ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

RI is not currently happening.

Just slow and steady development

Also, worth noting that alternative definitions of RI use a much higher standard. Some require pressure falls of 1.75mb/hr for a 24 hour period and I believe this is the first definition used in peer reviewed literature

I agree. RI is overused way too much. This is average to slightly above average intensification rate.

[Sanibel]

Is Ingrid feeling that front over the SE US? Seems to be in a cut-off zone from steering currents.

[tailgater]

I'm a little surpised that they don't mention at least a partial eye forming but they didn't say thier wasn't either.

[Airboy]

Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 99° at 73 knots (From the E at ~ 83.9 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Dew Pt: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 76 knots (~ 87.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mp

[galaxy401]

It's moving away from Manuel so that should help Ingrid with less shear.

[HurricaneDREW92]

76kt FL winds. Should get us Hurricane Ingrid at 11.

WOW. Really?

[brunota2003]

RI is not currently happening.

Just slow and steady development

Also, worth noting that alternative definitions of RI use a much higher standard. Some require pressure falls of 1.75mb/hr for a 24 hour period and I believe this is the first definition used in peer reviewed literature

In some of the NHC literature, I didn't see anything about pressure drops. Just RI starts at a 30 knot increase in wind speed in 24 hours or less. Anything above that is just "icing on the cake".

[ndale]

I usually lurk on the tropics thread and don't post much because I am an amatuer and have so much to learn about tropical weather. So I have an amatuer question. I know the ridge over Tx is predicted by the models to remain steady thru next week. Are the models accurate when predicting movement of these ridges are do they sometimes move or break down before they are predicted to.

[CrazyC83]

76 kt FL = 61 kt at the surface with that flight level.

[RL3AO]

76 kt FL = 61 kt at the surface with that flight level.

But with T4.0 from SAB and T4.0 previously from NHC, I'm guessing it will be enough to go 65kt.

[Time_Zone]

I respect your opinion but with all due respect I don't really consider a 25KT increase in 24 or so hours to be "slow and steady development" considering the threshold for RI is 30 KTS in 24.

[Alyono]

I respect your opinion but with all due respect I don't really consider a 25KT increase in 24 or so hours to be "slow and steady development" considering the threshold for RI is 30 KTS in 24.

The 30 KT is NOT the classical definition. It is a proxy used in operations since ops focuses on wind and not pressure

RI is something very rare... and EI is even rarer

[RL3AO]

RI is not currently happening.

Just slow and steady development

Also, worth noting that alternative definitions of RI use a much higher standard. Some require pressure falls of 1.75mb/hr for a 24 hour period and I believe this is the first definition used in peer reviewed literature

In some of the NHC literature, I didn't see anything about pressure drops. Just RI starts at a 30 knot increase in wind speed in 24 hours or less. Anything above that is just "icing on the cake".

SHIPS uses wind increase for its RI metric, but most sources I've seen use a pressure drop over a period of 6, 12, and/or 24 hours. For example, a T5.0 to T6.0 is a 25 knot increase. A T# increase of one over 24 hours is considered a standard development rate. Pressure is much cleaner and useful for measuring RI.

[Alyono]

76 KT still yields a TS. Does justify the 60 KT winds, though

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They exited in the north quadrant. Given the storm's motion, winds might have been a little higher in the NE to E had they gone that way.

[hurricanes1234]

I respect your opinion but with all due respect I don't really consider a 25KT increase in 24 or so hours to be "slow and steady development" considering the threshold for RI is 30 KTS in 24.

Yes, I most certainly agree that it's on the verge of rapid deepening. Just 24 hours ago, this was barely a storm, and now, it's probably a hurricane pending an upgrade at 10:00 CDT.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed, Recon overrides satellite, and that supports a 60 kt intensity.

[RL3AO]

At 12z yesterday this was a 1000mb storm. At 12z today, it was at 989mb. Yes, the winds have gone up 25 knots, but an 11mb drop in 24 hours is NOT rapid intensification. I agree with Alyono here.

[Alyono]

pressure is falling at a rate of ~ .5 mb/hr

Well short of the RI threshold

[jinftl]

70 mph TS at 11am

From Discussion:

CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME.