CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Wow. It hasn't even passed an hour since the 5 o clock outlook..

[cycloneye]

EP, 06, 2013072500, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1214W, 30, 1005, TD

[Kingarabian]

They're going to be conservative with it despite it having Tropical storm winds .

[CrazyC83]

25/0000 UTC 14.8N 121.2W T2.0/2.0 98E

[Yellow Evan]

The advisory should be out soon. I still think they will go with a 55 knt peak.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN
TRACKING FOR A FEW DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS
FINALLY DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CIRCULAR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER
SUGGESTING AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER... IT IS TOO LATE FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE REACHING
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS JUST BEGUN
TO CONSOLIDATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST SINCE
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE WESTWARD STEERING IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.9N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.5N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 20.0N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 21.0N 147.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

I think we could very well see a TS within 6 hours. Looks very neat right now.

[Kingarabian]

No ADT analysis .

[Yellow Evan]

I am going to bed now (I live in NV so it's 11:15 but I don't like staying up late), I expect to have a TS on our hands when I wake up.

[Extratropical94]

I am going to bed now (I live in NV so it's 11:15 but I don't like staying up late), I expect to have a TS on our hands when I wake up.

You could be right.
06Z Best track has Flossie:

EP, 06, 2013072506, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1232W, 35, 1004, TS, ..., FLOSSIE

[Extratropical94]

Here we go:

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 123.9W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 250838
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
200 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ACCORDINGLY...THE LASTEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NUDGED
UPWARD TO 2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...A RECENT
ASCAT PASS SHOWED RELIABLE WINDS AROUND 35 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.
CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A
LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
WATERS THAT ARE COOLER THAN 26C ON FRIDAY. THESE LESS FAVORABLE
OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND SOME
INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES GENERALLY NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 15.5N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.9N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.4N 129.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 17.3N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 18.0N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 19.6N 141.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 20.5N 146.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 21.0N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[senorpepr]

Quick video update on Tropical Storms Flossie and Dorian, as well as other interests worldwide. Pretty quiet forecast for Flossie as she marches across the EPAC. Stable air and cooler waters should kill off the cyclone before arriving to Hawaii, but there is a possibility of increased showers and gusty winds for the islands.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtZiX3SN7x8[/youtube]

[TheStormExpert]

Wonder if Flossie will try and hit the Hawaiian islands this time. Flossie from 2007 managed to become a 140mph hurricane but weakened to a Cat.1 as it went to the south of the islands.

[Extratropical94]

12Z Best Track is up to 40 knots and down to 1003 mb.

EP, 06, 2013072512, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1248W, 40, 1003, TS

[Extratropical94]

12z best track wind speed has been revised to 35 knots.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
800 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013

SINCE THE BIG BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...THE STRUCTURE
OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. IN FACT...
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT
FLOSSIE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS AND ADVERSE SHEAR MOST LIKELY WILL RESULT
IN WEAKENING THEREAFTER...AND FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.

MICROWAVE DATA AROUND 1200 UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS A LITTLE
BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE OVERALL
MOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. FLOSSIE IS FULLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING FLOSSIE
ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A
WEAKER FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.3N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.5N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.2N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 137.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 20.0N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 20.5N 154.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Senobia]

Wonder if Flossie will try and hit the Hawaiian islands this time. Flossie from 2007 managed to become a 140mph hurricane but weakened to a Cat.1 as it went to the south of the islands.

Yes - any thoughts on this? My daughter recently moved to Kaneohe on Oahu and she's never been there in a storm so doesn't know what to expect. Needless to say I'm worried because I've never paid attention to how storms affect Hawaii so I have nothing to compare this to.

[jaguarjace]

Hurricane Flossie of 2007

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_rxu0fJ2h8[/youtube]

Just for informative purposes.

[Yellow Evan]

Wonder if Flossie will try and hit the Hawaiian islands this time. Flossie from 2007 managed to become a 140mph hurricane but weakened to a Cat.1 as it went to the south of the islands.

Yes - any thoughts on this? My daughter recently moved to Kaneohe on Oahu and she's never been there in a storm so doesn't know what to expect. Needless to say I'm worried because I've never paid attention to how storms affect Hawaii so I have nothing to compare this to.

Usually storms coming from the west, you just just wind and rain with minor flooding. Good example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... %282006%29

[Yellow Evan]

Don't tell me that Flossie is doing what some early season ATL storms do and randomly deciding to lose its circulation.