ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

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ozonepete
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Re:

#641 Postby ozonepete » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:09 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:just curious does anyone have an opinion on why ingrid is split in to two different storm complexes?


They often have 2 or 3 separate centers from TD strength all the way up to the strong TS category. It's because the vorticity (quite simply the tendency to spin in a circular direction) in weak systems often splits into a few separate centers that spin around each other, combine, separate, and recombine until the most stable formation develops. when there's 2 separate, or somewhat separate, centers they can each cause a convective burst of their own.
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#642 Postby Time_Zone » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:09 pm

Pretty big blowup. Cloud tops are very, very cold.
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#643 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:13 pm

so ozone even at this point you could get center relocations?
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Re: Re:

#644 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:14 pm

This is what allowed Nate in 2011 to become a hurricane briefly despite dry air and shear, correct?


Nate was forecast to reach category 1 hurricane strength from the first NHC Discussion. Dry air was forecast to be the only inhibiting factor for the first few days, and low shear in the beginning slowed down the dry air intrusion. It wasn't until later on in Nate's forecast that shear, dry air, and upwelling began to take it's toll.

Code: Select all

NATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING
FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.
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#645 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:16 pm

The GFS increases shear over Ingrid tomorrow as the TS Manuel intensifies. Something to watch out for.
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Re:

#646 Postby ozonepete » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:20 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:so ozone even at this point you could get center relocations?


Yeah. I've seen it all the way up to about this intensity, 60 mph or so, especially when shear is playing with it. It's not exactly center relocations, just the main vorticity getting tilted and buckling to the point that it briefly splits and then reforms, but usually so briefly and so close to where it started that you couldn't call it a center relocation. But when it happens during shear a convective burst can get moved off of the main center at the same time a new burst is firing up quickly. That's when you can see a gap between the two bursts.
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Re:

#647 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:22 pm

Interesting to see if Manuel and Ingrid impact each other in terms of steering and intensity - if so, how?

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:The GFS increases shear over Ingrid tomorrow as the TS Manuel intensifies. Something to watch out for.
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#648 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:27 pm

thanks ozone makes perfect sense.....shear or not she looks to be firing nicely.
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#649 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:43 pm

saved radar loop:

Image
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#650 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:48 pm

dont see any movement on that radar....man shes close to the coast.
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#651 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:56 pm

huge blow up...she looks primed.
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#652 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 14, 2013 1:30 am

TXNT23 KNES 140612
TCSNTL

A. 10L (INGRID)

B. 14/0545Z

C. 19.6N

D. 95.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS LOCATED BENEATH LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION. 6/10
BANDING RESULTS IN A DT=3.0 HOWEVER THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. MET AND PT
ARE ALSO 3.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/0145Z 19.5N 95.2W SSMIS
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#653 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Sep 14, 2013 1:43 am

Looks like Ingrid and Manuel are going to have a rendezvous in old Mexico.
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Audrey (1957), Carla (1961), Hilda (1964), Betsy (1965), Edith (1971), Carmen (1974), Danny (1985), Juan (1985), Andrew (1992), Lili (2002), Rita (2005), Gustav (2008), Ike (2008), and stuck in the eye of Iniki (1992) while vacationing in Kauai.

Not an official forecast by any means.
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#654 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 14, 2013 1:47 am

For undergoing such westerly shear there seems to be a pretty wide area of storms on the western side of the circulation showing up on radar.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#655 Postby beoumont » Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:55 am

Cherry donut with sprinkles on top:

Image
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#656 Postby Airboy » Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:03 am

What, if any, effect would a strong the predicted storm have on the track? Would a stronger storm take it a bit more N? With this trend it looks like it will be a hurricane already today.



Edit:

Time: 10:24:00Z
Coordinates: 19.7167N 94.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.4 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,081 meters (~ 10,108 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 995.6 mb (~ 29.40 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 240° at 60 knots (From the WSW at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 10.3°C* (~ 50.5°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 43 knots (~ 49.4 mph
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#657 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:44 am

Looks like it is pulling itself together


Image
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#658 Postby TexWx » Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:06 am

Looks to be moving/drifting northward now.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#659 Postby Airboy » Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:14 am

TexWx wrote:Looks to be moving/drifting northward now.



Yes, according to recon it moving NE, and strengthening pretty fast for the last hours.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#660 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:26 am

Air Force OB 17:

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
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