ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[ninel conde]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRY
AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY
UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

"very unfavorable" yikes.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It was deactivated three minutes after it was released.

Edit: They updated instead as being 98L instead.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 902013.ren

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309051230
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013090512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 138N, 314W, 20, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 250, 80, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

ATCF inicially had 90L for this area but changed to 98L which was when it began.

AL, 98, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 138N, 313W, 20, 1012, LO

[RL3AO]

90L merged into 98L thread.

[Gustywind]

ATCF inicially had 90L for this area but changed to 98L which was when it began.

AL, 98, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 138N, 313W, 20, 1012, LO

Thanks for that clarification

[adam0983]

Is this an active Invest?

[Hurricaneman]

Is this an active Invest?

Yep, and could become a storm in its own right if it can get more convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[adam0983]

Lets hope it doesn't become anything.

[adam0983]

I am hoping the Atlantic stays quiet for the next 3 weeks. I am going on a cruise the week of sept 14 and got my fingers crossed it will stay quiet. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[ninel conde]

at least conditions wont become monumentally unfavorable in a few days, they will just be very unfavorable.

[Blown Away]

Looking like the 12z GFS wants to start developing 98L just east of the NE Caribbean...

[tolakram]

Current Shear (tendency, actual shear represented by the colors)



12Z shear loop

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090512/gfs_shear_atltropics.html

Maybe a few days of favorable conditions?

[Extratropical94]

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRY
AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY
UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[Riptide]

Invest 98L has a pretty sharp wave axis, 10% seems conservative.

[gatorcane]

Latest saved VIS GIF...nothing organized but we do need to watch these systems to see if they can find some more favorable conditions further west (e.g. Pouch 25L that spawned Gabrielle):

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/32W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN
28W AND 35W. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE
TO DRY AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
VERY UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS.

[hurricanes1234]

This is the theme of the 2013 season, nearly all waves must bite the dust.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

This is the theme of the 2013 season, nearly all waves must bite the dust.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Though conditions are "very unfavorable" according to the NHC I have a feeling this one will need to be closely watched because it looks like a wave that will get very far west according to the GFS and ECMWF. Better conditions could lie ahead down the road plus both models are showing the possibility of the Bermuda High building back int the long-range, not to mention it does have climatology on its side with climatological peak of Sept 10th approaching...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CourierPR]

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi tweeted that he thinks 98L will be a player down the road.

[MGC]

JB thinks everything will be a player. The way things have been going this season we'll be lucky to get a couple of drops of rain out of this. Looks pretty dry out in the central Atlantic.....MGC