ATL: INGRID - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#61 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:58 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:i think stronger system would take a more northern track



agree...and also where the LLC sets up..will be key..
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#62 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:09 pm

Impressive Moisture Content by 93L in 126hrs forecast by the 0zHWRF Basin Scale :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#63 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:14 pm

:uarrow: that looks very LARGE.... :eek: NAVGEM was showing something similiar in size....Ike-ish right there...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#64 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:22 pm

Here's the Euro vorticity plot just before landfall.

Image

Compared to the 0Z run at 168, where the best vorticity was displayed inland.

Image

So all in all the Euro has not moved the vorticity much further north, it just changed the angle.

Both images from http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewalltropatl.html
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#65 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:35 pm

Based on what the different Models are showing, Veracruz to Brownsville are likely targets. Maybe closer to Tampico.
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#66 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:51 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Based on what the different Models are showing, Veracruz to Brownsville are likely targets. Maybe closer to Tampico.


For now ... yes. Of course, this is subject to change as we don't even have a defined and clear center of circulation and may not for days.
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#67 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:59 pm

I don't think the models are done moving just yet. Since I am a betting man I would say SW LA to Tampico needs to watch closely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#68 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:04 pm

Rock has left #TeamEURO, and you wont be welcomed back. :lol:
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#69 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:18 pm

We could use the moisture here too...don't hog it all Texas!
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Re: Re:

#70 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:36 pm

Portastorm wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Based on what the different Models are showing, Veracruz to Brownsville are likely targets. Maybe closer to Tampico.


For now ... yes. Of course, this is subject to change as we don't even have a defined and clear center of circulation and may not for days.


I totally agree with Porta here. We have no defined center and goodness knows when we will. For that fact alone, everything is a crap shoot.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#71 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:36 pm

12Z FIM9- mid Texas coast...very large system...tracks along the coast also just inland.
12Z FIM8- real close to Freeport...very large system....tracks along the coast also.

http://fim.noaa.gov/
Last edited by Portastorm on Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed link to use proper URL commands
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#72 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:43 pm

Image rock?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#73 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:50 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z FIM9- mid Texas coast...very large system...tracks along the coast also just inland.
12Z FIM8- real close to Freeport...very large system....tracks along the coast also.

http://fim.noaa.gov/


For the less FIM educated crowd (of which I am a member), here's a little blurb about it on the Fount of All Knowledge (Wikipedia):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow-following,_finite-volume_Icosahedral_Model
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#74 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:53 pm

18zGFS looks like it has 93L as a TD in the BOC come Friday Morning..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#75 Postby Sambucol » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:55 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z FIM9- mid Texas coast...very large system...tracks along the coast also just inland.
12Z FIM8- real close to Freeport...very large system....tracks along the coast also.

http://fim.noaa.gov/

What's the timeframe of landfall on that run?
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#76 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:56 pm

That's buried way down in the BOC. I don't see how it will make that much progress Northward.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#77 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:57 pm

FIM8 at 132 hours:

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FIM9 at 132 hours:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#78 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:59 pm

18z GFS? GFS is the most inconsistent piece of you know what
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#79 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 5:00 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:18z GFS? GFS is the most inconsistent piece of you know what


So in your mind, the Euro is the best? Just asking. Not trying to flame model wars ( I swear I am behaving Porta...LOL)
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#80 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 10, 2013 5:01 pm

Looks like 18z will bury in BOC, actually moved WSW at 102 hrs.
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