ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanehunter69]

taking forever and its sept 03.

The longer it takes to consolidate, the farther west it gets. I'd hate to see it get to the NW Caribbean?

[floridasun78]

will their drop PERCENT at 2pm it look like getting weaker?

[gatorcane]

Animated VIS GIF. It appears that this invest is finally on the move again...

At 1200 UTC, 03 September 2013, LOW INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.8°N and 61.7°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 295 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[Dave C]

naked swirl at 14n 63w on that loop

[Sanibel]

Spent vortex. It might refire further west but this looks like another 2013 victim. This is why I don't follow the models.

[SeGaBob]

I know anything is possible but current computer models don't favor a hit on the East Coast do they?

[floridasun78]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031442
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 16.8N 65.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[adam0983]

The atmosphere conditions are just way too harsh for Invest 97L to develop. I think this storm has a 10 percent chance of development. Just an Opinion not a forecast.

[cycloneye]

The low is gone, accordingly with 8am TWD.

THE LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W.

They will mention a low pressure at 2 PM TWD as it was added at 12z analysis.

[cycloneye]

No Air Force Recon today

But Global Hawk is flying right now. http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 04/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
       C. 04/1700Z
       D. 16.8N 65.5W
       E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. FIX MISSION AT 05/1800Z NEAR 19.5N 68.5W IF SYSTEM   
          DEVELOPS.
   
    3. REMARKS: THE INVEST FOR THIS AREA TODAY AT 03/2100Z
       WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1100Z.


    4. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
       MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
       A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
       B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-LEEWARD ISLANDS
       C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1500Z, 04 SEP
       D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
       E. IP: 1900Z, 04 SEP; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
       F. EP:  1000Z, 4 SEPT; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
       G. ON-STATION DURATION:  15H 00M
       H. ETA WFF: 1500Z, 05 SEPT
       I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 84
       J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
       K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF CIRCULATION
          IN BOX BOUNDED BY 22.8N 67.5W, 17.0N 67.6W,
          14.8N 55.3W AND 22.8N 55.3W
       L. COMMENT: NA871 LANDING WFF AT 1100Z, 4 SEP
       M. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 1500Z, 5 SEP


[floridasun78]

The low is gone, accordingly with 8am TWD.

THE LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W.

They will mention a low pressure at 2 PM TWD as it was added at 12z analysis.

put already low with area

[NDG]

naked swirl at 14n 63w on that loop

Yeah, I see that, near 14.2N & 63.2W to be more exact.

[canes04]

Am I missing something? The LLC looks better defined each passing hour.
It still has some work to do as it moves WNW.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

the shallow BAMS has been accurate with this one so far. as long as it struggles to form, it will continue west along the south-favoring path of the global models.
Didn't we see a few days ago that the shear would be hard to get through for a few days before things would get more favorable further west?
I suspect this will spin up, but take a while longer to do so, and end up traversing Cuba rather than going through Hispanola or north of PR as some of the models were saying.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Actually looking much better, rather in a better plAce for development.

[MGC]

That swirl looks to be headed right for you Cycloneye.....batten down the hatches!....MGC

[gatorcane]

naked swirl at 14n 63w on that loop

Yeah, I see that, near 14.2N & 63.2W to be more exact.

I wonder if BEST TRACK will adjust the location to this new location as this is the one that looks like it has more of a circulation than the one that is currently being used (14.8°N, 61.7°W) where nothing appears to be there.

I see the 14.2/63.2W LLC heading a little north of west, maybe 280.

Yeah the system is starting to gradually look better on satellite with more pronounced cyclonic turning in a conolidated area whereas yesterday we saw less of that and stronger trade wind flow.

[Blown Away]

Animated VIS GIF. It appears that this invest is finally on the move again...

At 1200 UTC, 03 September 2013, LOW INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.8°N and 61.7°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 295 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

Looks like it's trying to spin up in that area...Moving slightly north of due west...

[gatorcane]

Am I missing something? The LLC looks better defined each passing hour.
It still has some work to do as it moves WNW.

No it is looking alot better this morning and has a much better-defined circulation when you look at the vis loops.

Could be finally starting to get it's act together...just needs a little more convection around the center

[canes04]

Thanks Gatorcane & Blown Away.
I thought I was the only one seeing this area. I think it finally found a better environment.