ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Nimbus]

These early season storms almost always become naked swirls due to the SAL, but they due tend to moisten up the ITCZ when they puff convection. With the budget Sequester putting pressure on all the government agencies I can't see the NHC upgrading this to a TD even if it meets the criteria ATM. Track will be weak and west if it fizzles per my forecast so maybe western GOM action later.

[cycloneye]

Once a TD is classified (If it develops) then the models will have a better feed to the runs.

[floridasun78]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013070612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_38.png

is south of Cuba at 117

it very weak under cuba dont see any thing under cuba

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013070612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_38.png

is south of Cuba at 117

it very weak under cuba dont see any thing under cuba

look at the open isobar under Cuba...that is what is left of it....wave under the ridge..I would not put too much stock in the GFS that far out yet. I dont think it initialized that great to start with, IMO

[rockyman]

On the 12z GFS, the system pulls itself back together (a little) in the southeastern Gulf, and makes "landfall" near New Orleans:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... b&hour=228

[jinftl]

agree - we are not in any way in Cape Verde season - this would be a true outlier in development this early so far east....

man this looks really really good for the 1st week of July...

[cycloneye]

Be aware is the CMC but it develops 95L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[mcheer23]

CMC makes a hard north turn makes landfall near Tampa

[cycloneye]

NHC just updated todays TCPOD and has added a possible mission for next Tuesday morning.

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EDT SAT 06 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-036 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS....................................AD DED.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13.3N 57.3W FOR 09/1200Z.

[ROCK]

Charley like track.....but it also developes that ULL and rams it into NO....sort of fishy long range....but it is the upgraded CMC.

[Florida1118]

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

[cycloneye]

18z Models track more south.

[jinftl]

Here we go...CV season about a month early...darn those above normal SSTs in the eastern atlantic...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

[SFLcane]

Here we go! SAL problem for now but more favorable conditions await.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hmmm. Recon not until Tuesday? Grrr! Boring times until then...

[cycloneye]

Hmmm. Recon not until Tuesday? Grrr! Boring times until then...

Is too far away to have a plane go east of 40W.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Even from an Antilles base?

[Gustywind]

18z Model guidance.

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1720 UTC SAT JUL 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130706 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130706 1800 130707 0600 130707 1800 130708 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.9N 34.5W 8.5N 38.1W 9.6N 42.5W 11.2N 47.5W
BAMD 7.9N 34.5W 8.4N 37.7W 9.3N 41.2W 10.6N 44.8W
BAMM 7.9N 34.5W 8.3N 38.3W 9.3N 42.5W 10.6N 46.8W
LBAR 7.9N 34.5W 8.2N 38.2W 9.2N 42.5W 10.3N 47.0W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130708 1800 130709 1800 130710 1800 130711 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 52.7W 17.5N 63.0W 21.5N 71.6W 25.1N 76.6W
BAMD 12.1N 48.4W 14.9N 55.0W 16.4N 59.5W 15.7N 62.5W
BAMM 12.4N 51.3W 16.1N 59.8W 19.8N 66.4W 22.1N 69.9W
LBAR 11.9N 51.6W 15.5N 59.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.9N LONCUR = 34.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 7.7N LONM12 = 31.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 7.6N LONM24 = 27.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Even from an Antilles base?

Even from Barbados.

[jinftl]

To give this some perspective - if it does develop, the NHC graphic below shows the # and location of storms that have formed during the July 1 - July 10 over the 1851-2009 period - 3 storms east of 40W





And for the July 11 - July 20 period over the 1851-2009 period - 0 storms east of 40W