ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[ronjon]

Dry air and shear have impacted 91L over night. However, the broad low is evident on VIS SAT spining north of the Yucatan. It isn't going anywhere anytime soon, so we'll just have to wait and watch over the next few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[wxman57]

No sign of a surface circulation in the obs across the region. Convection remains quite disorganized. I'd still give it a 50% shot of becoming a TD Wed/Thu before it tracks across the FL peninsula. No wind threat, just rainfall.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2013060312, , BEST, 0, 217N, 892W, 20, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[adam0983]

What are the chances right now that Invest 91L makes it to a tropical depression and the chances it turns into a Tropical Storm? When do you think the conditions will be the worst for South Florida?

[Hurricane Andrew]

No sign of a surface circulation in the obs across the region. Convection remains quite disorganized. I'd still give it a 50% shot of becoming a TD Wed/Thu before it tracks across the FL peninsula. No wind threat, just rainfall.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My thought in chat last night was 40%. Even if it doesn't develop, heavy rain, thunderstorms, and possible gusty winds are likely over SFL.

[adam0983]

The rainfall will be beneficial for South Florida. Lets hope all this turns out to be is a rain maker.

[Evil Jeremy]

I highly doubt this becomes a TS. I'd put that at 10 percent. Either way, worst of the rain should be Wed - Fri, though it will be bad all week.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,SHIP has a little bit more intensity.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC MON JUN 3 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912013) 20130603 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130603 1200 130604 0000 130604 1200 130605 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 89.2W 22.4N 90.0W 22.8N 91.1W 23.1N 92.0W
BAMD 21.7N 89.2W 22.3N 89.3W 22.8N 89.4W 23.5N 89.7W
BAMM 21.7N 89.2W 22.2N 89.8W 22.4N 90.6W 22.7N 91.5W
LBAR 21.7N 89.2W 22.6N 89.3W 23.8N 89.6W 25.2N 89.7W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130605 1200 130606 1200 130607 1200 130608 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 93.1W 22.1N 94.8W 21.5N 96.2W 21.6N 98.2W
BAMD 23.9N 90.0W 24.6N 90.4W 26.8N 88.5W 32.8N 81.3W
BAMM 22.6N 92.3W 21.8N 94.0W 21.3N 95.4W 21.5N 96.7W
LBAR 26.6N 89.3W 29.5N 86.8W 34.1N 80.9W 41.2N 70.8W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.7N LONCUR = 89.2W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 88.8W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 20.3N LONM24 = 88.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 180NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[NDG]

Looking at the HR vis sat loop this morning, there might be a better surface COC trying to get going near 23N and 88.8W, a little north and east from the latest best estimated location by the NHC.
But still very broad over all. The mid level vorticity is east of my estimated center because of the shear.

[Evil Jeremy]

The rainfall will be beneficial for South Florida. Lets hope all this turns out to be is a rain maker.

Not all of SFL need more rain. The southern most counties are 2-3 inches above average, and SFL as a whole is about .5 an inch above average with rain.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... to-date%29

[GCANE]

Been firing a cold-topped MCS along the east Yucatan coast, SW of Cozumel this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Could help to relax shear somewhat this afternoon in the area due to mid-tropospheric latent heating.

Could also see more afternoon storms fire up.

CAPE forecasted to be 2000 to 3000 feeding into the system from the south-easterly winds.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... 925_MB.png

[adam0983]

I think this can be a Tropical Depression by tomorrow morning? Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Alyono]

SHIPS totally meaningless as it follows the BAMM prior to an official track being generated. This is not heading west like the BAMM says

[tolakram]

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... te=ir1.pal

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&numframes=5&palette=ir1.pal

You can see the rotation, but everything sheared off to the east.

[wxman57]

I think this can be a Tropical Depression by tomorrow morning? Just an opinion not a forecast.

I'm not seeing any significant rotation or any sign of a low-level circulation. Convection remains quite disorganized. While it still might be possible it could become a TD tomorrow, most likely that would have to wait for another 2-3 days.

[GCANE]

23N 90.5W looks interesting

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

MCS continues to walk north along the coast with some overshooting tops.

[cycloneye]

First mission tentative for Tuesday Afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT MON 03 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA---GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
C. 04/1730Z
D. 24.0N 88.5W
E. 04/1845Z TO 04/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
NEAR 24.5N 88.5W AT 05/1800Z.

[MGC]

Long shot for this to develop with all the dry air moving in and the shear is a screaming......MGC

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= CSU relesased their June forecast. Those who may want to read it go here.

[caneman]

I wouldn't say it is a long shot. This is a typical June set up. We've experienced many systems (Tampa Bay area) this time of year with the same set up and location. A 40 - 60 mph sheared rain maker is what you would expect.