EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[greenkat]

This is looking very well-organized for a 65-mph tropical storm. Wouldn't be surprised if Barbara was a hurricane by 1100 PDT this morning!

[galaxy401]

Still a 65 mph storm. No longer forecasting a hurricane.

[MGC]

NHC don't think it will regenerate in the BOC....lets hope they are right.......MGC

[JonathanBelles]

Barbara has made landfall. The weakening phase will begin soon. By this time tomorrow, we should be looking at a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche.

[Yellow Evan]

Barbara has made landfall. The weakening phase will begin soon. By this time tomorrow, we should be looking at a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche.

No TC update is at AFAIK, so it has officially not made landfall.

[HurricaneBelle]

Yeah, I'm looking at the floater photo from 1645Z (21 minutes old) and Barbara's core is still offshore, although not for much longer.

[Riptide]

Would of reached hurricane strength if it had an extra few hours over water. Very impressive system here.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible image

[Hurricaneman]

The eye of this says still offshore but will be onshore in a few hours

[Hurricane Jed]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 291751
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 94.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST OFFSHORE OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO. BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND A NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION AT A DECREASING
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BARBARA WILL
CROSS THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND
BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN OAXACA AND WESTERN CHIAPAS MEXICO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
OAXACA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS LIKELY RAISING WATER LEVELS BY 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[Hurricane Jed]

Barbara has made landfall. The weakening phase will begin soon. By this time tomorrow, we should be looking at a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche.

Not only has it not made landfall its become a hurricane too

[vbhoutex]

Barbara seems to be trying her hardest to survive the mountains of Mexico as she strengthens. Her forward speed has increased some also. Still appears to be too much dry air and shear ahead of her for her to make it to the BOC intact, but I sure will be watching her closely.

[AJC3]

Barbara has made landfall. The weakening phase will begin soon. By this time tomorrow, we should be looking at a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche.

Not only has it not made landfall its become a hurricane too

This is surprising, given the radar presentation, which clearly shows a well defined vortex of some sort moving completely onshore at 1630 UTC. I'm sure the 2 PM PDT TCDEP2 will explain the disparity between what radar and visible satellite showed between 1400 and 1700 UTC. Frankly, it's puzzling that if the LLC is still offshore as of 1800 UTC, and the vortex is tilted toward the SOUTH with height, that there would be anything running out ahead (north) of the LLC.

[Hurricaneman]

Barbara has made landfall. The weakening phase will begin soon. By this time tomorrow, we should be looking at a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche.

Not only has it not made landfall its become a hurricane too

This is surprising, given the radar presentation, which clearly shows a well defined vortex of some sort moving completely onshore at 1630 UTC.

The surface and mid levels are severely decoupled, this is one of the rare times that I disagree with the NHC with that the mid level is what you see on the satellite and the surface is shown on radar which is about 50 to 100 miles apart

[Kingarabian]

Barbara has made landfall. The weakening phase will begin soon. By this time tomorrow, we should be looking at a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche.

Not only has it not made landfall its become a hurricane too

This is surprising, given the radar presentation, which clearly shows a well defined vortex of some sort moving completely onshore at 1630 UTC. I'm sure the 2 PM PDT TCDEP2 will explain the disparity between what radar and visible satellite showed between 1400 and 1700 UTC. Frankly, it's puzzling that if the LLC is still offshore as of 1800 UTC, and the vortex is tilted toward the SOUTH with height, that there would be anything running out ahead (north) of the LLC.

So the window is open for it to strengthen further?

[Kingarabian]

UW_CIMSS has the center just off-shore.

Also, why didn't get Recon? Was there not enough time?

[MGC]

The shear over Barbara is not strong enough to cause the cyclone to decouple. It might be slightly tilted but Barbara looks to intensify up to landfall. From a weak low to a hurricane in a little over a day....not bad.......MGC

[CrazyC83]

29/1745 UTC 15.7N 94.2W T4.5/4.5 BARBARA -- East Pacific

Easy to see why it is a hurricane. That supports 75 kt.

[Hurricaneman]

either that or the radar thing was just some kind of anomaly and should be disreguarded

[Kingarabian]

Eye trying to clear out?