ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

12Z runs should be out soon..maybe that will help...kudos to the CMC as far as intensity in the short term..picked it up well..

[Hurricaneman]

Is this heading towards any bouys, because if so we could get a more accurate depiction of strength because of its small size

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[thundercam96]

Holy crap,!!!!! He is lookin good this morning. I am late to the party as always. Is it possible that he gets stronger over cooler waters? Has that ever happened before?

in this mornings discussion from the nhc they stated the inflow from the south(where the warm moisture is) could offset the effects of the cooler sst's.

[northjaxpro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-vis-short.html
~~~~~~~~~~
Looks very small and fragile to me. If conditions do become hostile which would be normal for July, I think it has very little chance to survive.

You Have something against small storms ?

Some of my favorite storms were small

For me, Humberto was one small but potent one, the fastest intensifying tropical cyclone ever in the Atlantic Basin before landfall. I am still amazed by that storm even today.

[AtlanticWind]

Is this heading towards any bouys, because if so we could get a more accurate depiction of strength because of its small size

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

bouy13008 Is not far away maybe a day or so

[Janie2006]

Looks like we have plenty of....pictures of Dorian Gray.

I'm more interested in shear and dry air ahead of this system than I am SSTs, honestly.

[galaxy401]

NHC didn't mention the eye like feature in their discussion. I wonder if they think it's just a dry slot or something.

[TheStormExpert]

And to think just in the past 2 weeks some people on here (including me) were thinking things were looking bad for an active season. I know that you can not assume how active a season might be by how active June and July are but at the moment we are on pace with last year minus a hurricane though (Hurricane Chris). My original predictions were that July could see 2-3 storms maybe 1 hurricane at the end of the month.

[northjaxpro]

Unfortunately, if today is any indication, with Dorian and now Invest 99L, this is shaping up to be a very active season folks.

[Hurricaneman]

NHC didn't mention the eye like feature in their discussion. I wonder if they think it's just a dry slot or something.

its probably what they think, but if it persists they may say an eye is forming at the next advisory and up the strength but it could also dissipate and indeed be proven to be a dry slot

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Steve H.]

Pictures of Dorian Gray..ahh..I remember that. This Dorian reminds of yet another "D" , Danielle. Small compact hurricane, but she got knocked out in the Atlantic before she could bother anyone I believe.

[Riptide]

12Z runs should be out soon..maybe that will help...kudos to the CMC as far as intensity in the short term..picked it up well..

12z GFS really takes Dorian to town in regards to intensity compared to previous runs. Seems to not be an illusion in regards to its staying power.

[thetruesms]

06Z NAVGEM.....uh FL you need to pay attention to Dorian.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

It's dangerous to go alone - take this!
<NAVGEM gives Dorian special land-avoiding abilities>

[Hurricaneman]

I'm getting a feeling this will need to be watched next week in Florida for it may not weaken much after all if the trend of the GFS continues

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[AtlanticWind]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... _thick.gif

GFS much stronger in 5 days (than previous runs)

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS 12Z stronger and having a more southern track than the previous run

[Riptide]

The overall synoptic pattern in the longer ranges does not really support a complete recurve with the introduction of a +NAO, may continue westward or start to recurve and turn back west. Though, the pattern of low pressures along the East Coast looks to continue and things could change in the next week.

In this pattern, the Bermuda high moves farther south and becomes suppressive but if Dorian is already far enough west he could still recurve very sharply if there is a cold front present. Timing and forward speed appear to be key.

[supercane4867]

GFS on steroids

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_51.png

[Steve H.]

He could also end up going through the Florida Straits and into the GOM with the strength of that ridge. Seems to be booking along quite quickly now.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

Here's the link to the 12Z run of the GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs_area_param ... a=atlantic