ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
SunnyThoughts
- Category 5
- Posts: 2263
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
- Location: Pensacola, Florida
-
floridasun78
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139594
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Small tight circulation.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Hurricane_Luis
- Category 2
- Posts: 723
- Age: 26
- Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
- Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
If i am correct, this tight circulation is at about 12-12,5N and not at 13°N.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
OURAGAN wrote:If i am correct, this tight circulation is at about 12-12,5N and not at 13°N.
Yeah, that looks about right to me too. Maybe around 12.5 and near 22W?? On the other hand, while looking at the loop, there still seems to be some level circulation that hangs back to the east a bit so just not sure. Based on the tighter COC based on the recent pass, one would think 93L might develop first, but am gonna throw my guess in....that 92L develops into a depression first, and into a named storm first. Main reason simply because 93L still remains too embedded within the ITCZ for the moment, though it'll likely end up wrapping up the whole damn thing right into it in time.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
MiamiHurricanes10
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 260
- Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:56 pm
- Location: Miami, Florida
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139594
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Impressive closeup ASCAT pass made at 6:30 PM EDT.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139594
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AFTER THAT...
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND IT HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AFTER THAT...
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND IT HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
-
northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:Tropical Cyclone tonight @ 11pm?
Looking at the latest ASCAT Pass, I don't see any reason why not.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
8 PM Discussion.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
19N22W TO THE LOW NEAR 13N22W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON THURSDAY.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 22W-
25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N-15N
BETWEEN 16W-33W. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
19N22W TO THE LOW NEAR 13N22W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON THURSDAY.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 22W-
25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N-15N
BETWEEN 16W-33W. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
Gustywind wrote:Latest SSD numbers. Not much changes in terms of intensity.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/2345 UTC 13.8N 22.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1745 UTC 13.1N 21.8W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1200 UTC 12.5N 20.8W TOO WEAK 93L
That's a sign they might wait a bit for more convection, even though we have a closed LLC.
0 likes
-
Caribwxgirl
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 287
- Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
- Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)
So what are the conditions ahead of 93L and what are the early thoughts on where is it likely to end up?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139594
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
00z Best Track.
AL, 93, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 138N, 230W, 30, 1008, LO
AL, 93, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 138N, 230W, 30, 1008, LO
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139594
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
Caribwxgirl wrote:So what are the conditions ahead of 93L and what are the early thoughts on where is it likely to end up?
Too early to tell a track as is 7 days away from the islands. There is some dry air in Central Atlantic that may stop development.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Caribwxgirl
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 287
- Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
- Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)
Ok thanks. I'm gonna keep a close watch over next 7 days then 
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests