ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Really starting to look impressive.

13:45Z

[floridasun78]

did we break record or did it form to hurr before 8am deadline?

[Extratropical94]

did we break record or did it form to hurr before 8am deadline?

Well, the best track showed him becoming a hurricane at exactly 8am EDT, so Humberto is tied with Gustav.
The advisory where Humberto was upgraded however was already issued at 5am EDT, so no record for now. It all can change with post-season analysis, though.

[mrbagyo]

TXNT22 KNES 111219
TCSNTL

A. 09L (HUMBERTO)

B. 11/1145Z

C. 16.2N

D. 28.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A BANDING TYPE EYE WHICH
LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE CENTER LOCATION. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE INSTANTANEOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE. BANDING OF 12/1O IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY YIELDS A DT OF 4.0 BUT CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN B IN EIR IMAGERY
WHICH SUGGESTS A DT OF 5.0. DT IS SET TO 5.0 DUE TO CONFIDENCE IN CENTER
LOCATION. GIVEN THE CONFLICTING DTS THE FT IS BASED ON A MET OF 4.5. PT
IS ALSO 4.5.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/0951Z 15.8N 29.1W SSMIS


...TURK

[Hurricane_Luis]

The NHC on Facebook

There has been a lot of interest as to whether 2013 would possibly break the record for the latest formation of the season's first hurricane, at least in the satellite era (with continuous coverage of the entire Atlantic basin available via the GOES satellite).
The record remains intact. NHC upgraded Humberto to a hurricane in its advisory issued at 5 a.m. EDT this morning, September 11. So in the satellite era, 2013’s Humberto ranks second for the latest first hurricane formation of the season. Hurricane Gustav formed just a few hours later, at 8 a.m. EDT on September 11, 2002.
Keep in mind, NHC always conducts a post-storm analysis of each tropical cyclone. Small adjustments on the final positions and intensities are usually made, but sometimes substantial adjustments are made based on information that might not have been available in real time. Thus, the final determination of the time of Humberto’s development into a hurricane will not be made until the post-storm analysis is complete. This could take several weeks to months from now.

[Hammy]

I could not help but be amused by the headline, showing even CNN was disappointed that the record wasn't broken.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/11/us/hurricane-season-dud/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
"Hurricane Humberto ruins shot at a 2013 record"

[JGrin87]

where can i get updated satellite images for Humberto. The NHC/NOAA website updates once every 3 hours or so. I am looking for one that updates more frequently.

[euro6208]

I could not help but be amused by the headline, showing even CNN was disappointed that the record wasn't broken.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/11/us/hurricane-season-dud/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
"Hurricane Humberto ruins shot at a 2013 record"

i would be very bored if this were to happen in the WPAC...record late typhoon formation broken or not in the month of september? good thing it hasn't happen...

[supercane4867]

where can i get updated satellite images for Humberto. The NHC/NOAA website updates once every 3 hours or so. I am looking for one that updates more frequently.

NRL TC Page
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[supercane4867]

Recent microwave pass suggests Humberto has a fairly compact structure
It should continue to strengthen a lot more if can take advantage of the current environment

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynami ... W.99pc.jpg

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the visible satellite, does it meet T5.0 Dvorak standards? I'm torn between T4.5 and T5.0.

[Hurricane_Luis]

where can i get updated satellite images for Humberto. The NHC/NOAA website updates once every 3 hours or so. I am looking for one that updates more frequently.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
http://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/
http://en.allmetsat.com/images/north-america.php
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp
And of course.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

I'd bookmark them, might come in handy.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Looking at the visible satellite, does it meet T5.0 Dvorak standards? I'm torn between T4.5 and T5.0.

These guys are going with T4.5.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/HUMBERTO.html

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the visible satellite, does it meet T5.0 Dvorak standards? I'm torn between T4.5 and T5.0.

These guys are going with T4.5.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/HUMBERTO.html

That was 5 hours ago.

[ronjon]

Too funny - latest GFS model has Humberto circling in the central Atlantic ocean the next 16 days! Wow, that'll really jack up the ACE this year, lol.

[supercane4867]

Too funny - latest GFS model has Humberto circling in the central Atlantic ocean the next 16 days! Wow, that'll really jack up the ACE this year, lol.

Which is not unrealistic, the ECMWF also has been showing similar type of setup

[ozonepete]

Looking at the visible satellite, does it meet T5.0 Dvorak standards? I'm torn between T4.5 and T5.0.

These guys are going with T4.5.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/HUMBERTO.html

Are you also following CIMSS, Crazy? They have 4.6 with 79.6 knots right now and they update every 30 minutes I believe.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html

[Hammy]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309111130.GIF

convection now waning again significantly similar to yesterday, so it is still mixing out the dry air, but seems like it has most of it out as there is another new convective burst forming near the center, with some small spots near -80C.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Did Humberto tie the record for the latest formation of the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin in the satellite era? Possibly. I wrote up an indepth article on my Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... 943&type=1

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the visible satellite, does it meet T5.0 Dvorak standards? I'm torn between T4.5 and T5.0.

These guys are going with T4.5.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/HUMBERTO.html

Are you also following CIMSS, Crazy? They have 4.6 with 79.6 knots right now and they update every 30 minutes I believe.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html

Yes, but that is automated. I don't normally pay too much attention to that except in eye setups.

Based on all data, I would go 85 kt for the intensity right now.