ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Well I guess if this second flight is still a "go" we will get a chance to find out within a few hours if the system is indeed organizing underneath that deep convection.

This is still technically an invest. It may be that since it still is they do not go ahead with the mission tonight. Low level invest missions do not seem to occur at night. I say "seem" only because I can't definitively say there is a rule that says they can't. (I don't know.) They may simply fly higher, but that is usually what they do once they have found an LLC and it is something. Don't be too surprised if they don't fly tonight. It would not I would think be because they don't think it looks like it needs to be investigated, but rather that they are not going to fly at 1,000 feet at night looking for the LLC and flying higher would not serve the greatest purpose of a recon mission at this point, which is to find an LLC. They might just use the other tools available to them until tomorrow when they safely fly in daylight at a lower altitude.

Or they might take off at 11pm EDT, lol.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well I guess if this second flight is still a "go" we will get a chance to find out within a few hours if the system is indeed organizing underneath that deep convection.

This is still technically an invest. It may be that since it still is they do not go ahead with the mission tonight. Low level invest missions do not seem to occur at night. I say "seem" only because I can't definitively say there is a rule that says they can't. (I don't know.) They may simply fly higher, but that is usually what they do once they have found an LLC and it is something. Don't be too surprised if they don't fly tonight. It would not I would think be because they don't think it looks like it needs to be investigated, but rather that they are not going to fly at 1,000 feet at night looking for the LLC and flying higher would not serve the greatest purpose of a recon mission at this point, which is to find an LLC. They might just use the other tools available to them until tomorrow when they safely fly in daylight at a lower altitude.

Or they might take off at 11pm EDT, lol.

Yeah, I thought I had read where they don't fly invests at night. Guess we will see in the next hour.

[northjaxpro]

I am very confident that Recon will find a moderate TS when they get in there a bit later. Impressive convective ball currently near the LLC. I would find it incredulous if Recon couldn't close thois off now.

[hurrtracker79]

I am very confident that Recon will find a moderate TS when they get in there a bit later. Impressive convective ball currently near the LLC. I would find it incredulous if Recon couldn't close thois off now.

I agree, thinking they will find a 45-50 mph tropical storm.

[bamajammer4eva]

According to Channel 7 in Panama City, Recon is still scheduled. Rare at night for just an invest.

Christopher Smith
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Hurricane Hunters were unable to get a closed circulation. They are schedule to be back out checking out 'Invest 97' after midnight tonight. ‪#‎tropics‬ ‪#‎nwfl‬ ‪#‎pcb‬ ‪#‎flwx‬

[Alyono]

notice that second flight is listed as a CYCLONE flight. It is a fix mission, not an invest.

Almost certainly no recon tonight as there is not a cyclone to fix at the moment

[Hammy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-rgb-long.html

I'm not sure if my eyes are playing tricks on me but it appears that there is inflow now streaming in from the WNW to the east of Cozumel, with something possibly consolidating near 21/86. Hopefully I'm not the only one seeing this, otherwise it is probably the season simply driving me insane.

[Annie Oakley]

notice that second flight is listed as a CYCLONE flight. It is a fix mission, not an invest.

Almost certainly no recon tonight as there is not a cyclone to fix at the moment

Operative words:

CYCLONE flight. It is a fix mission, not an invest.

[fsusurfer]

my buddy is flying out of keesler tomorrow morning on a recon mission... said they have several flights scheduled tomorrow.

[ozonepete]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-rgb-long.html

I'm not sure if my eyes are playing tricks on me but it appears that there is inflow now streaming in from the WNW to the east of Cozumel, with something possibly consolidating near 21/86. Hopefully I'm not the only one seeing this, otherwise it is probably the season simply driving me insane.

I see it too so your eyes are fine.

[Aric Dunn]

Its quite possible that the circ is north of the yucatan channel in the morning.. the mid level circ ( assuming it consolidates under or near it is much farther to the NE than the area that recon was fliying.. going to interesting..

[mpic]

Local Houston mets are saying that we will be spared because of the front coming down from the north. Anything that could change this?

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-rgb-long.html

I'm not sure if my eyes are playing tricks on me but it appears that there is inflow now streaming in from the WNW to the east of Cozumel, with something possibly consolidating near 21/86. Hopefully I'm not the only one seeing this, otherwise it is probably the season simply driving me insane.

I see it too so your eyes are fine.

Thats mostly in the mid level .. very well developed MLC.. low level clouds are the really dark ones almost matching the ocean temp

[Hammy]

I'm assuming at this point that there is no flight tonight and that the next won't be until tomorrow afternoon, which almost seems silly given how much things can change between now and then.

[CronkPSU]

‏@JimCantore 15s

Nice flair up around 97L with excellent outflow. It's trying to go: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif … #Karen

[Frank P]

From just viewing the most recent IR Sat loops looks to me that it (the center) will still clip the NE section of the Yucatan and maybe go inland 50-75 miles or so... I don't think it will shoot the gap... my opinion only..

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[Hurricane Alexis]

I'm guessing all the rain we've had here in SE florida is from 97L. It's still raining hard here and the streets are flooded pretty badly.

[ROCK]

Local Houston mets are saying that we will be spared because of the front coming down from the north. Anything that could change this?

Local Mets would be right.... if this was august then I would be worried..

[floridasun78]

I'm guessing all the rain we've had here in SE florida is from 97L. It's still raining hard here and the streets are flooded pretty badly.

by miami airport bad too and i hear by dadeland real bad their got 7.9 inch rain now new update their saying 10.0 inch rain now

[ROCK]

I don't think it will make the channel either....I see it around 20n 86w but without recon hard to tell where a center is...