ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Looking at the visible satellite, does it meet T5.0 Dvorak standards? I'm torn between T4.5 and T5.0.

Are you also following CIMSS, Crazy? They have 4.6 with 79.6 knots right now and they update every 30 minutes I believe.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html

Yes, but that is automated. I don't normally pay too much attention to that except in eye setups.

Based on all data, I would go 85 kt for the intensity right now.

Yeah, I know, craze, but I like the fact that their algorithm tends to be conservative. So after looking at the last SAT numbers and CIMSS it makes sense to go with 85 knots.

[Hammy]

How possible is it that Humberto could reach major hurricane status? I have a bet going.

[CrazyC83]

11/1745 UTC 17.4N 28.6W T4.5/4.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

[Spin]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309111130.GIF

convection now waning again significantly similar to yesterday, so it is still mixing out the dry air, but seems like it has most of it out as there is another new convective burst forming near the center, with some small spots near -80C.

Kind of expected because of the DMIN.

Humberto's turning to the north.

AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HUMBERTO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED SHARP TURN
TO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.

[CrazyC83]

How possible is it that Humberto could reach major hurricane status? I have a bet going.

I'd say there is a chance, although it would require another strong run during tonight/tomorrow morning's DMAX and holding the strong core.

[ozonepete]

How possible is it that Humberto could reach major hurricane status? I have a bet going.

It has less than 24 hours before the dry air and then the shear get to it. I hope you bet against it.

[cycloneye]

75kts at 18z Best Track.

AL, 09, 2013091118, , BEST, 0, 175N, 291W, 75, 986, HU

[Hammy]

How possible is it that Humberto could reach major hurricane status? I have a bet going.

It has less than 24 hours before the dry air and then the shear get to it. I hope you bet against it.

My bet is that there will be no majors in September, but I wouldn't mind losing since its not a high cost bet.

[ozonepete]

How possible is it that Humberto could reach major hurricane status? I have a bet going.

It has less than 24 hours before the dry air and then the shear get to it. I hope you bet against it.

My bet is that there will be no majors in September, but I wouldn't mind losing since its not a high cost bet.

Lol, that's really risky. Glad you didn't bet a lot since easterly waves are very active now over Africa and atmosphere over MDR seems to be moistening and becoming less stable.

[Hammy]

Lol, that's really risky. Glad you didn't bet a lot since easterly waves are very active now over Africa and atmosphere over MDR seems to be moistening and becoming less stable.

only $5

Humberto looks like its firing off some pretty strong convection in the western eyewall now, will be interesting to see what happens when DMAX arrives later this evening and tonight.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309111300.GIF

[supercane4867]

According to model trend Humberto might eventually reach major hurricane status just not in the near future

[hurricanes1234]

Impressive storm right now. 85 mph is fairly near to Category 2 status.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the ACE units that Humberto has gotten so far? Surely he will help recuperate the Atlantic ACE from the way down it was.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the ACE units that Humberto has gotten so far? Surely he will help recuperate the Atlantic ACE from the way down it was.

Found the Wiki numbers.

Code: Select all

Adv.

Date

Time

Maximum Sustained Winds (kt)

ACE (104 kt2)

1 8 September 5 pm AST 25 0
2 8 September 11 pm AST 30 0
3 9 September 5 am AST 35 0.1225
4 9 September 11 am AST 40 0.1600
5 9 September 5 pm AST 45 0.2025
6 9 September 11 pm AST 50 0.2500
7 10 September 5 am AST 55 0.3025
8 10 September 11 am AST 55 0.3025
9 10 September 5 pm AST 60 0.3600
10 10 September 11 pm AST 60 0.3600
11 11 September 5 am AST 65 0.4225
12 11 September 11 am AST 70 0.4900
Total       2.9725


[Ntxw]

Does anyone has the ACE units that Humberto has gotten so far? Surely he will help recuperate the Atlantic ACE from the way down it was.

Latest update from Ryan Maue's site has 3.5275 for Humberto bringing the season to 13.305, normal being 52 putting us at 26% which is a rise from the 18% before Humberto.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the ACE units that Humberto has gotten so far? Surely he will help recuperate the Atlantic ACE from the way down it was.

Latest update from Ryan Maue's site has 3.5275 for Humberto bringing the season to 13.305, normal being 52 putting us at 26% which is a rise from the 18% before Humberto.

Why is difference between the numbers from Maue and Wiki?

[Extratropical94]

Does anyone has the ACE units that Humberto has gotten so far? Surely he will help recuperate the Atlantic ACE from the way down it was.

Latest update from Ryan Maue's site has 3.5275 for Humberto bringing the season to 13.305, normal being 52 putting us at 26% which is a rise from the 18% before Humberto.

Why is difference between the numbers from Maue and Wiki?

I guess Ryan Maue uses Best Track data and Wikipedia takes the intensities from the advisories until the cyclone reports are out.

[hurricanes1234]

I see some very cold cloudtops at the centre, everywhere around it, though, the cloudtops are a lot warmer. Reminds me of those large wPac systems. To me, it looks impressive, what are the estimates right now, other than the 18:00 UTC Best Track?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

As far as the strength goes, I would say cat 2 is very possible tonight since the circulation envelope seems to have walled off the dry air pretty well, it has really good symmetry with nice spiral banding and it looks like it might do an EWR overnight if convection really fires during DMAX. Is cat 3 out of the question? it has a shot for the same reasons I just gave but I'd bet against it since it's running out of time before the dry air and shear come into play.

[HurricaneDREW92]

What do you guys think we'll see at 5pm? 75kts, 80 maybe?