ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

THe curved band of the sw and nw quads is pretty straight foward. very likely already a td.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[Gustywind]

Tracking Info For Invest 95L

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html


Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 07/6/13 7.7N 30.7W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 07/6/13 7.8N 32.6W 25 1009 Invest
18 GMT 07/6/13 7.9N 34.5W 25 1009 Invest

[Ntxw]

Pretty interesting now that we are firmly in phase 2 of the MJO a good wave across the MDR comes out of Africa (95L), the most favorable phase with linkage to the IO convection. This one should be interesting to watch.

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agree. This is like what 92L that was never declared a TD ? If this was what 94l was looking like in the gulf people would be pulling their hair out right now. Guess because its so far out no harm, no foul. Just sit back and wait and see what happens.

[Florida1118]

Vorticity is not very concentrated however

[TheStormExpert]

Since 2008 is an analog year, and had Hurricane Bertha which also formed well east of 40w, due south of the Cape Verde islands on July 3rd, '08. It makes the possibility seem more realistic. Just My Opinion!

[Aric Dunn]

i cant find the data for the hwrf though

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Charley like track.....but it also developes that ULL and rams it into NO....sort of fishy long range....but it is the upgraded CMC.

After last weeks horrible performance by the cmc showing back to back systems hitting the north gulf coast don't have to much faith in it right now.

[Gustywind]

Mentionned as a special feature...


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N39W TO A 1012 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.
EXCEPT FOR THE PORTION OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...VERY DRY AIR FROM A SAL OUTBREAK SPREADS OVER ITS
ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 9N. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 32W-36W ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW.

[Gustywind]

From NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

20130706.1715.95LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-79N-345W|

[SFLcane]

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z HWRF brings a minimal hurricane into PR:

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF small moderate TS in southern bahamas.

[SFLcane]

GFDL also in bahamas but does nada with it.

[Gustywind]

12Z HWRF brings a minimal hurricane into PR:

Cycloneye should not appreciate that. Hopefully we're a bit far away from reality and we have time to see what could pan's out from 95L.

[cycloneye]

Just before the sun sets in the Eastern Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak gives it's first T numbers.

06/1745 UTC 8.4N 34.7W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

[SFLcane]

Luis..

[cycloneye]

Yeah,thanks to both for posting the HWRF. But as we know,the models change every 6 hours. I would worry a lot if all the models point to PR.