ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

Ingrid's small size could allow it to become a hurricane and possibly as early as tonight or tomorrow.

Maybe tomorrow, if it becomes a hurricane tonight, I would dubb it a special term called rapid deepening.

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[HurricaneDREW92]

Maybe an Illusion but it appears that it's going NE? Also went from 30kts - 50kts in 15hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

That Special Advisory was a bit surprising, I guess they wanted to upgrade to a Hurricane Watch right away. It's the first hurricane-level land alert since Sandy?

No it's not, for TS Chantal there was a Hurricane Watch for SE Dominican Republic.

[TheStormExpert]

I think unless the structure of this storm collapses it might can get stronger than 75mph.



The posts in this forum are NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm thinking if it spends 3 days over water, that may be very conservative still...a major hurricane may not be out of the question.

The way this season has been so far with with even Hurricane Humberto not even managing to become a Cat.2 like once predicted, I find the forecast to be not all that conservative ATM.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Maybe an Illusion but it appears that it's going NE? Also went from 30kts - 50kts in 15hrs.

Not an illusion. Recon supports a track towards the northeast.

[vbhoutex]

I think unless the structure of this storm collapses it might can get stronger than 75mph.


I'm thinking if it spends 3 days over water, that may be very conservative still...a major hurricane may not be out of the question.

It wouldn't surprise me to get at least a Category 2 before landfall if not stronger like you say... but then again it is 2013 so you never really can tell.

I don't see that happening unless Ingrid starts actually moving at a speed that is able to get her away from upwelling which should be occurring soon if it isn't already. Even with the current increase in strength I don't see how she could get a lot stronger unless she starts moving and moves further from the coast. JMHO.

[TheStormExpert]

Bastardi's Cat2 forecast isnt looking so out of touch now. (The curse of the 'I' storm )

I remember everyone going on about the "I"-jinx (especially The Weather Channel) before Isaac from last year even formed. It affected many areas from the Lesser Antilles to Louisiana. Out west here in Palm Beach County there was major flooding for days and weeks after the storm passed.

[Rgv20]

Ingrid looking really good!



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[vbhoutex]

Maybe an Illusion but it appears that it's going NE? Also went from 30kts - 50kts in 15hrs.

Not an illusion. Recon supports a track towards the northeast.

If this is not an illusion and if this "trend" continues we may have a whole new ball game. And yes I do realize what I just said above. THIS COULD GET REAL INTERESTING!!

[Hammy]

The way this season has been so far with with even Hurricane Humberto not even managing to become a Cat.2 like once predicted, I find the forecast to be not all that conservative ATM.

Storms in the MDR tended to consistently be over-forecast, while storms in the BoC and Gulf were consistently under-forecast, and Ingrid has strengthened from 35 to 60 in little over 12 hours, whereas Ingrid's current intensity wasn't initially forecast until 96 hours. I would say 75mph may very well be a conservative forecast with that history.

[TheStormExpert]

Sorry if i'm posting a lot, but looking at the latest AVN Satellite loop of the W. Atlantic if it wasn't for TS Manuel in the East Pacific this thing might have already been a minimal hurricane. This thing may easily ramp up especially knowing where it is located, but you never know it's the 2013 hurricane season!

[Portastorm]

Maybe an Illusion but it appears that it's going NE? Also went from 30kts - 50kts in 15hrs.

Not an illusion. Recon supports a track towards the northeast.

If this is not an illusion and if this "trend" continues we may have a whole new ball game. And yes I do realize what I just said above. THIS COULD GET REAL INTERESTING!!

Easy big fella ... E-A-S-Y ... the storm was supposed to be doing this per the modeling and forecasts. I wouldn't be boarding up those windows on the Texas Gulf Coast just yet.

[galaxy401]

but you never know it's the 2013 hurricane season!

Yes we get it! I have been seeing this hundreds of times now!

If there happens to be casualties in Mexico then which system will be blamed for it? Ingrid or Manuel?

[ozonepete]

but you never know it's the 2013 hurricane season!

Yes we get it! I have been seeing this hundreds of times now!

If there happens to be casualties in Mexico then which system will be blamed for it? Ingrid or Manuel?

In the post-mortem it will be fairly easy to separate it into 3 categories: Ingrid, Manuel and their overlap. But IMHO Manuel will not contribute much to the rains in eastern Mexico. Looks like it will move inland by tomorrow evening and its moisture/rains will stay mostly on the western side of those really high mountains in between the 2 storms.

[ozonepete]

Ingrid looking really good!

http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/3951/of2c.jpg

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Impressive for a storm so close to land. It often surprises me how strong TCs get down there even when close to land. It's likely due to the very warm water and the shape of the BOC. The wind field tends to get forced into a circular pattern due to the curvature of the land with its blocking mountains and of course a circular shape is more symmetrical and thus allows for the vorticity to tighten up.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm writing my tropical research paper on this topic this semester ozonepete!
Good timing right?

[Hammy]

Looks like the level of shear may be very slightly decreasing based on CIMSS chart.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

It's likely due to the very warm water and the shape of the BOC. The wind field tends to get forced into a circular pattern due to the curvature of the land with its blocking mountains and of course a circular shape is more symmetrical and thus allows for the vorticity to tighten up.

This is what allowed Nate in 2011 to become a hurricane briefly despite dry air and shear, correct?

[wxman57]

Easy big fella ... E-A-S-Y ... the storm was supposed to be doing this per the modeling and forecasts. I wouldn't be boarding up those windows on the Texas Gulf Coast just yet.

Exactly what I was going to say. The majority of the models had Ingrid moving NNE as the upper low to its NW shifts a bit more to its west tonight. So it's behaving just as forecast. Once the upper low weakens/dissipates and the ridge rebuilds to its north it will take a westerly turn, probably moving inland just north of Tampico. I see the NHC finally came around and is forecasting Ingrid to become a hurricane. Question is, how strong? Cat 2 or 3?

[SeGaBob]

I don't live anywhere near Texas but I really hope they can get some rain out of this system.

[Time_Zone]

Easy big fella ... E-A-S-Y ... the storm was supposed to be doing this per the modeling and forecasts. I wouldn't be boarding up those windows on the Texas Gulf Coast just yet.

Exactly what I was going to say. The majority of the models had Ingrid moving NNE as the upper low to its NW shifts a bit more to its west tonight. So it's behaving just as forecast. Once the upper low weakens/dissipates and the ridge rebuilds to its north it will take a westerly turn, probably moving inland just north of Tampico. I see the NHC finally came around and is forecasting Ingrid to become a hurricane. Question is, how strong? Cat 2 or 3?

Wow you really think this could make a run at major status? That would be an absolute disaster.