WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

https://twitter.com/extremestorms

sad photo showing over 100 families packing a church located just 0.2 miles from the shoreline...this is looking like the storm of the century!

[fogbreath]

I'm relieved my parents' provinces aren't directly in the path of the storm, but very worried for those who will be. My best goes out to all of you

[CrazyC83]

https://twitter.com/extremestorms

sad photo showing over 100 families packing a church located just 0.2 miles from the shoreline...this is looking like the storm of the century!

With all those windows, I doubt that could withstand even a Category 1 easily - forget a Category 5+...

[CrazyC83]

This might be old, but downright scary:

07/0857 UTC 9.9N 130.0E T8.0/8.0 HAIYAN -- West Pacific

[oaba09]

https://twitter.com/extremestorms

sad photo showing over 100 families packing a church located just 0.2 miles from the shoreline...this is looking like the storm of the century!

With all those windows, I doubt that could withstand even a Category 1 easily - forget a Category 5+...

Yeah...those things were made as design pieces...they were not made to withstand typhoons!

[tolakram]

One scary looking storm.

saved loops



Looks to be strengthening as well. Hopefully people in the path can somehow stay safe and find shelter.

[somethingfunny]

I take back what I've said in my previous post..It is not a bright side experiencing this first hand..

It's eerily calm here right now in our area. It's like there's no supertyphoon coming.

Oh God please spare us from great danger.

Where are you located?

Tacloban City, Leyte

How far above sea level are you? What construction is your house and do you plan to stay in it? Do you have supplies ready for what could be at least a week after the storm without any utilities or transportation?

Please be safe. Please update us when you can but prioritize your safety and your family's safety above anything else.

[hurricaneCW]

How many people are in the path of this monster?

[wxman57]

Tacloban City, Leyte

Based upon your stated location and the wind radii we're estimating in Haiyan, I calculated a wind profile that has you possibly seeing winds of 140-170 mph with gusts of 200 mph around 0200UTC tomorrow. It shows a 15+ hour duration of TS winds and about 5 1/2 hrs of potential typhoon conditions starting at 2300 UTC today. Note that these are the max winds projected, not the average winds. Tried to upload the graphic but my web server is down.

[Alyono]

Due tot he ridging north of the system, I am fairly certain the pressure is quite a ways above that of Tip. The Atlantic P/W may be more appropriate here.

Reember, recon found 175 KT at the surface in Megi and the pressure was 890mb

[Alyono]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BYd56iLCUAA4tsv.jpg

https://twitter.com/extremestorms

sad photo showing over 100 families packing a church located just 0.2 miles from the shoreline...this is looking like the storm of the century!

whoever made that evacuation decision should face murder charges after the storm

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Tacloban City, Leyte

Based upon your stated location and the wind radii we're estimating in Haiyan, I calculated a wind profile that has you possibly seeing winds of 140-170 mph with gusts of 200 mph around 0200UTC tomorrow. It shows a 15+ hour duration of TS winds and about 5 1/2 hrs of potential typhoon conditions starting at 2300 UTC today. Note that these are the max winds projected, not the average winds. Tried to upload the graphic but my web server is down.

How about Cebu City?

[Alyono]

no signs of an EWRC

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .93pc.html

[CrazyC83]

How many people are in the path of this monster?

Eastern Visayas (ground zero) has about 4.5 million people.

However, in all the regions in the track, I can see about 50 million people potentially at risk.

[stormstrike]

Where are you located?

Tacloban City, Leyte

How far above sea level are you? What construction is your house and do you plan to stay in it? Do you have supplies ready for what could be at least a week after the storm without any utilities or transportation?

Please be safe. Please update us when you can but prioritize your safety and your family's safety above anything else.

We're not evacuating. Our house is sturdy. I hope.

We have food supplies. Trimmed our trees. And boarded up our windows. Anyway this is the first time that I've seen houses boarded up with plywood in our neighborhood.

By the time I'm writing this. We are already experiencing tropical storm winds plus heavy rains!

Any minute now the electricity will be down. Let's all be safe guys out there especially my fellow countrymen!

[wxman57]

Tacloban City, Leyte

Based upon your stated location and the wind radii we're estimating in Haiyan, I calculated a wind profile that has you possibly seeing winds of 140-170 mph with gusts of 200 mph around 0200UTC tomorrow. It shows a 15+ hour duration of TS winds and about 5 1/2 hrs of potential typhoon conditions starting at 2300 UTC today. Note that these are the max winds projected, not the average winds. Tried to upload the graphic but my web server is down.

How about Cebu City?

Ran one for you, too. Shows peak winds 50-75 mph there. Generally strong TS with the possibility of a brief period of 1-min wind to 75 mph. Of course, this is based on a satellite estimate of wind radii.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

[Alyono]

We're not evacuating. Our house is sturdy. I hope.

We have food supplies. Trimmed our trees. And boarded up our windows. Anyway this is the first time that I've seen houses boarded up with plywood in our neighborhood.

By the time I'm writing this. We are already experiencing tropical storm winds plus heavy rains!

Any minute now the electricity will be down. Let's all be safe guys out there especially my fellow countrymen!

To put the expected winds in perspective.. remember the Moore tornado? That is the wind you will see. Can your house withstand that?

[CrazyC83]

If the track stays inside the Leyte Gulf, this could be a storm surge event for the ages there, especially in Tablocan City. Much of the developed area is at fairly low elevation.

[hurricaneCW]

How many people are in the path of this monster?

Eastern Visayas (ground zero) has about 4.5 million people.

However, in all the regions in the track, I can see about 50 million people potentially at risk.

Wow and they've already had flooding rains and an earthquake to deal with. I imagine this could weaken some before it landfalls as most storms usually do to some extent as it's hard to believe Haiyan will sustain this strength, but it'll probably still be a STY when it impacts those areas.