approached...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#86 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:28 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Rules should be when posting any cmc model run should have to include disclaimer... For entertainment purposes only :lol:

Why? They all have their strengths and weaknesses and none of them are always right. Of course there are people who make fun of every model that exists, so maybe we should nix them all and just wing it. :P Kidding, of course.
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#87 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:36 am

If I recall the CMC was the only one that got Andrea's intensity right--the rest of the models kept it barely a tropical storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#88 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:48 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Rules should be when posting any cmc model run should have to include disclaimer... For entertainment purposes only :lol:


It's actually doing pretty good this year in comparison to last year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#89 Postby LaBreeze » Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:00 am

PTrackerLA wrote:CMC 132 Hr Image

984mb turning WNW towards southern Texas?

Is that turn due to the front?
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#90 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:01 am

0zHWRF 126hr Forecast has it just east of Brownsville......This should be taken with a grain of salt as the HWRF does a poor job on intensity with Invests.

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#91 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:18 am

Well, pure speculation at this point, buy BOTH HWRF and CMC south Texas. Other's in Mexico. Seems like trending away from NGOM, but there is plenty of time for things to evolve.
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#92 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:19 am

LaBreeze wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:CMC 132 Hr [img]http://i.imgur.com/8tUwZ8z.png

984mb turning WNW towards southern Texas?

Is that turn due to the front?


Is due to a building ridge to its North.

0zCMC 500mb Heights Anomalies day 6
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0zGFS Ensembles 500mb Heights Anomalies day 6
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#93 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:29 am

Looking at the 850mb Vorticity of the 0zECMWF looks similar to the 0zGFS...My head hurts! :lol:
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#94 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:30 am

Rgv20 wrote:Looking at the 850mb Vorticity the 0zECMWF looks similar to the 0zGFS...My head hurts! :lol:


You found something in tonight's euro? I didn't see much of anything. Maybe a terrible initialization, forecast, and ending...
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#95 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:34 am

:uarrow: Nope, all I see is that it stretches out the 850mb Vorticity sends a piece to the Northern GOM and southern part just fades away.
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#96 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:21 am

Yeah, the 0z ECMWF is very similar to the 0z GFS.
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#97 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:12 am

These models are likely to do the windshield wiper somewhat until we have a LLC clearly defined. They're all picking various places for cyclogenesis.
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#98 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:35 am

6Z GFS more intense and into the New Orleans area
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#99 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:46 am

Image
Shear may become an issue longterm per 00z...
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#100 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:49 am

A reminder to all

when referencing the SHIPS shear, please make sure you also note the track. The shear forecast is not worth anything if it heads to Louisiana as SHIPS is using the BAMM track into southern Mexico
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