ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[USTropics]

NOAA 96 hr surface forecast:

[ninel conde]

taking forever and its sept 03.

[cycloneye]

06z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013090306, , BEST, 0, 147N, 613W, 25, 1009, LO

[Fego]

The low is gone, accordingly with 8am TWD.

THE LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Visible:

[cycloneye]

The low is gone, accordingly with 8am TWD.

THE LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W.

But 8 AM TWO says is near Dominica.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR DOMINICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO

[Fego]

Then Cycloneye, Who is on first????

[alienstorm]

I am getting really skeptical that this will ever develop. There are two areas competing and neither one is winning thus they are both just falling apart.

[Gustywind]

Then Cycloneye, Who is on first????

What does it mean? Who tell the truth?

[cycloneye]

Then Cycloneye, Who is on first????

Even they are puzzuled with this 2013 season.

[Gustywind]

By the way, not much rain here in Guadeloupe. Very light rain yesterday night without lightnings and winds. Whereas, as Martinica, we're always under an yellow alert.

[Gustywind]

Then Cycloneye, Who is on first????

Even they are puzzuled with this 2013 season.

You're may be right on that. 2013 not an easy one for the moment, always full of surprises. Forescating is surely a challenge. That's why we should be on our guard everytime especially in September. Let's wait and see.

[cycloneye]

I would like for Air Force recon to fly this afternoon but I guess they will cancel. But the Global Hawk is flying so there will be data later on.

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

[Fego]

Then Cycloneye, Who is on first????

Even they are puzzuled with this 2013 season.

You're may be right on that. 2013 not an easy one for the moment, always full of surprises. Forescating is surely a challenge. That's why we should be on our guard everytime especially in September. Let's wait and see.

Is more than that. Is an office saying a low is gone (TWD) and another saying the low is there (TWO). Kind of contradictory, having a system with a high chance of rain and flashflood knocking at our doors..

[Javlin]

Well as far as development goes this year and it's a good thing just a few to many ULLs out there this year.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013090312, , BEST, 0, 148N, 617W, 25, 1009, LO

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD numbers...

03/1145 UTC 14.5N 62.9W TOO WEAK 97L
03/0545 UTC 14.8N 61.4W T1.0/1.0 97L

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com

Atlantic Tropical Disturbances to Bring Downpours to Antilles

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

September 03, 2013; 5:13 AM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... s/17348688

A double-barreled slow-moving tropical disturbance will bring downpours and locally gusty squalls to some of the islands of the northern Caribbean this week.

There is good news for folks who live on or are heading to the Atlantic tropical islands in the short range. There are no systems on the maps in the Atlantic as of Monday, Sept. 2, 2013, that are showing signs of explosive development.

However, showers and thunderstorms associated with a couple of weak tropical disturbances will drift toward the west-northwest across the Caribbean this week.

The duo has the potential to bring very isolated disruptions, flash flooding and rough seas and surf.

Rainfall in some areas has been near to above normal since the start of August, despite the lack of tropical storms or powerful hurricanes. So, where downpours persist in these already wet areas, such as Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands, the risk for flash flooding will be higher.

Sporadic downpours and locally gusty squalls will affect parts of the Leeward and Windward islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days.
During the middle of this week, shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to kick up over Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos.

Later in the week, the Bahamas may experience an uptick in showers and locally gusty squalls.

[canes04]

Appears to be organizing this morning. Mid to upper levels improving.
I do not post to often, but what a strange season to date.

Remember it only takes 1 and we have a few Months to go!

[abajan]

I think I heard on the news that some parts of Barbados had 5 inches of rain yesterday (there was certainly flooding) and with all the cumulonimbus clouds around, there can easily be a repeat of that. Dead calm here right now and every once in a while there's a roll of thunder.

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